2021 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 31, 2021 · Lumen Field

Jacksonville Jaguars

Seattle SeahawksWinner

SEA -4 ✓U 44 ✓Seahawks closed -4 and covered, winning by 24.

Seattle Seahawks 31–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:13, JAX +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:13JAX — SEA JAX ball · 3rd & 9SEA 59%

(10:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at SEA 49 for -11 yards (26-R.Neal).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:13JAX +10% win prob(10:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at SEA 49 for -11 yards (26-R.Neal).
Q1 · 11:36SEA +7% win prob(11:36) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-D.Arnold to SEA 39 for 7 yards (22-T.Brown).
Q2 · 9:31SEA +6% win prob(9:31) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SEA-14-D.Metcalf, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q1 · 4:22SEA +5% win prob(4:22) 7-G.Smith up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Seahawks
Offensive plays	73	52
Total yards	310 (edge)	229
Yards per play	4.2	4.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.15	0.03 (edge)
Success rate	44%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	78%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	0.23 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12 (edge)	-0.20
Third downs	5/14 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Jaguars outgained Seahawks 310–229 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

32/54, 238 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-7.7 expected points added · -6.4% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

20/24, 195 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.3 expected points added · +26.0% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Alex CollinsRB

10 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Carlos HydeRB

9 att, 32 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Tyler LockettWR

12/13 for 142 yds, 0 TD

59% of team targets · 10.9 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Dan ArnoldTE

8/10 for 68 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 25	11	26	5:32	Punt
2	SEA	SEA 20	11	65	5:09	Touchdown
3	JAX	JAX 16	5	8	1:34	Punt
4	SEA	SEA 25	4	8	1:59	Punt
5	JAX	JAX 19	4	36	2:16	Interception
6	SEA	SEA 27	9	63	4:06	Touchdown
7	JAX	JAX 31	9	30	3:18	Turnover on downs
8	SEA	SEA 40	12	30	6:00	Turnover on downs
9	JAX	JAX 39	2	0	0:06	End of half
10	SEA	SEA 23	5	-9	1:41	Punt
11	JAX	SEA 45	4	7	1:28	Turnover on downs
12	SEA	SEA 38	9	62	3:42	Touchdown
13	JAX	JAX 8	5	8	1:12	Punt
14	SEA	JAX 45	4	4	2:16	Punt
15	JAX	JAX 12	11	45	5:33	Turnover on downs
16	SEA	SEA 48	4	12	1:53	Punt
17	JAX	JAX 9	9	29	4:02	Punt
18	SEA	SEA 31	4	-6	1:39	Punt
19	SEA	JAX 20	18	80	4:45	Touchdown
20	SEA	—	1	0	0:06	Defensive touchdown
21	JAX	JAX 9	8	41	1:43	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 80 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	32/54	238	1	1	1	-7.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Carlos Hyde	9	32	3.6	-2.3
James Robinson	4	22	5.5	-0.1
Trevor Lawrence	3	11	3.7	-1.3
Dare Ogunbowale	2	9	4.5	-0.4
Laviska Shenault Jr.	1	8	8.0	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dan Arnold	8	10	68	0	19%	3.7
Carlos Hyde	6	8	40	0	15%	-1.0
Jamal Agnew	6	12	38	1	23%	-1.0
Marvin Jones	5	8	35	0	15%	0.2
James Robinson	1	2	17	0	4%	0.6
Laviska Shenault Jr.	2	4	13	0	8%	-3.6
Tyron Johnson	1	2	10	0	4%	-0.2
Dare Ogunbowale	1	1	9	0	2%	0.6
Tavon Austin	1	3	5	0	6%	-3.8
Luke Farrell	1	2	3	0	4%	0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Rayshawn Jenkins	4	2	0.0	0
Damien Wilson	3	3	0.0	0
Malcom Brown	3	3	0.0	0
Myles Jack	3	3	0.0	0
Josh Hines-Allen	4	1	2.0	0
Rudy Ford	3	2	0.0	0
Tyson Campbell	3	1	0.0	1
Shaquill Griffin	1	2	0.0	0
Dawuane Smoot	2	1	1.0	0
Laviska Shenault Jr.	1	0	0.0	0

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Geno Smith	20/24	195	2	0	3	6.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alex Collins	10	44	4.4	0	-0.2
Travis Homer	4	9	2.3	0	-1.9
Geno Smith	2	8	4.0	1	2.4
Rashaad Penny	7	7	1.0	0	-4.0
DeeJay Dallas	1	6	6.0	0	0.2
Gerald Everett	1	-5	-5.0	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Lockett	12	13	142	0	59%	10.9
DK Metcalf	6	6	43	2	27%	3.3
Gerald Everett	1	2	7	0	9%	-0.5
Travis Homer	1	1	3	0	5%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Bobby Wagner	7	7	0.0	0	0
Jamal Adams	3	5	0.0	0	0
Ugochukwu Amadi	6	1	0.0	0	1
Jordyn Brooks	2	5	0.0	0	0
Sidney Jones	3	1	0.0	0	2
Ryan Neal	4	0	1.0	0	0
Quandre Diggs	2	1	0.0	1	2
Tre Brown	2	1	0.0	0	0
Benson Mayowa	1	2	0.0	0	0
Tanner Muse	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -4
Closing total: 44
JAX moneyline: +171
SEA moneyline: -192

Seahawks closed -4 and covered, winning by 24.

Total closed 44; the game landed 38 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lumen Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 54°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: JAX 14 days · SEA 6 days
Coaches: Urban Meyer vs Pete Carroll