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2022 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 9, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium

Atlanta Falcons

15

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

21

TB -10.5 no coverU 46 ✓

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21–15. Biggest swing: Q1 13:39, TB +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TB ↑ATL ↓
Q1 · 13:39ATL 0 — TB 0TB ball · 4th & 8TB 72%

(13:39) 5-J.Camarda punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 13:39TB +8% win prob(13:39) 5-J.Camarda punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.
  2. Q1 · 10:51TB +6% win prob(10:51) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to TB 23, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.
  3. Q1 · 12:18TB +6% win prob(12:18) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short left to 86-A.Firkser to ATL 32 for 11 yards (23-S.Murphy-Bunting).
  4. Q1 · 4:57ATL +4% win prob(4:57) 7-L.Fournette left guard to ATL 15 for no gain (92-A.Ogundeji, 32-J.Hawkins).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 9:34TB Touchdown

    (9:34) (No Huddle) 7-L.Fournette right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 0 — TB 7
  2. Q2 · 1:21TB Field goal

    (1:21) 3-R.Succop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: ATL 0 — TB 10
  3. Q2 · 0:03TB Field goal

    (:03) 3-R.Succop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: ATL 0 — TB 13
  4. Q3 · 6:12TB Touchdown

    (6:12) 74-F.Johnson reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass short right to 7-L.Fournette for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: ATL 0 — TB 21
  5. Q4 · 13:44ATL Touchdown

    (13:44) (Shotgun) 35-A.Williams right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 7 — TB 21
  6. Q4 · 4:43ATL Touchdown

    (4:43) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB-32-M.Edwards was injured during the play. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: ATL 15 — TB 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricFalconsBuccaneers
Offensive plays6273
Total yards263425 (edge)
Yards per play4.25.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.080.15 (edge)
Success rate42%53% (edge)
Dropback rate56%73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.010.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.18 (edge)-0.17
Third downs6/149/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)56 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1825 (edge)
Sacks taken50 (edge)
Turnovers00

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs 0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

35/52, 351 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

14.0 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Marcus MariotaQB

14/25, 147 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-1.4 expected points added · -6.4% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Marcus MariotaQB

7 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

5.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

14 att, 56 yds, 1 TD

-4.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

10/11 for 83 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

4/8 for 81 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TBTB 197161:32Punt
2ATLATL 20702:45Punt
3TBTB 2311625:51Turnover on downs
4ATLATL 159465:00Punt
5TBTB 1214985:21Touchdown +7
6ATLATL 2510243:48Punt
7TBTB 1313894:25Field goal +3
8ATLATL 327190:58Missed field goal
9TBTB 424320:20Field goal +3
10ATLATL 189284:32Punt
11TBTB 2612764:19Touchdown +8
12ATLATL 206232:44Punt
13TBTB 13461:42Punt
14ATLTB 437383:04Touchdown +7
15TBTB 25560:42Punt
16ATLATL 316182:32Punt
17TBTB 25430:36Punt
18ATLATL 3013675:11Touchdown +8
19TBTB 2512374:38End of game

6 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 98 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Marcus Mariota14/25147105-1.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Marcus Mariota7618.705.5
Tyler Allgeier13453.500.4
Caleb Huntley8344.30-0.8
Avery Williams3113.711.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Olamide Zaccheaus2439117%3.9
Drake London4735029%0.7
KhaDarel Hodge3533021%2.8
Anthony Firkser111104%2.3
Avery Williams221008%-0.3
Bryan Edwards111004%-0.5
Parker Hesse11904%0.8
Feleipe Franks02008%-1.1
Damiere Byrd01004%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jaylinn Hawkins830.000
Mykal Walker450.000
Richie Grant610.000
Dee Alford430.002
Troy Andersen410.000
Rashaan Evans310.000
Grady Jarrett310.000
Dean Marlowe210.000
Lorenzo Carter210.000
A.J. Terrell110.000

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tom Brady35/5235110014.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Leonard Fournette14564.01-4.4
Rachaad White5142.801.8
Chris Godwin122.00-0.6
Tom Brady3-3-1.00-3.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Leonard Fournette101183122%4.6
Mike Evans4881016%5.0
Chris Godwin6661012%5.6
Cade Otton6743014%1.9
Scott Miller4735014%-0.2
Rachaad White342808%1.2
Russell Gage2620012%-1.1
Kyle Rudolph01002%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Antoine Winfield511.001
Deadrin Senat321.000
Carlton Davis400.001
Lavonte David130.000
William Gholston130.000
Shaquil Barrett220.000
Keanu Neal300.000
Carl Nassib120.000
Jamel Dean300.000
Devin White120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
TB -10.5
Closing total
46
ATL moneyline
+355
TB moneyline
-430

Buccaneers closed -10.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 46; the game landed 36 — under by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
ATL 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches
Arthur Smith vs Todd Bowles

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.