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2022 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 13, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
BrownsCleveland17
BY 22final margin
DolphinsMiami39
Cleveland Browns 17 at Miami Dolphins 39. Final.
Dolphins -3 ✓O 49 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 10
Miami Dolphins 39, Browns 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 14:52, 1st and 10, on Donovan Peoples-Jones — 9.7 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:52 · 1st and 10
Donovan Peoples-Jones
Browns
(14:52) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones to MIA 15 for 38 yards (28-K.Kohou) [92-Z.Sieler].
Dolphins closed -3 and covered, winning by 22.
Miami Dolphins 39–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:52, Browns +9.7% win probability on one snap.
9.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Donovan Peoples-JonesBrownsQ1 3:11(3:11) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones to MIA 45 for 22 yards (45-D.Riley; 32-V.McKinley).
8.0pts
Nick ChubbDolphinsQ1 0:20(:20) 24-N.Chubb right tackle to MIA 31 for 3 yards (92-Z.Sieler). FUMBLES (92-Z.Sieler), touched at MIA 31, RECOVERED by MIA-25-X.Howard at MIA 29.
8.1pts
What separated them
Every snap
Dolphins won this one — +0.40 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.09 expected points per snap.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.26 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.22 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Dolphins won this one — 61% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Browns at 5 chunk plays.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Browns163 of 170 plays carry both curves
(14:52) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones to MIA 15 for 38 yards (28-K.Kohou) [92-Z.Sieler].
Swing −9.7 for DolphinsExpected points −2.63 for DolphinsThe model had Browns 2 points higher than the market did.play 3
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:52MIA +10% win prob(14:52) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones to MIA 15 for 38 yards (28-K.Kohou) [92-Z.Sieler].
1st · 0:20CLE +8% win prob(:20) 24-N.Chubb right tackle to MIA 31 for 3 yards (92-Z.Sieler). FUMBLES (92-Z.Sieler), touched at MIA 31, RECOVERED by MIA-25-X.Howard at MIA 29.
1st · 3:11MIA +8% win prob(3:11) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones to MIA 45 for 22 yards (45-D.Riley; 32-V.McKinley).
2nd · 1:36CLE +7% win prob(1:36) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at CLE 20 for -11 yards (sack split by 94-C.Wilkins and 6-M.Ingram).
2nd · 14:56MIA +7% win prob(14:56) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 17-J.Waddle to CLE 36 for 29 yards (22-G.Delpit).
2nd · 0:37MIA +6% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 14-T.Sherfield for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jason Sanders's 39-yard field goal with 11:09 left in the 2nd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
4th8:19Jason Sanders·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap B.Ferguson+317–33
4th7:13Jeffery Wilson·20-yd TD run20-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+617–39
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryDolphins
Browns0–9Dolphins
298Total yards491
4.9Yards per play7.7
46%Success rate61%
42%Third-down rate60%
1Red-zone touchdowns4
5Explosive plays10
17First downs28
3Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Dolphins ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Browns: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.40Dolphins: +0.40 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.03Browns: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.52Dolphins: +0.52 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.22Browns: −0.22 expected points added per play
+0.26Dolphins: +0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 61 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 64 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Dolphins 7.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.40 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CLE's sack or hit rate, 2.9%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 0.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 6.1% in week 3.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
high through week 10Against their seasonTendencies
MIA's sack or hit rate, 26.2%, is past their previous high of 17.6% in week 6 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 9.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
high through week 10Against their seasonOver Expected
CLE's pass rate over expected, +2.0 pts, is past their previous high of −2.7 pts in week 6 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
MIA's blitz rate sent turned over: 56.8% in week 9 against 23.8% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 25 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.4 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.24× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Dolphins26.2%
leaned — got home · +12.6 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.77× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteMIA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.2%, 12.6 points above their season mean of 13.6% and 1.8 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
55Ethan PocicC · Every snap100%67 snaps
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%67 snaps
7Jacoby BrissettQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Every snap100%67 snaps
71Jedrick WillsT · Full-time91%61 snaps
11Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Full-time88%59 snaps
2Amari CooperWR · Full-time87%58 snaps
88Harrison BryantTE · Heavy rotation76%51 snaps
72Hjalte FroholdtG · Heavy rotation67%45 snaps
18David BellWR · Heavy rotation52%35 snaps
24Nick ChubbRB · Rotational48%32 snaps
84Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational42%28 snaps
27Kareem HuntRB · Rotational36%24 snaps
66James HudsonT · Situational22%15 snaps
12Mike WoodsWR · Situational19%13 snaps
30D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Situational18%12 snaps
10Anthony SchwartzWR · Situational18%12 snaps
70Drew ForbesG · Situational18%12 snaps
77Wyatt TellerG · Situational16%11 snaps
86Miller ForristallTE · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Thomas GrahamCBPerrion WinfreyDTMichael DunnGJeremiah Owusu-KoramoahOLBKellen MondQBDemetric FeltonRBDavid NjokuTE
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Chubb right−12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:20) 24-N.Chubb right tackle to MIA 31 for 3 yards (92-Z.Sieler). FUMBLES (92-Z.Sieler), touched at MIA 31, RECOVERED by MIA-25-X.Howard at MIA 29.
Q1 0:20 · Browns · 2nd & 10 at MIA 34 · gained 3 · -4.59 EP · −12.2% win probability
161 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, manual charting on 142. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 84 yards from the MIA 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
49%
Yards
788
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.0167%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR31+0.3339%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.3570%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.0157%
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR6+0.7650%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Browns6Dolphins0
Browns7Dolphins0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Browns 47 to the Dolphins 1
Browns7Dolphins6
Browns7Dolphins7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Dolphins 16 to the Browns 13
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost14 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Dolphins 34
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Browns7Dolphins10
Field goal9 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Browns 21
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Dolphins 41
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Dolphins 42 to the Browns 14
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 15 to the Browns 31
Browns7Dolphins16
Browns7Dolphins17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Dolphins 47 to the Browns 14
The period ended5 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Browns7Dolphins23
Browns7Dolphins24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Browns 24
Browns10Dolphins24
Field goal13 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Dolphins 19
Browns10Dolphins30
Touchdown15 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Browns 2
The period ended4 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Browns 31
4th quarter47 plays
Browns16Dolphins30
Browns17Dolphins30
Touchdown6 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Dolphins 33
Browns17Dolphins33
Field goal13 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Browns 15
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 28
Browns17Dolphins39
Touchdown2 plays
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Dolphins 26
The period ended8 plays, from the Dolphins 36 to the Browns 36
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
