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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:23 PM ET · 15 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 13, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 10
It turned at Q1 14:52, 1st and 10, on Donovan Peoples-Jones — 9.7 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Miami Dolphins 39–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:52, Browns +9.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:52 · 1st and 10
Donovan Peoples-Jones
Browns
(14:52) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones to MIA 15 for 38 yards (28-K.Kohou) [92-Z.Sieler].
9.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Dolphins won this one — +0.40 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.09 expected points per snap.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.26 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.22 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Dolphins won this one — 61% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Browns at 5 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(14:52) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones to MIA 15 for 38 yards (28-K.Kohou) [92-Z.Sieler].
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jason Sanders's 39-yard field goal with 11:09 left in the 2nd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Jason Sanders39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap B.FergusonLead never changed again+37–10Tyreek Hill2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoa · kick no good, wide right+610–3010 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categoryDolphins
Dolphins ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 61 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 64 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Dolphins 7.
Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.40 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's sack or hit rate, 2.9%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 0.2 points clear of the next team along.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
MIA's sack or hit rate, 26.2%, is past their previous high of 17.6% in week 6 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
CLE's pass rate over expected, +2.0 pts, is past their previous high of −2.7 pts in week 6 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
MIA's blitz rate sent turned over: 56.8% in week 9 against 23.8% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.5 points. · −0.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Browns2.0 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +9.5 vs their -7.4 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+1.35× that swing) · 61 snaps
Dolphins3.9 ptsright on their number · +1.7 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 82%
Tendencies room →Browns68.2%leaned — passed early · +18.0 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (+1.57× that swing) · 44 early downs
Dolphins51.9%inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 67%
Tendencies room →Browns19.0%right on their number · +0.3 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Dolphins35.3%right on their number · +3.3 vs their 32.0%, and they swing ±13.7 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28% to 118%
Fourth Down room →Browns66.7%right on their number · +9.3 vs their 57.4%, and they swing ±23.1 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Dolphins—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.9%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 69%
Tendencies room →Browns11.8%inside their normal wobble · −11.9 vs their 23.7%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Dolphins23.8%inside their normal wobble · −7.9 vs their 31.7%, and they swing ±14.5 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 32%
Tendencies room →Browns2.9%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.4 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.24× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Dolphins26.2%leaned — got home · +12.6 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.77× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
MIA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.2%, 12.6 points above their season mean of 13.6% and 1.8 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
25/32, 285 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
18.0 expected points added · +8.6% completion over expected
Passing · CLE
22/35, 212 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-6.0 expected points added · +0.8% completion over expected
Receiving · CLE
5/9 for 99 yds, 0 TD
26% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Raheem Mostert banked 8.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 23.4 | +5.1 | 90% | — | 0% | — | 25/32, 285 yd, 3 TD · 1 car, 0 yd |
| Jeffery WilsonRB · Committee Back | 22.3 | +5.6 | 61% | 62% | 15% | 0% | 17 car, 119 yd, 1 TD · 2/5, 24 yd |
| Raheem MostertRB · Receiving Back | 18.7 | +8.2 | 28% | 32% | 12% | 3% | 8 car, 65 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 22 yd |
| Jacoby BrissettQB · Starter QB | 16.5 | −2.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/35, 212 yd, 1 TD · 7 car, 40 yd |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.3 | +5.4 | 65% | 62% | 15% | 21% | 4/5, 63 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyreek HillWR · Featured Receiver | 15.4 | +1.6 | 71% | 85% | 18% | 33% | 5/6, 44 yd, 1 TD |
| Nick ChubbRB · Committee Back | 15.1 | +4.9 | 48% | 43% | 12% | 3% | 11 car, 63 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 18 yd |
| Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.9 | −0.7 | 88% | 88% | 26% | 49% | 5/9, 99 yd |
| Alec IngoldRB · Receiving Back | 14.5 | +7.7 | 61% | 47% | 12% | 2% | 4/4, 45 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | +1.1 | 74% | 91% | 15% | 27% | 4/5, 66 yd |
| Harrison BryantTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.5 | +2.2 | 76% | 81% | 9% | 1% | 3/3, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| Amari CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | +2.0 | 87% | 88% | 9% | 8% | 3/3, 32 yd |
| David BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | −2.5 | 52% | 55% | 15% | 12% | 3/5, 24 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | −2.4 | 46% | 62% | 9% | 11% | 2/3, 31 yd |
| Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −4.8 | 42% | 36% | 15% | 6% | 2/5, 13 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB | 2.9 | −1.1 | 36% | 31% | 3% | 0% | 6 car, 9 yd · 1/1, 10 yd |
| Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | 0.0 | 30% | 21% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Anthony SchwartzWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | 0.0 | 18% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Salvon AhmedRB | 1.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | 0.8 | −0.6 | 18% | 26% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, -2 yd |
| Skylar ThompsonQB | 0.7 | +0.6 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jerome FordRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Mike WoodsWR | 0.0 | −5.4 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −0.4 | 54% | 35% | 0% | — | 1 car, 0 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:20) 24-N.Chubb right tackle to MIA 31 for 3 yards (92-Z.Sieler). FUMBLES (92-Z.Sieler), touched at MIA 31, RECOVERED by MIA-25-X.Howard at MIA 29.
Q1 0:20 · Browns · 2nd & 10 at MIA 34 · gained 3 · -4.59 EP · −12.2% win probability
161 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, manual charting on 142. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 84 yards from the MIA 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Browns6
Dolphins0Browns7Dolphins0Browns7Dolphins6Browns7Dolphins7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Browns7Dolphins10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Browns7Dolphins16Browns7Dolphins17Browns7Dolphins23Browns7Dolphins24Browns10Dolphins24Browns10Dolphins30Browns16Dolphins30Browns17Dolphins30Browns17Dolphins33Browns17Dolphins39Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Dolphins, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 22/35 | 212 | 1 | 0 | 3 | −6.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 11 | 63 | 5.7 | 1 | −3.6 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 | +6.9 |
| Kareem Hunt |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 5 | 9 | 99 | 0 | 26% | +2.5 |
| Amari Cooper | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sione Takitaki | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Delpit | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Ward |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 25/32 | 285 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +18.0 |
| Skylar Thompson | 1/1 | 17 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_10_CLE_MIA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Dolphins closed -3 and covered, winning by 22.
Total closed 49; the game landed 56 — over by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
| 6 |
| 9 |
| 1.5 |
| 0 |
| −2.9 |
| 9% |
| +3.6 |
| David Bell | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 15% | −1.5 |
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 12% | +0.8 |
| Harrison Bryant | 3 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 9% | +0.6 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 15% | −1.3 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −1.1 |
| Mike Woods | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −2.5 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Deion Jones | 2 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Kunaszyk | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| John Johnson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Harrison | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Newsome | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Martin Emerson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alex Wright | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +0.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffery Wilson | 17 | 119 | 7.0 | 1 | +5.0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 8 | 65 | 8.1 | 1 | +4.5 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Skylar Thompson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 | 15% | +6.8 |
| Trent Sherfield | 4 | 5 | 63 | 1 | 15% | +3.8 |
| Alec Ingold | 4 | 4 | 45 | 1 | 12% | +3.5 |
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 6 | 44 | 1 | 18% | +2.9 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 9% | +2.0 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 15% | −0.9 |
| Raheem Mostert | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 12% | +0.4 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Wilkins | 3 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Baker | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Bethel | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Elandon Roberts | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Verone McKinley | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kader Kohou | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Bradley Chubb | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavien Howard | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duke Riley | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
