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2022 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 27, 2022 · Lumen Field

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

40

Seattle Seahawks

34

SEA -4 upsetO 47.5 ✓

Las Vegas Raiders 40–34. Biggest swing: OT 4:32, SEA +69% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4SEA ↑LV ↓
OT · 4:32LV 40 — SEA 34LV ball · 1st & 10SEA 69%

(4:32) 28-J.Jacobs right guard for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. OT · 4:32SEA +69% win prob(4:32) 28-J.Jacobs right guard for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. OT · 4:39SEA +37% win prob(4:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to LV 14, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 84-K.Cole.
  3. Q4 · 11:54LV +21% win prob(11:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith to LV 27 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by LV-55-C.Jones at LV 27.
  4. OT · 5:56LV +16% win prob(5:56) 2-D.Carlson 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 14:39SEA Touchdown

    (14:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-K.Walker right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 0 — SEA 7
  2. Q1 · 9:30LV Touchdown

    (9:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 22-A.Abdullah for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LV-22-A.Abdullah, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 7 — SEA 7
  3. Q1 · 4:27SEA Field goal

    (4:27) 5-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: LV 7 — SEA 10
  4. Q2 · 13:38SEA Field goal

    (13:38) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: LV 7 — SEA 13
  5. Q2 · 10:12LV Touchdown

    (10:12) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 10-M.Hollins for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 14 — SEA 13
  6. Q2 · 8:36LV Touchdown

    (8:36) 28-J.Jacobs right tackle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 21 — SEA 13
  7. Q2 · 5:27SEA Touchdown

    (5:27) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 21 — SEA 20
  8. Q2 · 0:14LV Field goal

    (:14) 2-D.Carlson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LV 24 — SEA 20
  9. Q3 · 11:55SEA Touchdown

    (11:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-K.Walker left guard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 24 — SEA 27
  10. Q3 · 5:06LV Field goal

    (5:06) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LV 27 — SEA 27
  11. Q4 · 5:44SEA Touchdown

    (5:44) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 25-T.Homer for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 27 — SEA 34
  12. Q4 · 2:00LV Touchdown

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 87-F.Moreau for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 34 — SEA 34
  13. OT · 4:32LV Touchdown

    (4:32) 28-J.Jacobs right guard for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: LV 40 — SEA 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRaidersSeahawks
Offensive plays7762
Total yards576 (edge)373
Yards per play7.5 (edge)6.0
Expected points added / play0.21 (edge)0.03
Success rate51%53% (edge)
Dropback rate51%68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.36 (edge)0.25
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.05 (edge)-0.42
Third downs8/14 (edge)3/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)1010
First downs gained on snaps27 (edge)21
Sacks taken1 (edge)3
Turnovers22

Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

27/37, 328 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

8.0 expected points added · +6.2% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

25/36, 295 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

13.6 expected points added · +3.6% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

33 att, 229 yds, 2 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth WalkerRB

14 att, 26 yds, 2 TD

-3.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

DK MetcalfWR

11/15 for 90 yds, 0 TD

41% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Josh JacobsRB

6/7 for 74 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LVLV 20200:15Interception
2SEALV 123120:13Touchdown +7
3LVLV 2513755:08Touchdown +7
4SEASEA 36702:40Punt
5LVLV 24220:49Interception
6SEALV 355291:32Field goal +3
7LVLV 24501:43Punt
8SEASEA 378524:06Field goal +3
9LVLV 398613:32Touchdown +7
10SEASEA 254111:26Interception
11LVSEA 302300:07Touchdown +7
12SEASEA 259753:08Touchdown +7
13LVLV 2514625:11Field goal +3
14SEASEA 25200:10End of half
15SEASEA 259753:14Touchdown +7
16LVLV 2512736:43Field goal +3
17SEASEA 25531:51Punt
18LVLV 186372:28Punt
19SEASEA 99643:54Fumble
20LVLV 276202:55Turnover on downs
21SEALV 478423:18Touchdown +7
22LVLV 2512803:43Touchdown +7
23SEASEA 25751:14Punt
24LVLV 92130:40Turnover on downs
25LVLV 259374:09Missed field goal
26SEASEA 46451:19Punt
27LVLV 141860:12Touchdown +6

13 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 86 scrimmage yards over 1 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Derek Carr25/3629532113.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs332296.921.5
Zamir White22814.001.7
Ameer Abdullah3165.30-1.4
Derek Carr2105.000.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Josh Jacobs6774019%4.3
Davante Adams71174031%0.7
Mack Hollins4563114%5.0
Ameer Abdullah333918%6.2
Foster Moreau3733119%-1.9
Keelan Cole221206%1.1
Jakob Johnson01003%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Denzel Perryman350.011
Duron Harmon700.001
Sam Webb500.000
Jayon Brown230.000
Maxx Crosby311.501
Andrew Billings221.000
Bilal Nichols030.500
Roderic Teamer300.000
Rock Ya-Sin300.000
Trevon Moehrig300.001

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Geno Smith27/373282138.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenneth Walker14261.92-3.5
Geno Smith5224.40-2.6
Travis Homer284.00-0.0
Marquise Goodwin177.000.7
DeeJay Dallas122.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DK Metcalf111590041%1.5
Tyler Lockett3768119%-1.3
Marquise Goodwin334808%3.4
Travis Homer234518%4.0
Noah Fant333408%1.8
Will Dissly231708%-0.3
Kenneth Walker111303%1.2
DeeJay Dallas221305%1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordyn Brooks790.001
Cody Barton740.001
Ryan Neal420.000
Michael Jackson330.001
Quandre Diggs330.022
Poona Ford311.000
Tariq Woolen130.000
Al Woods310.000
Coby Bryant220.000
Bruce Irvin120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SEA -4
Closing total
47.5
LV moneyline
+174
SEA moneyline
-196

Seahawks closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 74 — over by 26.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
44°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
LV 7 days · SEA 14 days
Coaches
Josh McDaniels vs Pete Carroll