2021 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 17, 2021 · Tottenham Stadium

Miami Dolphins

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

MIA -2.5 upsetU 47.5 ✓Dolphins closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Jacksonville Jaguars 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:49, MIA +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:49MIA — JAX MIA ball · 4th & 1MIA 55%

(1:49) (Shotgun) 34-M.Brown right tackle to MIA 46 for no gain (41-J.Allen, 49-C.Russell). Official measurement ruled short of the line to gain, turnover on downs.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:49MIA +25% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 34-M.Brown right tackle to MIA 46 for no gain (41-J.Allen, 49-C.Russell). Official measurement ruled short of the line to gain, turnover on downs.
Q4 · 0:05JAX +19% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 10-L.Shenault to MIA 35 for 9 yards (29-Br.Jones).
Q4 · 0:01JAX +16% win prob(:01) 15-M.Wright 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Q3 · 1:18MIA +15% win prob(1:18) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 21-N.Lawson at 50. 21-N.Lawson to MIA 39 for 11 yards (86-M.Hollins).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Jaguars
Offensive plays	67	62
Total yards	431 (edge)	396
Yards per play	6.4 (edge)	6.4
Expected points added / play	0.13 (edge)	0.09
Success rate	48% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	75%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.27 (edge)	0.23
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	-0.26 (edge)
Third downs	9/17 (edge)	3/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	8
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	20
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1	1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

33/47, 329 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

8.6 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

25/41, 319 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

9.4 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

17 att, 73 yds, 1 TD

-4.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Malcolm BrownRB

5 att, 24 yds, 0 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Mike GesickiTE

8/9 for 115 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Marvin JonesWR

7/10 for 100 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 25	15	85	7:15	Touchdown
2	JAX	JAX 22	9	56	3:56	Turnover on downs
3	MIA	MIA 19	10	76	4:34	Turnover on downs
4	JAX	JAX 25	5	7	1:36	Punt
5	MIA	MIA 35	5	22	2:06	Punt
6	JAX	JAX 13	4	3	1:44	Punt
7	MIA	JAX 38	8	32	3:11	Turnover on downs
8	JAX	JAX 25	10	54	3:33	Punt
9	MIA	MIA 3	4	9	0:20	Punt
10	JAX	MIA 49	7	49	1:05	Touchdown
11	MIA	MIA 25	7	35	0:40	Turnover on downs
12	JAX	JAX 25	7	65	2:31	Touchdown
13	MIA	MIA 23	11	42	6:28	Punt
14	JAX	JAX 18	8	48	4:43	Fumble
15	MIA	MIA 34	1	0	0:11	Interception
16	JAX	MIA 39	5	30	1:52	Turnover on downs
17	MIA	MIA 9	8	88	3:53	Touchdown
18	JAX	JAX 13	7	24	1:39	Punt
19	MIA	MIA 25	5	21	2:04	Punt
20	JAX	JAX 20	9	44	2:59	Turnover on downs
21	MIA	MIA 25	8	21	1:58	Turnover on downs
22	JAX	MIA 46	5	16	1:42	Turnover on downs

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 88 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	33/47	329	2	1	0	8.6
Jacoby Brissett	1/1	25	0	0	0	2.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Malcolm Brown	5	24	4.8	-1.5
Tua Tagovailoa	3	22	7.3	2.4
Salvon Ahmed	7	22	3.1	-0.8
Myles Gaskin	5	9	1.8	-2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Gesicki	8	9	115	0	19%	5.2
Jaylen Waddle	10	13	70	2	28%	0.3
Mack Hollins	4	5	61	0	11%	3.9
Durham Smythe	5	6	59	0	13%	4.0
Salvon Ahmed	1	2	15	0	4%	0.5
Albert Wilson	2	2	14	0	4%	1.5
Cethan Carter	1	1	8	0	2%	0.3
Malcolm Brown	1	1	7	0	2%	0.0
Myles Gaskin	2	6	5	0	13%	-3.7
Isaiah Ford	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5
Hunter Long	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jerome Baker	5	3	0.0	0
Jevon Holland	3	2	0.0	1
Andrew Van Ginkel	3	1	0.0	1
Elandon Roberts	2	2	0.0	0
Justin Coleman	4	0	0.0	0
Brandon Jones	3	1	0.0	0
Noah Igbinoghene	4	0	0.0	0
Mack Hollins	3	0	0.0	0
Christian Wilkins	2	1	1.0	0
Emmanuel Ogbah	1	1	1.0	1

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	25/41	319	1	0	2	9.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Robinson	17	73	4.3	1	-4.2
Trevor Lawrence	2	11	5.5	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marvin Jones	7	10	100	1	25%	8.5
Jamal Agnew	5	6	78	0	15%	6.0
Laviska Shenault Jr.	6	10	54	0	25%	1.3
James Robinson	3	4	28	0	10%	0.8
Dan Arnold	2	5	27	0	13%	-0.7
Luke Farrell	1	1	21	0	3%	1.5
Chris Manhertz	1	1	11	0	3%	0.8
Jacob Hollister	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
Tavon Austin	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.0
Laquon Treadwell	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Rayshawn Jenkins	7	3	0	1
Damien Wilson	7	3	0	0
Andrew Wingard	5	2	0	0
Josh Hines-Allen	2	3	0	1
Nevin Lawson	3	2	1	2
Shaquill Griffin	4	0	0	0
Tre Herndon	2	2	0	0
Chapelle Russell	2	2	0	0
Rudy Ford	3	0	0	0
Malcom Brown	1	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -2.5
Closing total: 47.5
MIA moneyline: -122
JAX moneyline: +110

Dolphins closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 43 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Tottenham Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 63°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: MIA 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Brian Flores vs Urban Meyer