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2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · MetLife Stadium
28
24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28–24. Biggest swing: Q4 0:21, NYJ +49% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 15-C.Grayson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Buccaneers | Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 72 | 60 |
| Total yards | 469 (edge) | 374 |
| Yards per play | 6.5 (edge) | 6.2 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.25 (edge) | 0.13 |
| Success rate | 51% (edge) | 43% |
| Dropback rate | 69% | 57% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.44 (edge) | 0.24 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.19 | -0.01 (edge) |
| Third downs | 9/15 (edge) | 6/11 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 10 (edge) | 9 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 26 (edge) | 23 |
| Sacks taken | 1 | 1 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.13.
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
34/50, 410 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
22.0 expected points added · +10.0% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
19/33, 234 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
8.4 expected points added · -4.6% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | NYJ 28 | 8 | 67 | 2:56 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | TB | TB 25 | 15 | 65 | 6:21 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | NYJ | NYJ 26 | 15 | 78 | 7:00 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | TB | TB 25 | 8 | 54 | 2:53 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | NYJ | NYJ 17 | 7 | 35 | 2:06 | Punt | |
| 6 | TB | TB 10 | 9 | 43 | 6:20 | Punt | |
| 7 | NYJ | NYJ 17 | 7 | 41 | 1:30 | Punt | |
| 8 | TB | TB 10 | 5 | 44 | 0:38 | Interception | |
| 9 | NYJ | NYJ 48 | 3 | 19 | 0:15 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | TB | — | 1 | 0 | 0:01 | End of half | |
| 11 | TB | TB 25 | 8 | 17 | 2:52 | Punt | |
| 12 | NYJ | NYJ 34 | 10 | 66 | 5:12 | Touchdown | |
| 13 | TB | TB 25 | 15 | 89 | 6:27 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | NYJ | NYJ 30 | 5 | -10 | 1:29 | Punt | |
| 15 | TB | TB 37 | 6 | 24 | 1:55 | Punt | |
| 16 | NYJ | NYJ 9 | 4 | 0 | 0:50 | Punt | |
| 17 | TB | NYJ 47 | 8 | 38 | 3:39 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 12 | 68 | 5:24 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | TB | TB 7 | 10 | 95 | 1:57 | Touchdown | |
| 20 | NYJ | NYJ 30 | 3 | 10 | 0:15 | Fumble |
0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 95 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 34/50 | 410 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 22.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 | -2.1 |
| Ronald Jones | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 7 | 10 | 115 | 0 | 20% | 3.5 |
| Cyril Grayson | 6 | 8 | 81 | 1 | 16% | 8.0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 | 12% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Winfield | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin Minter | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pierre Desir |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 19/33 | 234 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 3 | 54 | 18.0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -14.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 48; the game landed 52 — over by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
| 1.4 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 7 | 47 | 1 | 14% | 3.4 |
| Breshad Perriman | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 6% | 2.7 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 6% | 3.5 |
| Antonio Brown | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 10% | -0.8 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 6% | -0.1 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 6% | 2.7 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2% | -0.6 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ndamukong Suh | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nelson | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Devin White | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ross Cockrell | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2.6 |
| Austin Walter | 14 | 49 | 3.5 | 0 | -2.3 |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 1 | 1.1 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 1 | 1.7 |
| Zach Wilson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -3.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Berrios | 8 | 12 | 65 | 1 | 40% | 4.6 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 | 13% | 1.8 |
| Kenny Yeboah | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 | 7% | 3.2 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 17% | 0.6 |
| Daniel Brown | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 7% | 1.3 |
| Jeff Smith | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 13% | 0.9 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | 0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Mosley | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Hall | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Quincy Williams | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Riley | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandin Echols | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Folorunso Fatukasi | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Ward | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronald Blair | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Shepherd | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
