2021 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 28, 2021 · Gillette Stadium

Tennessee Titans

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -7.5 ✓O 43 ✓Patriots closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 23.

New England Patriots 36–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:48, NE +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:48TEN — NE TEN ball · 3rd & 3NE 92%

(:48) (Shotgun) 40-D.Hilliard up the middle for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:48NE +9% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 40-D.Hilliard up the middle for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 6:05TEN +9% win prob(6:05) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.
Q2 · 0:07TEN +8% win prob(:07) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Q1 · 13:29TEN +6% win prob(13:29) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 10 for -8 yards (9-M.Judon).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Patriots
Offensive plays	61	57
Total yards	356	395 (edge)
Yards per play	5.8	6.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.09	0.23 (edge)
Success rate	46% (edge)	46%
Dropback rate	43%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.31	0.38 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08 (edge)	0.00
Third downs	5/11 (edge)	4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	4	0 (edge)

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

23/32, 310 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

14.3 expected points added · +8.3% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

11/21, 93 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-9.4 expected points added · -13.2% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Dontrell HilliardRB

12 att, 131 yds, 1 TD

5.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

D'Onta ForemanRB

19 att, 109 yds, 0 TD

-2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Jakobi MeyersWR

5/8 for 98 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Kendrick BourneWR

5/6 for 61 yds, 2 TD

19% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 11	5	-1	2:37	Punt
2	NE	TEN 37	10	32	4:46	Touchdown
3	TEN	TEN 26	16	69	8:09	Touchdown
4	NE	NE 21	9	75	4:38	Turnover on downs
5	TEN	TEN 28	9	31	3:49	Turnover on downs
6	NE	NE 34	6	57	2:57	Turnover on downs
7	TEN	TEN 25	5	40	1:13	Fumble
8	NE	NE 32	6	27	0:53	Turnover on downs
9	TEN	TEN 25	5	75	0:21	Touchdown
10	NE	NE 27	6	38	0:35	Turnover on downs
11	TEN	TEN 43	1	0	0:02	End of half
12	NE	TEN 49	9	39	3:47	Turnover on downs
13	TEN	TEN 18	3	36	0:49	Fumble
14	NE	NE 37	6	4	2:33	Punt
15	TEN	TEN 11	4	5	1:07	Punt
16	NE	NE 44	5	56	1:43	Touchdown
17	TEN	TEN 25	15	68	8:02	Interception
18	NE	NE 20	10	46	5:50	Turnover on downs
19	TEN	TEN 25	5	0	0:43	Turnover on downs
20	NE	TEN 21	3	21	0:48	Touchdown
21	TEN	TEN 25	8	33	4:10	Fumble
22	NE	NE 42	1	0	0:28	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 75 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	11/21	93	1	1	2	-9.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dontrell Hilliard	12	131	10.9	1	5.8
D'Onta Foreman	19	109	5.7	0	-2.8
Ryan Tannehill	5	24	4.8	0	3.5
Khari Blasingame	3	6	2.0	0	-2.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	2	6	25	1	29%	-1.9
Cody Hollister	2	4	22	0	19%	-2.8
Dez Fitzpatrick	1	1	14	0	5%	1.0
MyCole Pruitt	1	2	10	0	10%	-0.5
Geoff Swaim	1	1	8	0	5%	0.5
Anthony Firkser	1	1	7	0	5%	-0.1
D'Onta Foreman	1	1	3	0	5%	-0.2
Dontrell Hilliard	1	2	2	0	10%	0.9
Chester Rogers	1	3	2	0	14%	-2.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kevin Byard	6	3	1.0	0
Jayon Brown	4	3	0.0	1
Amani Hooker	3	2	0.0	0
Jeffery Simmons	3	2	0.0	0
Monty Rice	1	4	0.0	0
Kristian Fulton	3	1	0.0	1
Janoris Jenkins	2	2	0.0	0
Dylan Cole	1	3	0.0	1
Derick Roberson	2	1	0.5	0
Geoff Swaim	1	1	0.0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	23/32	310	2	0	2	14.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	9	46	5.1	0	-0.7
Damien Harris	11	40	3.6	1	-0.3
Mac Jones	2	11	5.5	0	-1.1
Jonnu Smith	1	9	9.0	0	1.0
Brian Hoyer	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jakobi Meyers	5	8	98	0	25%	4.7
Kendrick Bourne	5	6	61	2	19%	8.5
Brandon Bolden	4	4	54	0	13%	3.5
Jonnu Smith	3	4	49	0	13%	3.0
Nelson Agholor	3	3	20	0	9%	-0.6
Hunter Henry	2	5	16	0	16%	-1.2
Damien Harris	1	1	12	0	3%	0.8
Rhamondre Stevenson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Ja'Whaun Bentley	2	6	1.0	0
Kyle Dugger	5	3	0.0	0
Adrian Phillips	1	5	0.0	0
Matt Judon	3	2	1.0	0
Davon Godchaux	4	1	0.0	0
Devin McCourty	2	2	0.0	1
Lawrence Guy	3	1	0.0	0
Dont'a Hightower	3	1	0.0	1
Kyle Van Noy	0	4	0.0	3
Calvin Munson	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -7.5
Closing total: 43
TEN moneyline: +262
NE moneyline: -305

Patriots closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 23.

Total closed 43; the game landed 49 — over by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 33°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: TEN 7 days · NE 10 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Bill Belichick