2020 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Detroit LionsWinner

Atlanta Falcons

ATL -1 upsetU 54 ✓DomeFalcons closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Detroit Lions 23–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, ATL +56% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:02DET — ATL DET ball · 2nd & 10ATL 74%

(:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 88-T.Hockenson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DET-80-D.Amendola, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:02ATL +56% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 88-T.Hockenson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DET-80-D.Amendola, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q4 · 5:39DET +28% win prob(5:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 39 for -9 yards (95-R.Okwara). FUMBLES (95-R.Okwara) [95-R.Okwara], RECOVERED by DET-90-T.Flowers at ATL 36. 90-T.Flowers to ATL 32 for 4 yards (77-J.Carpenter).
Q4 · 7:37DET +23% win prob(7:37) 5-M.Prater 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q4 · 0:00ATL +18% win prob5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-3-J.Fox. Penalty on ATL, Illegal Formation, declined.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Falcons
Offensive plays	55	71
Total yards	386	390 (edge)
Yards per play	7.0 (edge)	5.5
Expected points added / play	0.12 (edge)	0.08
Success rate	44%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	64%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.36 (edge)	0.24
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.30	-0.20 (edge)
Third downs	3/10	7/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	18	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Falcons outgained Lions 390–386 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

25/36, 340 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

12.4 expected points added · +13.3% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

31/42, 338 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

10.7 expected points added · +8.1% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Todd GurleyRB

23 att, 63 yds, 2 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Adrian PetersonRB

11 att, 29 yds, 0 TD

-4.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Kenny GolladayWR

6/7 for 114 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Julio JonesWR

8/9 for 97 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 18	8	18	2:29	Punt
2	DET	DET 24	4	9	1:47	Punt
3	ATL	ATL 20	4	7	1:49	Punt
4	DET	DET 29	10	67	4:39	Touchdown
5	ATL	ATL 18	5	2	0:56	Punt
6	DET	DET 37	4	1	1:37	Punt
7	ATL	ATL 11	14	79	5:48	Touchdown
8	DET	DET 21	9	64	4:38	Turnover on downs
9	ATL	ATL 2	15	98	5:48	Touchdown
10	DET	DET 25	6	48	0:29	Turnover on downs
11	DET	DET 14	12	63	7:26	Turnover on downs
12	ATL	ATL 15	7	12	2:47	Punt
13	DET	DET 31	4	4	0:57	Punt
14	ATL	ATL 6	13	96	6:53	Turnover on downs
15	DET	DET 13	9	54	4:25	Turnover on downs
16	ATL	ATL 36	4	0	2:03	Fumble
17	DET	ATL 32	4	1	2:13	Turnover on downs
18	ATL	ATL 24	11	78	2:12	Touchdown
19	DET	DET 25	10	75	1:04	Touchdown

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 98 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	25/36	340	1	0	2	12.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Adrian Peterson	11	29	2.6	0	-4.8
D'Andre Swift	9	27	3.0	1	-1.2
Matthew Stafford	1	8	8.0	0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kenny Golladay	6	7	114	0	22%	6.9
Marvin Jones	5	6	80	0	19%	6.3
Danny Amendola	3	4	62	0	13%	3.1
T.J. Hockenson	5	6	59	1	19%	4.2
D'Andre Swift	4	5	21	0	16%	-1.6
Isaac Nauta	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.9
Adrian Peterson	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.5
Jamal Agnew	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Marvin Hall	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jayron Kearse	6	1	0
Jamie Collins	2	4	0
Darryl Roberts	6	0	0
Danny Shelton	1	4	0
Tracy Walker III	3	2	0
Reggie Ragland	2	2	0
Da'Shawn Hand	3	1	0
Jahlani Tavai	2	2	0
Amani Oruwariye	3	1	0
Jeff Okudah	4	0	1

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	31/42	338	1	0	2	10.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Todd Gurley	23	63	2.7	2	-2.4
Brian Hill	2	3	1.5	0	-0.9
Olamide Zaccheaus	1	0	0.0	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Julio Jones	8	9	97	0	23%	6.6
Calvin Ridley	5	7	69	1	18%	6.5
Hayden Hurst	6	7	68	0	18%	8.5
Russell Gage	6	7	54	0	18%	1.3
Brian Hill	3	3	27	0	8%	1.1
Todd Gurley	2	3	19	0	8%	0.2
Brandon Powell	1	2	4	0	5%	-1.3
Ito Smith	0	1	0	0	3%	-3.3
Luke Stocker	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Keanu Neal	9	1	1.0	0
Foyesade Oluokun	4	5	0.0	1
Kendall Sheffield	3	3	0.0	0
Steven Means	2	3	0.0	0
Isaiah Oliver	2	2	0.0	0
A.J. Terrell	1	3	0.0	0
Dante Fowler	2	1	0.0	0
Deion Jones	2	1	1.0	0
Mykal Walker	2	1	0.0	0
Sharrod Neasman	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -1
Closing total: 54
DET moneyline: +102
ATL moneyline: -113

Falcons closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 54; the game landed 45 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: DET 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Matt Patricia vs Raheem Morris