2020 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 2020 · Arrowhead Stadium

Carolina Panthers

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -10 no coverO 51.5 ✓19 mph windChiefs closed -10, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 33–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 11:05, CAR +15% win probability on one snap. Played in 19 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 11:05CAR — KC KC ball · 4th & 20KC 62%

(11:05) 7-H.Butker 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 11:05CAR +15% win prob(11:05) 7-H.Butker 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Q3 · 6:09KC +14% win prob(6:09) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce to CAR 12 for 44 yards (24-R.Douglas).
Q4 · 0:02CAR +11% win prob(:02) 4-J.Slye 67 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.
Q2 · 0:11CAR +11% win prob(:11) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 31-Darr.Williams. PENALTY on KC-87-T.Kelce, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 41 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Chiefs
Offensive plays	75	57
Total yards	435 (edge)	397
Yards per play	5.8	7.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.32 (edge)	0.26
Success rate	51%	53% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	82%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.43 (edge)	0.32
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	-0.06
Third downs	7/16	7/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	22
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

30/45, 372 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

15.4 expected points added · +5.6% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Teddy BridgewaterQB

36/49, 310 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

13.6 expected points added · +14.6% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

18 att, 69 yds, 1 TD

-0.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB

5 att, 14 yds, 0 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

10/12 for 159 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 9.4 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Tyreek HillWR

9/18 for 113 yds, 2 TD

41% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 25	17	70	8:53	Touchdown
2	KC	KC 25	13	39	4:29	Turnover on downs
3	CAR	CAR 26	11	74	3:59	Touchdown
4	KC	KC 25	7	38	1:38	Turnover on downs
5	CAR	CAR 25	6	34	3:32	Punt
6	KC	KC 35	8	65	3:44	Touchdown
7	CAR	CAR 21	10	35	2:59	Turnover on downs
8	KC	KC 25	8	62	0:46	Fumble
9	KC	KC 25	9	41	4:00	Turnover on downs
10	CAR	CAR 38	8	29	4:01	Turnover on downs
11	KC	KC 41	6	59	2:17	Touchdown
12	CAR	CAR 25	8	1	3:23	Punt
13	KC	KC 31	7	64	1:56	Touchdown
14	CAR	CAR 30	11	70	4:01	Touchdown
15	KC	CAR 39	4	27	2:42	Turnover on downs
16	KC	CAR 25	16	76	5:47	Touchdown
17	KC	CAR 42	7	1	0:27	Punt
18	CAR	CAR 9	8	47	1:26	Turnover on downs

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 76 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	36/49	310	2	0	2	13.6
Joseph Charlton	1/1	28	0	0	0	4.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	18	69	3.8	1	-0.0
Teddy Bridgewater	2	19	9.5	1	6.9
Curtis Samuel	3	13	4.3	0	-0.5
Mike Davis	1	3	3.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Curtis Samuel	9	9	105	1	20%	5.2
Christian McCaffrey	10	10	82	1	23%	10.3
Robbie Chosen	9	13	63	0	30%	1.2
Mike Davis	5	6	34	0	14%	-0.2
Brandon Zylstra	1	1	28	0	2%	4.7
D.J. Moore	2	3	18	0	7%	3.0
Ian Thomas	1	2	8	0	5%	0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Sam Franklin	4	3	1.0	0
Shaq Thompson	6	1	0.0	1
Rasul Douglas	5	0	0.0	0
Jermaine Carter	2	2	0.0	0
Derrick Brown	3	1	0.0	0
Corn Elder	3	0	0.0	0
Brian Burns	2	0	1.0	0
Donte Jackson	2	0	0.0	0
Tre Boston	2	0	0.0	0
Tahir Whitehead	1	0	0.0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	30/45	372	4	0	2	15.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	5	14	2.8	-0.6
Tyreek Hill	1	8	8.0	0.6
Le'Veon Bell	4	8	2.0	-0.6
Patrick Mahomes	1	6	6.0	1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	10	12	159	0	27%	9.4
Tyreek Hill	9	18	113	2	41%	5.3
Mecole Hardman	3	4	48	0	9%	2.6
Demarcus Robinson	3	3	34	1	7%	0.4
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	3	5	20	1	11%	1.1
Darrel Williams	1	1	3	0	2%	-1.1
Le'Veon Bell	1	1	-5	0	2%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Daniel Sorensen	8	2	0
Bashaud Breeland	7	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	4	2	1
Anthony Hitchens	4	2	0
Tanoh Kpassagnon	4	1	0
Charvarius Ward	4	1	1
Armani Watts	5	0	1
Derrick Nnadi	3	2	0
Ben Niemann	3	1	0
Rashad Fenton	2	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -10
Closing total: 51.5
CAR moneyline: +365
KC moneyline: -445

Chiefs closed -10, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 64 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 71°F, wind 19 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: CAR 10 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: Matt Rhule vs Andy Reid

Wind at 19 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.