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2022 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 4, 2022 · Paycor Stadium

Kansas City Chiefs

24

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

27

KC -2.5 upsetU 53 ✓

Cincinnati Bengals 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:24, KC +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CIN ↑KC ↓
Q4 · 3:24KC 24 — CIN 27KC ball · 4th & 7CIN 63%

(3:24) 7-H.Butker 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 3:24KC +16% win prob(3:24) 7-H.Butker 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
  2. Q3 · 14:15CIN +14% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling to CIN 32 for 42 yards (20-E.Apple) [91-T.Hendrickson].
  3. Q4 · 4:09KC +14% win prob(4:09) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at CIN 37 for -4 yards (58-J.Ossai).
  4. Q4 · 9:00CIN +13% win prob(9:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 25-C.Evans for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:54CIN Touchdown

    (8:54) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 0 — CIN 7
  2. Q1 · 4:00KC Field goal

    (4:00) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: KC 3 — CIN 7
  3. Q2 · 13:39CIN Touchdown

    (13:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 85-T.Higgins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CIN-1-J.Chase, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 3 — CIN 14
  4. Q2 · 2:28KC Touchdown

    (2:28) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-J.McKinnon for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 10 — CIN 14
  5. Q3 · 12:07KC Touchdown

    (12:07) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 17 — CIN 14
  6. Q3 · 7:20CIN Field goal

    (7:20) 2-E.McPherson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

    Score after this play: KC 17 — CIN 17
  7. Q3 · 3:57KC Touchdown

    (3:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 24 — CIN 17
  8. Q4 · 14:52CIN Field goal

    (14:52) 2-E.McPherson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

    Score after this play: KC 24 — CIN 20
  9. Q4 · 9:00CIN Touchdown

    (9:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 25-C.Evans for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 24 — CIN 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChiefsBengals
Offensive plays5464
Total yards349433 (edge)
Yards per play6.56.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.240.26 (edge)
Success rate54%56% (edge)
Dropback rate57%56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.220.53 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.26 (edge)-0.08
Third downs6/117/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps2123 (edge)
Sacks taken21 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs 0.24.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

25/31, 286 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

19.8 expected points added · +10.6% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

16/27, 223 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.5 expected points added · +5.6% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Samaje PerineRB

21 att, 106 yds, 0 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

14 att, 66 yds, 1 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

7/8 for 97 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR

2/6 for 71 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CINCIN 2513756:11Touchdown +7
2KCKC 2711654:53Field goal +3
3CINCIN 2611495:23Touchdown +7
4KCKC 305-52:13Punt
5CINCIN 354161:52Punt
6KCKC 1915817:05Touchdown +7
7CINCIN 239701:34Turnover on downs
8KCKC 72190:49End of half
9KCKC 239772:57Touchdown +7
10CINCIN 2510574:47Field goal +3
11KCKC 4710533:27Touchdown +7
12CINCIN 259624:02Field goal +3
13KCKC 243210:55Fumble
14CINCIN 4711634:58Touchdown +7
15KCKC 2511385:35Missed field goal
16CINCIN 4510413:19End of game

9 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 81 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes16/272231027.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isiah Pacheco14664.713.2
Jerick McKinnon8516.402.1
Skyy Moore11212.000.7
Patrick Mahomes294.514.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Marquez Valdes-Scantling2671026%4.1
Travis Kelce4656026%-4.1
JuJu Smith-Schuster3435017%5.4
Isiah Pacheco221609%1.0
Justin Watson111504%1.0
Noah Gray111504%0.9
Jerick McKinnon22919%2.2
Joseph Fortson11604%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nick Bolton680.000
Juan Thornhill540.000
Joshua Williams510.000
Willie Gay320.001
L'Jarius Sneed230.000
Trent McDuffie320.000
Justin Reid310.000
George Karlaftis301.000
Frank Clark120.000
Carlos Dunlap300.000

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Burrow25/3128620119.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Samaje Perine211065.000.2
Joe Burrow11464.21-3.7
Trayveon Williams133.00-0.2
Trent Taylor1-3-3.00-3.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ja'Marr Chase7897026%7.2
Tyler Boyd4560016%3.7
Samaje Perine6749023%3.8
Tee Higgins3535116%3.5
Mitchell Wilcox111303%0.9
Trenton Irwin111203%0.4
Hayden Hurst2312010%-0.2
Chris Evans11813%1.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jessie Bates440.000
Logan Wilson430.000
B.J. Hill310.000
Germaine Pratt220.000
Sam Hubbard301.000
Cam Taylor-Britt210.001
Eli Apple210.000
Mike Hilton300.000
Akeem Davis-Gaither110.000
Cam Sample200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -2.5
Closing total
53
KC moneyline
-132
CIN moneyline
+120

Chiefs closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 53; the game landed 51 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
57°F, wind 2 mph
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
KC 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Zac Taylor