2020 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 2020 · State Farm Stadium

Miami DolphinsWinner

Arizona Cardinals

ARI -6 upsetO 49 ✓DomeCardinals closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Miami Dolphins 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:58, MIA +30% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:58MIA — ARI ARI ball · 4th & 1MIA 54%

(1:58) 5-Z.Gonzalez 49 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:58MIA +30% win prob(1:58) 5-Z.Gonzalez 49 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.
Q1 · 10:48MIA +23% win prob(10:48) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 42 for -13 yards (91-E.Ogbah). FUMBLES (91-E.Ogbah) [91-E.Ogbah], RECOVERED by MIA-90-S.Lawson at ARI 36. 90-S.Lawson for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 5:20MIA +19% win prob(5:20) (Shotgun) 79-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 29-C.Edmonds up the middle to MIA 40 for no gain (92-Z.Sieler, 44-E.Roberts).
Q4 · 3:30ARI +15% win prob(3:30) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 13-C.Kirk to MIA 40 for 35 yards (28-B.McCain).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Cardinals
Offensive plays	53	64
Total yards	314	442 (edge)
Yards per play	5.9	6.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.15	0.15 (edge)
Success rate	45%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	62%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.37 (edge)	0.34
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23	-0.04 (edge)
Third downs	4/8 (edge)	5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Cardinals outgained Dolphins 442–314 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

21/26, 283 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

9.6 expected points added · +12.9% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

20/28, 248 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.8 expected points added · +8.2% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

11 att, 106 yds, 1 TD

10.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Chase EdmondsRB

25 att, 70 yds, 0 TD

-10.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Christian KirkWR

5/8 for 123 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

DeVante ParkerWR

6/7 for 64 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 25	5	6	1:57	Punt
2	ARI	ARI 25	5	11	2:26	Defensive touchdown
3	ARI	ARI 25	12	55	3:46	Touchdown
4	MIA	MIA 25	12	65	5:56	Touchdown
5	ARI	ARI 25	6	80	1:32	Touchdown
6	MIA	MIA 20	10	80	4:05	Touchdown
7	ARI	ARI 25	12	56	5:12	Turnover on downs
8	MIA	MIA 25	7	18	3:16	Punt
9	ARI	ARI 23	4	14	1:04	Punt
10	MIA	MIA 36	6	26	0:46	Turnover on downs
11	ARI	ARI 13	9	69	3:12	Touchdown
12	MIA	MIA 20	8	3	3:10	Punt
13	ARI	ARI 16	12	80	6:10	Touchdown
14	MIA	MIA 7	12	78	6:09	Touchdown
15	ARI	ARI 27	11	33	6:04	Turnover on downs
16	MIA	MIA 40	5	28	1:45	Turnover on downs
17	ARI	ARI 25	6	44	1:37	Turnover on downs
18	MIA	MIA 39	5	10	1:53	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 80 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	20/28	248	2	0	3	10.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Salvon Ahmed	7	38	5.4	0	0.9
Tua Tagovailoa	7	35	5.0	0	0.8
Jordan Howard	10	19	1.9	1	-3.4
Patrick Laird	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVante Parker	6	7	64	0	27%	4.5
Preston Williams	4	5	60	1	19%	5.4
Mike Gesicki	3	4	42	0	15%	2.3
Jakeem Grant	4	5	35	0	19%	0.1
Durham Smythe	1	1	19	0	4%	2.2
Patrick Laird	1	1	17	0	4%	1.2
Mack Hollins	1	1	11	1	4%	1.9
Adam Shaheen	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.4
Malcolm Perry	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jerome Baker	7	0	0.0	0
Eric Rowe	5	0	0.0	0
Byron Jones	5	0	0.0	0
Elandon Roberts	3	2	0.0	0
Emmanuel Ogbah	4	1	1.0	1
Kyle Van Noy	4	1	0.0	1
Bobby McCain	4	0	0.0	0
Xavien Howard	4	0	0.0	0
Shaq Lawson	2	1	0.0	0
Zach Sieler	2	1	0.0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	21/26	283	3	0	1	9.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kyler Murray	11	106	9.6	1	10.6
Chase Edmonds	25	70	2.8	0	-10.1
D.J. Foster	1	2	2.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian Kirk	5	8	123	1	31%	8.6
Larry Fitzgerald	4	5	54	0	19%	3.6
DeAndre Hopkins	3	3	30	0	12%	3.4
Darrell Daniels	1	1	21	1	4%	2.4
Chase Edmonds	3	3	18	0	12%	-0.1
Dan Arnold	1	1	16	0	4%	0.9
Andy Isabella	2	3	10	0	12%	-1.4
D.J. Foster	1	1	7	0	4%	0.7
Maxx Williams	1	1	4	1	4%	0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordan Hicks	4	3	0.0	0
Patrick Peterson	6	0	0.0	0
De'Vondre Campbell	6	0	1.0	0
Haason Reddick	3	2	0.0	0
Markus Golden	2	3	1.0	1
Budda Baker	2	2	0.0	0
Isaiah Simmons	4	0	0.0	0
Jalen Thompson	3	0	0.0	1
Jace Whittaker	2	0	0.0	0
Corey Peters	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ARI -6
Closing total: 49
MIA moneyline: +211
ARI moneyline: -241

Cardinals closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49; the game landed 65 — over by 16.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: MIA 7 days · ARI 14 days
Coaches: Brian Flores vs Kliff Kingsbury