2021 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 2, 2022 · MetLife Stadium

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

New York Jets

TB -14.5 no coverO 48 ✓Buccaneers closed -14.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28–24. Biggest swing: Q4 0:21, NYJ +49% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:21TB — NYJ TB ball · 1st & 10NYJ 60%

(:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 15-C.Grayson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:21NYJ +49% win prob(:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 15-C.Grayson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:59NYJ +17% win prob(:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 18-T.Johnson to NYJ 43 for 27 yards (57-C.Mosley).
Q1 · 14:24NYJ +15% win prob(14:24) 69-C.McDermott reported in as eligible. 32-Mi.Carter right tackle to TB 12 for 55 yards (31-A.Winfield).
Q3 · 0:33NYJ +13% win prob(:33) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 84-C.Brate for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Jets
Offensive plays	72	60
Total yards	469 (edge)	374
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	6.2
Expected points added / play	0.25 (edge)	0.13
Success rate	51% (edge)	43%
Dropback rate	69%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.44 (edge)	0.24
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.19	-0.01 (edge)
Third downs	9/15 (edge)	6/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	9
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	23
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	1	1

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

34/50, 410 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

22.0 expected points added · +10.0% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Zach WilsonQB

19/33, 234 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.4 expected points added · -4.6% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Austin WalterRB

14 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Ty JohnsonRB

5 att, 35 yds, 1 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Rob GronkowskiTE

7/10 for 115 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Cyril GraysonWR

6/8 for 81 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 28	8	67	2:56	Touchdown
2	TB	TB 25	15	65	6:21	Touchdown
3	NYJ	NYJ 26	15	78	7:00	Touchdown
4	TB	TB 25	8	54	2:53	Turnover on downs
5	NYJ	NYJ 17	7	35	2:06	Punt
6	TB	TB 10	9	43	6:20	Punt
7	NYJ	NYJ 17	7	41	1:30	Punt
8	TB	TB 10	5	44	0:38	Interception
9	NYJ	NYJ 48	3	19	0:15	Turnover on downs
10	TB	—	1	0	0:01	End of half
11	TB	TB 25	8	17	2:52	Punt
12	NYJ	NYJ 34	10	66	5:12	Touchdown
13	TB	TB 25	15	89	6:27	Touchdown
14	NYJ	NYJ 30	5	-10	1:29	Punt
15	TB	TB 37	6	24	1:55	Punt
16	NYJ	NYJ 9	4	0	0:50	Punt
17	TB	NYJ 47	8	38	3:39	Turnover on downs
18	NYJ	NYJ 25	12	68	5:24	Turnover on downs
19	TB	TB 7	10	95	1:57	Touchdown
20	NYJ	NYJ 30	3	10	0:15	Fumble

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 95 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	34/50	410	3	1	1	22.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	8	31	3.9	-2.1
Ronald Jones	10	26	2.6	-1.8
Le'Veon Bell	3	5	1.7	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rob Gronkowski	7	10	115	0	20%	3.5
Cyril Grayson	6	8	81	1	16%	8.0
Tyler Johnson	4	6	50	0	12%	1.4
Mike Evans	4	7	47	1	14%	3.4
Breshad Perriman	2	3	41	0	6%	2.7
Le'Veon Bell	3	3	30	0	6%	3.5
Antonio Brown	3	5	26	0	10%	-0.8
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	2	3	14	0	6%	-0.1
Cameron Brate	2	3	5	1	6%	2.7
Ronald Jones	1	1	1	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Antoine Winfield	7	1	0.0	0
Carlton Davis	5	1	0.0	1
Kevin Minter	3	2	0.0	0
Pierre Desir	5	0	0.0	0
Jordan Whitehead	4	0	0.0	0
Ndamukong Suh	2	1	0.0	0
Anthony Nelson	3	0	1.0	1
Devin White	2	1	0.0	0
Ross Cockrell	2	0	0.0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	2	0	0.0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Zach Wilson	19/33	234	1	0	1	8.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Michael Carter	3	54	18.0	0	2.6
Austin Walter	14	49	3.5	0	-2.3
Ty Johnson	5	35	7.0	1	1.1
Braxton Berrios	2	12	6.0	1	1.7
Zach Wilson	2	0	0.0	0	-3.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Braxton Berrios	8	12	65	1	40%	4.6
Ty Johnson	3	4	47	0	13%	1.8
Kenny Yeboah	2	2	36	0	7%	3.2
Keelan Cole	2	5	35	0	17%	0.6
Daniel Brown	2	2	29	0	7%	1.3
Jeff Smith	1	4	13	0	13%	0.9
Michael Carter	1	1	9	0	3%	0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
C.J. Mosley	6	6	0.0	0	0
Bryce Hall	6	2	0.0	0	2
Quincy Williams	1	5	0.0	0	0
Elijah Riley	3	3	0.0	0	0
Michael Carter	4	2	1.0	0	0
Brandin Echols	4	0	0.0	1	1
Folorunso Fatukasi	3	0	0.0	0	0
Tim Ward	1	2	0.0	0	0
Ronald Blair	2	1	0.0	0	0
Nathan Shepherd	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -14.5
Closing total: 48
TB moneyline: -868
NYJ moneyline: +623

Buccaneers closed -14.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 48; the game landed 52 — over by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 57°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: TB 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches: Bruce Arians vs Robert Saleh