2021 Divisional Round · Sat, Jan 22, 2022 · Nissan Stadium

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

Tennessee Titans

TEN -4 upsetU 48.5 ✓Titans closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cincinnati Bengals 19–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, TEN +30% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:04CIN — TEN CIN ball · 3rd & 10CIN 70%

(:04) 2-E.McPherson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:04TEN +30% win prob(:04) 2-E.McPherson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
Q4 · 0:28CIN +28% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine INTERCEPTED by 55-L.Wilson (20-E.Apple) at CIN 47. 55-L.Wilson to CIN 47 for no gain (86-A.Firkser).
Q3 · 1:28CIN +23% win prob(1:28) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 34-S.Perine INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker at CIN 42. 37-A.Hooker to CIN 27 for 15 yards (34-S.Perine). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 · 7:21CIN +18% win prob(7:21) 22-D.Henry up the middle to CIN 37 for -2 yards (55-L.Wilson, 51-M.Bailey).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Titans
Offensive plays	63	53
Total yards	345	353 (edge)
Yards per play	5.5	6.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.08 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	40%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	73%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08 (edge)	-0.22
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08 (edge)	-0.10
Third downs	7/15 (edge)	1/8
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	17	17
Sacks taken	9	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Titans outgained Bengals 353–345 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

28/37, 348 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-5.0 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

15/24, 220 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-4.5 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

20 att, 62 yds, 1 TD

-4.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

14 att, 54 yds, 1 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

A.J. BrownWR

5/9 for 142 yds, 1 TD

38% of team targets · 7.7 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

5/6 for 109 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 25	2	0	0:07	Interception
2	CIN	TEN 42	6	27	2:50	Turnover on downs
3	TEN	TEN 25	5	-6	2:03	Punt
4	CIN	CIN 31	4	-4	1:31	Punt
5	TEN	TEN 40	7	21	2:37	Punt
6	CIN	CIN 12	6	61	3:41	Turnover on downs
7	TEN	TEN 25	7	22	2:19	Punt
8	CIN	CIN 12	7	28	3:35	Punt
9	TEN	TEN 16	10	84	5:10	Touchdown
10	CIN	CIN 25	12	44	4:32	Turnover on downs
11	TEN	TEN 26	5	8	0:33	Punt
12	CIN	CIN 18	7	58	1:02	End of half
13	CIN	CIN 35	11	65	5:26	Touchdown
14	TEN	TEN 25	6	66	2:53	Interception
15	CIN	CIN 24	4	5	1:41	Punt
16	TEN	TEN 28	7	56	3:24	Turnover on downs
17	CIN	CIN 40	2	0	0:17	Interception
18	TEN	CIN 27	3	32	1:04	Touchdown
19	CIN	CIN 20	8	32	3:57	Punt
20	TEN	TEN 17	7	46	4:02	Turnover on downs
21	CIN	CIN 37	7	10	4:33	Punt
22	TEN	TEN 16	5	24	2:23	Interception
23	CIN	CIN 47	4	19	0:20	Turnover on downs

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 84 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	28/37	348	0	1	9	-5.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	14	54	3.9	1	-0.7
Joe Burrow	2	5	2.5	0	1.0
Chris Evans	1	4	4.0	0	-0.3
Ja'Marr Chase	1	2	2.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	5	6	109	17%	6.4
Tee Higgins	7	9	96	26%	6.1
C.J. Uzomah	7	8	71	23%	1.8
Joe Mixon	6	7	51	20%	1.9
Tyler Boyd	2	3	17	9%	0.0
Samaje Perine	1	2	4	6%	-6.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Logan Wilson	5	2	0.0	1	1
D.J. Reader	4	1	0.0	0	0
Vonn Bell	4	1	1.0	0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	3	2	0.0	0	0
Markus Bailey	2	2	0.0	0	0
Jessie Bates	3	0	0.0	1	1
B.J. Hill	3	0	0.0	0	0
Sam Hubbard	2	1	0.0	0	0
Tre Flowers	2	0	0.0	0	1
Germaine Pratt	2	0	0.0	0	0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	15/24	220	1	3	1	-4.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Onta Foreman	4	66	16.5	0	3.1
Derrick Henry	20	62	3.1	1	-4.5
Ryan Tannehill	3	12	4.0	0	-2.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Brown	5	9	142	1	38%	7.7
Julio Jones	6	7	62	0	29%	-0.4
Dontrell Hilliard	3	3	13	0	13%	-0.2
Chester Rogers	1	2	3	0	8%	-6.5
Anthony Firkser	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.3
Khari Blasingame	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.0
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Amani Hooker	5	3	0.0	1	2
Zach Cunningham	4	2	0.0	0	0
Harold Landry	3	3	1.5	0	0
David Long Jr.	4	2	1.0	0	0
Jeffery Simmons	5	1	3.0	0	0
Kristian Fulton	4	2	0.0	0	0
Dane Cruikshank	3	1	0.0	0	0
Denico Autry	1	2	1.5	0	1
Janoris Jenkins	1	1	0.0	0	1
Kyle Peko	0	2	0.5	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -4
Closing total: 48.5
CIN moneyline: +170
TEN moneyline: -191

Titans closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 35 — under by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 35°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: CIN 7 days · TEN 13 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Mike Vrabel