For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 29.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 52 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Buccaneers165 of 175 plays carry both curves
(:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 15-C.Grayson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −48.9 for JetsExpected points −4.82 for JetsThe model had Jets 14 points higher than the market did.play 170
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:21NYJ +49% win prob(:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 15-C.Grayson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:59NYJ +17% win prob(:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 18-T.Johnson to NYJ 43 for 27 yards (57-C.Mosley).
1st · 14:24NYJ +15% win prob(14:24) 69-C.McDermott reported in as eligible. 32-Mi.Carter right tackle to TB 12 for 55 yards (31-A.Winfield).
3rd · 0:33NYJ +13% win prob(:33) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 84-C.Brate for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:17TB +12% win prob(2:17) 69-C.McDermott reported in as eligible. 2-Z.Wilson up the middle to TB 7 for no gain (9-J.Tryon, 31-A.Winfield).
4th · 12:11TB +11% win prob(12:11) 19-S.Hofrichter punts 30 yards to NYJ 9, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.
3rd · 14:27
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cyril Grayson's 33-yard touchdown catch with 0:21 left in the 4th put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
3rd0:33Cameron Brate·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+717–24
4th7:39Ryan Succop·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap Z.Triner+320–24
4th0:21Cyril Grayson·33-yd TD catch33-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady · two-point goodLead never changed again+828–24
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryJets
Buccaneers6–1Jets
469Total yards374
6.5Yards per play6.2
51%Success rate43%
60%Third-down rate55%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
10Explosive plays9
26First downs23
1Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Buccaneers ahead 6–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jets, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.25Buccaneers: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.13Jets: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.44Buccaneers: +0.44 expected points added per play
+0.24Jets: +0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Buccaneers: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.01Jets: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 72 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Jets’s 60 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 5, Jets 4.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 28 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Jets8.0%
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -0.7 pts, 8.8 points below their season mean of 8.1 pts and 1.1 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
78Tristan WirfsT · Every snap100%74 snaps
76Donovan SmithT · Every snap100%74 snaps
74Ali MarpetG · Every snap100%74 snaps
65Alex CappaG · Every snap100%74 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Every snap100%74 snaps
66Ryan JensenC · Every snap100%74 snaps
87Rob GronkowskiTE · Full-time95%70 snaps
13Mike EvansWR · Heavy rotation76%56 snaps
18Tyler JohnsonWR · Heavy rotation66%49 snaps
15Cyril GraysonWR · Heavy rotation64%47 snaps
6Le'Veon BellRB · Rotational35%26 snaps
81Antonio BrownWR · Rotational35%26 snaps
21Ke'Shawn VaughnRB · Rotational32%24 snaps
84Cameron BrateTE · Rotational28%21 snaps
27Ronald JonesRB · Rotational27%20 snaps
80O.J. HowardTE · Situational19%14 snaps
16Breshad PerrimanWR · Situational15%11 snaps
72Josh WellsT · Situational8%6 snaps
Inactive · 7
Richard ShermanCBDee DelaneyCBJason Pierre-PaulDEElijah PonderOLBShaquil BarrettOLBKyle TraskQBJustin WatsonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Nick LeverettGBlaine GabbertQB
New York Jets
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
75Alijah Vera-TuckerG · Every snap100%61 snaps
78Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%61 snaps
67Dan FeeneyG · Every snap100%61 snaps
72Laurent Duvernay-TardifG · Every snap100%61 snaps
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass+54% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 15-C.Grayson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:21 · Buccaneers · 1st & 10 at NYJ 33 · gained 33 · +4.82 EP · +53.9% win probability
163 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 93 yards from the TB 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
46%
Yards
843
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.2772%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.1469%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.2269%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.3240%
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR6+0.0933%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Jets2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Jets2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Buccaneers0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Buccaneers0Jets6
Buccaneers0Jets7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Buccaneers 1
Buccaneers6Jets7
Buccaneers7Jets7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Jets 4
The period ended13 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Buccaneers 27
2nd quarter50 plays
Buccaneers7Jets13
Buccaneers7Jets14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Buccaneers 9
Buccaneers10Jets14
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Jets 20
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 17 to the Buccaneers 48
Punt11 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Jets 47
The period ended8 plays, from the Jets 17 to the Buccaneers 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Jets 46
Buccaneers10Jets17
Field goal3 plays, from the Jets 48 to the Buccaneers 33
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 42
Buccaneers10Jets23
Buccaneers10Jets24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Buccaneers 1
Buccaneers16Jets24
Buccaneers17Jets24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Jets 4
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter50 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Jets 39
Punt4 plays
Buccaneers20Jets24
Field goal8 plays, from the Jets 47 to the Jets 9
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Buccaneers 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Buccaneers26Jets24
Buccaneers28Jets24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 7 to the Jets 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxTwo defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -14.5
Closing total
48
Buccaneers moneyline
-868
Jets moneyline
+623
Buccaneers closed -14.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 48; the game landed 52 — over by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 55°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the west; overcast.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Buccaneers 7 days · Jets 7 days
Coaches
Bruce Arians vs Robert Saleh
TB +11% win prob
(14:27) 27-R.Jones right tackle to TB 28 for -2 yards (33-E.Riley).
1st · 12:09TB +10% win prob(12:09) 69-C.McDermott reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 32-Mi.Carter. 10-B.Berrios right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Run reverse handoff from direct snap
