2022 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 4, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

Atlanta Falcons

PIT -1 ✓U 43 ✓DomeSteelers closed -1 and covered, winning by 3.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 8:26, ATL +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 8:26PIT 6 — ATL 3PIT ball · 3rd & 4PIT 66%

(8:26) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth to ATL 12 for 57 yards (54-R.Evans; 37-D.Alford).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 8:26ATL +12% win prob(8:26) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth to ATL 12 for 57 yards (54-R.Evans; 37-D.Alford).
Q4 · 0:42PIT +8% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep left intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick (97-C.Heyward) [97-C.Heyward] at ATL 20. 39-M.Fitzpatrick ran ob at ATL 4 for 16 yards.
Q4 · 7:41ATL +8% win prob(7:41) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short right to 86-A.Firkser to PIT 10 for 15 yards (34-T.Edmunds).
Q2 · 13:39ATL +6% win prob(13:39) 4-M.Wright 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:38PIT Field goal
(7:38) 4-M.Wright 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: PIT 3 — ATL 0
Q2 · 13:39PIT Field goal
(13:39) 4-M.Wright 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: PIT 6 — ATL 0
Q2 · 9:20ATL Field goal
(9:20) 7-Y.Koo 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: PIT 6 — ATL 3
Q2 · 7:12PIT Touchdown
(7:12) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 83-Co.Heyward for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 13 — ATL 3
Q2 · 5:10ATL Field goal
(5:10) 7-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: PIT 13 — ATL 6
Q2 · 1:34PIT Field goal
(1:34) 4-M.Wright 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: PIT 16 — ATL 6
Q3 · 4:49PIT Field goal
(4:49) 4-M.Wright 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: PIT 19 — ATL 6
Q3 · 0:51ATL Touchdown
(:51) (No Huddle) 1-M.Mariota pass short right to 85-M.Pruitt for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 19 — ATL 13
Q4 · 5:29ATL Field goal
(5:29) 7-Y.Koo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: PIT 19 — ATL 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Falcons
Offensive plays	64	53
Total yards	352 (edge)	306
Yards per play	5.5	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.18 (edge)	-0.01
Success rate	55% (edge)	51%
Dropback rate	48%	47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.32 (edge)	-0.20
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05	0.16 (edge)
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	1	1

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Kenny PickettQB

16/28, 197 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

9.1 expected points added · -4.9% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Marcus MariotaQB

13/24, 167 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-5.0 expected points added · -5.3% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

17 att, 86 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Cordarrelle PattersonRB

11 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

6/12 for 95 yds, 0 TD

50% of team targets · -3.0 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Pat FreiermuthTE

3/5 for 76 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	17	52	7:27	Field goal +3
2	ATL	ATL 21	9	38	3:36	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 14	12	58	5:23	Field goal +3
4	ATL	ATL 26	9	42	4:19	Field goal +3
5	PIT	PIT 25	6	80	2:09	Touchdown +7
6	ATL	ATL 25	6	42	2:01	Field goal +3
7	PIT	PIT 25	10	45	3:36	Field goal +3
8	ATL	ATL 25	7	21	1:00	Punt
9	PIT	PIT 14	1	4	0:29	End of half
10	ATL	ATL 26	8	15	2:38	Punt
11	PIT	PIT 10	14	71	7:36	Field goal +3
12	ATL	ATL 25	10	70	4:03	Touchdown +7
13	PIT	PIT 25	5	2	0:55	Fumble
14	ATL	ATL 26	16	78	9:21	Field goal +3
15	PIT	PIT 25	11	40	4:45	Punt
16	ATL	ATL 2	1	0	0:07	Interception
17	PIT	ATL 4	1	0	0:35	End of game

9 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kenny Pickett	16/28	197	1	0	0	9.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Najee Harris	17	86	5.1	0.6
Benny Snell	6	24	4.0	1.0
Steven Sims	3	19	6.3	1.2
Kenny Pickett	7	14	2.0	-5.4
Jaylen Warren	1	5	5.0	0.4
Derek Watt	1	4	4.0	0.6
Gunner Olszewski	2	2	1.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Pat Freiermuth	3	5	76	0	19%	6.9
Diontae Johnson	5	11	60	0	41%	0.2
Connor Heyward	1	1	17	1	4%	2.6
Jaylen Warren	2	2	14	0	7%	-0.4
Benny Snell	1	1	11	0	4%	2.4
Zach Gentry	1	1	8	0	4%	0.5
Najee Harris	1	1	6	0	4%	0.6
Derek Watt	1	1	3	0	4%	-0.3
George Pickens	1	2	2	0	7%	-1.2
Steven Sims	0	2	0	0	7%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Minkah Fitzpatrick	5	2	0.0	1	1
Levi Wallace	3	3	0.0	0	0
Myles Jack	2	3	0.0	0	0
Terrell Edmunds	2	2	0.0	0	0
Devin Bush	3	1	0.0	0	0
Cameron Heyward	2	2	1.0	0	1
Cameron Sutton	3	1	0.0	0	1
Larry Ogunjobi	3	0	0.0	0	0
T.J. Watt	2	0	0.0	0	0
Chris Wormley	1	1	0.0	0	0

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Marcus Mariota	13/24	167	1	1	1	-5.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Cordarrelle Patterson	11	60	5.5	0.6
Tyler Allgeier	10	52	5.2	2.8
Marcus Mariota	3	17	5.7	2.0
Caleb Huntley	4	17	4.3	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Drake London	6	12	95	0	50%	-3.0
Anthony Firkser	2	2	24	0	8%	1.2
Parker Hesse	1	1	16	0	4%	1.4
Olamide Zaccheaus	2	5	13	0	21%	-2.3
Damiere Byrd	1	1	12	0	4%	-0.6
MyCole Pruitt	1	1	7	1	4%	1.6
KhaDarel Hodge	0	2	0	0	8%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Rashaan Evans	4	10	0
Richie Grant	3	5	0
Mykal Walker	1	6	0
Darren Hall	3	4	0
Adetokunbo Ogundeji	2	4	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	1	4	0
Troy Andersen	2	2	0
A.J. Terrell	2	0	2
Grady Jarrett	1	1	0
KhaDarel Hodge	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -1
Closing total: 43
PIT moneyline: -113
ATL moneyline: +103

Steelers closed -1 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 43; the game landed 35 — under by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: PIT 6 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Arthur Smith