2022 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 16, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Buffalo BillsWinner
24
Kansas City Chiefs
20
Buffalo Bills 24–20. Biggest swing: Q2 11:44, KC +19% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(11:44) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-J.Smith-Schuster for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q2 · 11:44KC +19% win prob(11:44) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-J.Smith-Schuster for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q4 · 0:56BUF +19% win prob(:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 24-S.Moore INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Johnson at KC 32. 7-T.Johnson to KC 30 for 2 yards (9-J.Smith-Schuster). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- Q2 · 0:22KC +19% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 13-G.Davis for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q4 · 1:09KC +17% win prob(1:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q2 · 13:36BUF Field goal
(13:36) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 3 — KC 0 - Q2 · 11:44KC Touchdown
(11:44) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-J.Smith-Schuster for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 3 — KC 7 - Q2 · 0:22BUF Touchdown
(:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 13-G.Davis for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 10 — KC 7 - Q2 · 0:01KC Field goal
(:01) 7-H.Butker 62 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: BUF 10 — KC 10 - Q3 · 7:08BUF Touchdown
(7:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 17 — KC 10 - Q3 · 2:50KC Touchdown
(2:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 17-M.Hardman for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-E.Oliver]. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 17 — KC 17 - Q4 · 9:53KC Field goal
(9:53) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: BUF 17 — KC 20 - Q4 · 1:09BUF Touchdown
(1:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 24 — KC 20
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Bills | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 70 | 61 |
| Total yards | 451 (edge) | 387 |
| Yards per play | 6.4 (edge) | 6.3 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.12 (edge) | 0.05 |
| Success rate | 49% (edge) | 38% |
| Dropback rate | 63% | 77% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.27 (edge) | 0.14 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.14 (edge) | -0.27 |
| Third downs | 4/10 (edge) | 4/11 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 | 8 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 25 (edge) | 20 |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 3 |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 2 |
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · KC
25/40, 338 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
4.4 expected points added · +1.8% completion over expected
Passing · BUF
27/40, 329 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
11.2 expected points added · +5.2% completion over expected
Receiving · KC
5/5 for 113 yds, 1 TD
14% of team targets · 9.9 expected points added
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | BUF 25 | 10 | 62 | 5:13 | Fumble | |
| 2 | KC | KC 11 | 14 | 80 | 6:31 | Interception | |
| 3 | BUF | BUF 20 | 11 | 69 | 4:44 | Field goal +3 | |
| 4 | KC | KC 21 | 8 | 79 | 2:01 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 5 | BUF | BUF 25 | 12 | 49 | 4:58 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | KC | KC 3 | 4 | 9 | 2:06 | Punt | |
| 7 | BUF | BUF 31 | 4 | 3 | 1:04 | Punt | |
| 8 | KC | KC 27 | 9 | 20 | 1:54 | Punt | |
| 9 | BUF | BUF 4 | 8 | 98 | 1:13 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 10 | KC | KC 28 | 4 | 28 | 0:16 | Field goal +3 | |
| 11 | KC | KC 16 | 12 | 51 | 4:45 | Missed field goal | |
| 12 | BUF | BUF 41 | 7 | 59 | 3:13 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 13 | KC | KC 17 | 9 | 83 | 4:18 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 14 | BUF | BUF 25 | 8 | 29 | 3:32 | Turnover on downs | |
| 15 | KC | KC 46 | 8 | 38 | 4:23 | Field goal +3 | |
| 16 | BUF | BUF 24 | 6 | 0 | 2:13 | Punt | |
| 17 | KC | KC 23 | 4 | -1 | 2:05 | Punt | |
| 18 | BUF | BUF 24 | 13 | 76 | 4:27 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 19 | KC | KC 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:13 | Interception | |
| 20 | BUF | KC 30 | 3 | 6 | 0:51 | End of game |
8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 98 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Buffalo Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 27/40 | 329 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11.2 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 17 | 85 | 5.0 | 0 | -1.7 |
| Josh Allen | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 | -4.5 |
| James Cook | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | 0.1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 10 | 13 | 148 | 1 | 34% | 6.7 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 6 | 74 | 1 | 16% | 6.4 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 3 | 37 | 1 | 8% | 4.8 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 13% | -1.5 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 8% | 0.3 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 5% | 0.2 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 13% | -3.8 |
| Tommy Sweeney | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | 0.8 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tremaine Edmunds | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damar Hamlin | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kaiir Elam | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Terrel Bernard | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Von Miller | 4 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Lewis | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Jackson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
Kansas City Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 25/40 | 338 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4.4 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 | -1.7 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 | 2.3 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | -2.2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 5 | 5 | 113 | 1 | 14% | 9.9 |
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 10 | 108 | 0 | 29% | 8.6 |
| Mecole Hardman | 3 | 4 | 42 | 1 | 11% | 4.5 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 9% | -1.4 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 9% | -1.8 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 9% | -0.7 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | -0.7 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9% | -5.7 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| Michael Burton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.4 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bolton | 9 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Williams | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Harris | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Reid | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Juan Thornhill | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Jones | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derrick Nnadi | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Karlaftis | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- BUF -2.5
- Closing total
- 54
- BUF moneyline
- -146
- KC moneyline
- +132
Bills closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 54; the game landed 44 — under by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- —
- Referee
- Brad Allen
- Rest
- BUF 7 days · KC 6 days
- Coaches
- Sean McDermott vs Andy Reid