2021 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 31, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Carolina PanthersWinner

Atlanta Falcons

ATL -2.5 upsetU 47 ✓Falcons closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Carolina Panthers 19–13. Biggest swing: Q4 14:15, CAR +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 14:15CAR — ATL ATL ball · 4th & 2ATL 52%

(14:15) 7-Y.Koo 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 14:15CAR +17% win prob(14:15) 7-Y.Koo 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.
Q4 · 1:58CAR +14% win prob(1:58) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 9-S.Gilmore [4-J.Carter] at CAR 15. 9-S.Gilmore to CAR 15 for no gain (8-K.Pitts).
Q2 · 3:42CAR +11% win prob(3:42) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle intended for 81-H.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 7-S.Thompson at CAR 15. 7-S.Thompson pushed ob at CAR 25 for 10 yards (85-L.Smith).
Q3 · 0:36ATL +9% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 4-T.Sharpe to CAR 35 for 9 yards (21-J.Chinn).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Falcons
Offensive plays	71	50
Total yards	333 (edge)	213
Yards per play	4.7 (edge)	4.3
Expected points added / play	0.06 (edge)	-0.23
Success rate	49% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	41%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.22 (edge)	-0.28
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05 (edge)	-0.13
Third downs	10/17 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.23.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

20/27, 146 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-8.3 expected points added · +5.2% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Sam DarnoldQB

13/24, 129 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

1.3 expected points added · -13.9% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

24 att, 82 yds, 1 TD

-4.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Sam DarnoldQB

8 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

6.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

4/8 for 59 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 1.9 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Tajae SharpeWR

5/6 for 58 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 25	2	0	0:04	Fumble
2	ATL	CAR 26	4	-2	1:26	Turnover on downs
3	CAR	CAR 25	16	64	7:17	Turnover on downs
4	ATL	ATL 20	5	8	1:25	Punt
5	CAR	CAR 17	4	8	1:27	Punt
6	ATL	ATL 39	9	53	4:23	Touchdown
7	CAR	CAR 25	9	52	4:45	Turnover on downs
8	ATL	ATL 25	11	43	5:41	Interception
9	CAR	CAR 25	7	21	1:48	Punt
10	ATL	ATL 13	4	9	1:20	Punt
11	CAR	CAR 27	5	34	0:24	Turnover on downs
12	ATL	ATL 25	6	20	2:45	Punt
13	CAR	CAR 17	16	73	8:42	Turnover on downs
14	ATL	ATL 25	11	35	4:23	Turnover on downs
15	CAR	CAR 35	16	70	7:40	Touchdown
16	ATL	ATL 25	5	-8	1:25	Punt
17	CAR	CAR 37	4	5	1:58	Punt
18	ATL	ATL 25	6	45	1:15	Interception
19	CAR	CAR 15	4	6	1:02	Punt
20	ATL	ATL 40	2	10	0:34	Turnover on downs
21	CAR	ATL 46	2	0	0:16	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 73 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	13/24	129	0	0	0	1.3
P.J. Walker	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chuba Hubbard	24	82	3.4	1	-4.2
Sam Darnold	8	66	8.3	0	6.6
Ameer Abdullah	8	31	3.9	0	0.1
Royce Freeman	6	25	4.2	0	0.8
P.J. Walker	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	4	8	59	33%	1.9
Ameer Abdullah	3	5	35	21%	1.1
Tommy Tremble	3	4	18	17%	1.7
Ian Thomas	1	1	10	4%	-0.2
Chuba Hubbard	1	2	9	8%	-0.6
Royce Freeman	0	1	0	4%	-0.6
Robbie Chosen	0	1	0	4%	-0.5
Keith Kirkwood	0	1	0	4%	-0.3
Shi Smith	1	1	-2	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shaq Thompson	8	2	0.0	1	1
Jermaine Carter	3	4	0.0	0	0
Jeremy Chinn	4	1	0.0	0	1
Haason Reddick	2	1	1.0	0	0
Frankie Luvu	1	2	0.5	0	0
Brian Burns	1	2	0.5	0	0
Stephon Gilmore	1	1	0.0	1	1
Morgan Fox	1	1	0.0	0	0
Derrick Brown	2	0	0.0	0	1
Donte Jackson	2	0	0.0	0	1

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	20/27	146	1	2	3	-8.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Mike Davis	9	44	4.9	0.2
Cordarrelle Patterson	9	35	3.9	-1.5
Matt Ryan	2	3	1.5	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tajae Sharpe	5	6	58	0	22%	5.1
Cordarrelle Patterson	5	5	37	1	19%	6.3
Mike Davis	5	6	22	0	22%	-3.2
Kyle Pitts	2	6	13	0	22%	-6.8
Olamide Zaccheaus	1	1	12	0	4%	0.7
Hayden Hurst	2	3	4	0	11%	-5.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	9	6	0
Deion Jones	6	4	0
Erik Harris	5	2	2
Tyeler Davison	5	1	0
Jonathan Bullard	1	3	0
Grady Jarrett	2	2	0
Marlon Davidson	3	1	0
Mike Pennel	1	2	0
A.J. Terrell	3	0	0
Jacob Tuioti-Mariner	1	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -2.5
Closing total: 47
CAR moneyline: +117
ATL moneyline: -129

Falcons closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47; the game landed 32 — under by 15.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: CAR 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Matt Rhule vs Arthur Smith

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.