2021 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 31, 2021 · NRG Stadium

Los Angeles RamsWinner

Houston Texans

LA -17 no coverO 47 ✓DomeRams closed -17, won by 16 — but didn't cover.

Los Angeles Rams 38–22. Biggest swing: Q2 8:14, LA +3% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 8:14LA — HOU HOU ball · 3rd & 10LA 95%

(8:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left intended for 89-D.Amendola INTERCEPTED by 50-E.Jones at HOU 31. 50-E.Jones pushed ob at HOU 12 for 19 yards (72-G.Christian).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 8:14LA +3% win prob(8:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left intended for 89-D.Amendola INTERCEPTED by 50-E.Jones at HOU 31. 50-E.Jones pushed ob at HOU 12 for 19 yards (72-G.Christian).
Q2 · 13:30LA +3% win prob(13:30) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to LA 35, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.
Q1 · 13:00LA +2% win prob(13:00) (Shotgun) 27-D.Henderson left tackle to HOU 45 for no gain (26-V.Hargreaves; 58-C.Kirksey).
Q1 · 15:00HOU +2% win prob(15:00) 27-D.Henderson right tackle to LA 40 for 15 yards (39-T.Mitchell).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Texans
Offensive plays	66	59
Total yards	467 (edge)	325
Yards per play	7.1 (edge)	5.5
Expected points added / play	0.22 (edge)	-0.12
Success rate	52% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	53%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.38 (edge)	-0.17
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	0.03
Third downs	4/11 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	5
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

29/38, 310 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-6.9 expected points added · +8.4% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

21/32, 305 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

16.2 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Darrell HendersonRB

14 att, 90 yds, 1 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Sony MichelRB

9 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

7/9 for 115 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Van JeffersonWR

3/6 for 88 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 5.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LA	LA 25	13	75	5:28	Touchdown
2	HOU	HOU 25	8	35	4:34	Punt
3	LA	LA 25	10	72	4:35	Turnover on downs
4	HOU	HOU 4	4	9	2:00	Punt
5	LA	LA 35	10	51	4:32	Turnover on downs
6	HOU	HOU 25	4	0	0:47	Interception
7	LA	HOU 12	5	9	1:55	Touchdown
8	HOU	HOU 25	6	18	2:20	Punt
9	LA	LA 21	8	79	3:19	Touchdown
10	HOU	HOU 38	5	30	0:30	Turnover on downs
11	HOU	HOU 25	5	-3	1:31	Punt
12	LA	LA 15	5	14	1:47	Punt
13	HOU	HOU 25	4	-9	2:16	Punt
14	LA	LA 21	4	79	1:31	Touchdown
15	HOU	HOU 25	5	-7	2:01	Punt
16	LA	LA 23	10	77	5:52	Touchdown
17	HOU	HOU 25	5	5	0:51	Punt
18	LA	LA 11	4	0	2:08	Punt
19	HOU	HOU 40	11	60	3:55	Touchdown
20	LA	LA 11	5	4	1:45	Punt
21	HOU	HOU 38	5	62	1:23	Touchdown
22	LA	50	8	52	2:25	Touchdown
23	LA	HOU 39	5	7	0:43	Punt
24	HOU	HOU 2	7	73	1:52	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 79 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	21/32	305	3	0	0	16.2
John Wolford	1/2	5	0	0	1	-2.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Darrell Henderson	14	90	6.4	1	2.6
Sony Michel	9	42	4.7	0	0.5
Robert Woods	3	22	7.3	1	1.8
Buddy Howell	5	11	2.2	0	-4.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	7	9	115	1	26%	7.8
Van Jefferson	3	6	88	0	18%	5.8
Robert Woods	3	9	35	1	26%	0.1
Ben Skowronek	3	3	30	0	9%	2.2
Tyler Higbee	3	3	25	0	9%	1.5
Sony Michel	2	2	14	0	6%	1.0
Darrell Henderson	1	2	3	1	6%	-3.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ernest Jones	7	2	0.5	1	1
Donte Deayon	5	1	0.0	0	1
Troy Reeder	2	4	0.0	0	0
Greg Gaines	0	4	0.5	0	0
Jordan Fuller	2	2	0.0	0	0
Aaron Donald	1	3	1.5	0	0
Juju Hughes	3	0	0.0	0	0
Leonard Floyd	1	2	2.0	0	0
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo	1	2	0.5	0	0
Taylor Rapp	1	1	0.0	0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Davis Mills	29/38	310	2	1	5	-6.9
Rex Burkhead	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rex Burkhead	4	21	5.3	1	2.1
Scottie Phillips	5	11	2.2	0	-1.2
Phillip Lindsay	3	8	2.7	0	-0.8
David Johnson	2	4	2.0	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	6	6	83	1	17%	6.7
Nico Collins	4	4	55	0	11%	4.1
Jordan Akins	5	5	53	0	14%	-0.2
Brevin Jordan	3	4	41	1	11%	2.0
Rex Burkhead	3	4	27	0	11%	1.4
Chris Conley	1	2	24	0	6%	-0.5
Chris Moore	2	2	16	0	6%	-0.2
Scottie Phillips	2	3	9	0	8%	-0.9
Danny Amendola	2	5	3	0	14%	-8.1
David Johnson	1	1	-1	0	3%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Justin Reid	4	5	0.0	0
Tavierre Thomas	2	5	0.0	1
Vernon Hargreaves	5	1	0.0	0
Zach Cunningham	1	3	0.0	0
Lonnie Johnson	3	1	0.0	0
Christian Kirksey	1	3	0.0	0
Jordan Jenkins	1	2	0.0	0
DeMarcus Walker	1	2	0.0	0
Kamu Grugier-Hill	2	1	0.0	0
Jonathan Greenard	3	0	1.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -17
Closing total: 47
LA moneyline: -1010
HOU moneyline: +724

Rams closed -17, won by 16 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 47; the game landed 60 — over by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: LA 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs David Culley