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2022 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 11, 2022 · Nissan Stadium

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

36

Tennessee Titans

22

TEN -3 upsetO 42 ✓

Jacksonville Jaguars 36–22. Biggest swing: Q2 2:00, JAX +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TEN ↑JAX ↓
Q2 · 2:00JAX 13 — TEN 14TEN ball · 1st & 10TEN 69%

(2:00) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 22-D.Henry to JAX 21 for 16 yards (50-S.Quarterman). FUMBLES (50-S.Quarterman), RECOVERED by JAX-41-J.Allen at JAX 21. 41-J.Allen pushed ob at JAX 22 for 1 yard (78-N.Petit-Frere

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 2:00JAX +14% win prob(2:00) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 22-D.Henry to JAX 21 for 16 yards (50-S.Quarterman). FUMBLES (50-S.Quarterman), RECOVERED by JAX-41-J.Allen at JAX 21. 41-J.Allen pushed ob at JAX 22 for 1 yard (78-N.Petit-Frere).
  2. Q1 · 6:53JAX +13% win prob(6:53) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 19 for -9 yards (44-T.Walker). FUMBLES (44-T.Walker) [44-T.Walker], touched at TEN 19, RECOVERED by JAX-91-D.Smoot at TEN 20.
  3. Q2 · 0:15TEN +11% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 7-Z.Jones (21-R.McCreary). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q1 · 5:56TEN +11% win prob(5:56) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to JAX 25 for 50 yards (42-A.Wingard, 31-D.Williams).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:13TEN Touchdown

    (9:13) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 0 — TEN 7
  2. Q1 · 6:07JAX Touchdown

    (6:07) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 17-E.Engram for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-94-M.Edwards, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — TEN 7
  3. Q1 · 3:09TEN Touchdown

    (3:09) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 85-C.Okonkwo for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-A.Gotsis]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — TEN 14
  4. Q2 · 8:56JAX Field goal

    (8:56) 10-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 10 — TEN 14
  5. Q2 · 3:15JAX Field goal

    (3:15) 10-R.Patterson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 13 — TEN 14
  6. Q2 · 0:15JAX Touchdown

    (:15) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 7-Z.Jones (21-R.McCreary). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 20 — TEN 14
  7. Q3 · 7:58JAX Touchdown

    (7:58) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-98-J.Simmons, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 27 — TEN 14
  8. Q3 · 3:12JAX Touchdown

    (3:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 17-E.Engram for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: JAX 33 — TEN 14
  9. Q4 · 10:55JAX Field goal

    (10:55) 10-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 36 — TEN 14
  10. Q4 · 7:20TEN Touchdown

    (7:20) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [42-A.Wingard]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: JAX 36 — TEN 22

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsTitans
Offensive plays6763
Total yards429 (edge)366
Yards per play6.4 (edge)5.8
Expected points added / play0.17 (edge)-0.13
Success rate48% (edge)48%
Dropback rate66%71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.40 (edge)-0.15
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.26-0.09 (edge)
Third downs6/135/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps2223 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)4
Turnovers0 (edge)4

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

30/42, 368 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

18.2 expected points added · +4.5% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

25/38, 254 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-3.6 expected points added · +0.9% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

17 att, 121 yds, 1 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

17 att, 32 yds, 0 TD

-6.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Evan EngramTE

11/15 for 162 yds, 2 TD

36% of team targets · 12.0 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Zay JonesWR

8/12 for 77 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TENTEN 2412665:51Touchdown +7
2JAXJAX 25550:56Punt
3TENTEN 243-51:27Fumble
4JAXTEN 204200:45Touchdown +7
5TENTEN 258752:58Touchdown +7
6JAXJAX 257122:41Punt
7TENTEN 295332:26Interception
8JAXJAX 467554:04Field goal +3
9TENTEN 25561:36Punt
10JAXJAX 2910464:06Field goal +3
11TENTEN 404391:21Fumble
12JAXJAX 227781:38Touchdown +7
13TENTEN 403160:11End of half
14JAXJAX 2814797:07Touchdown +7
15TENTEN 255-82:37Punt
16JAXJAX 376432:09Touchdown +6
17TENTEN 23501:34Punt
18JAXJAX 355342:24Turnover on downs
19TENTEN 36100:05Fumble
20JAXTEN 306163:12Field goal +3
21TENTEN 3612813:37Touchdown +8
22JAXJAX 146281:51Punt
23TENTEN 913633:25Turnover on downs
24JAXJAX 284131:59End of game

10 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 81 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence30/4236830018.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne17321.90-6.4
Jamycal Hasty4133.30-1.0
Jamal Agnew188.000.6
Trevor Lawrence372.310.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Evan Engram1115162236%12.0
Zay Jones81277129%3.9
Christian Kirk5745017%-0.8
Jamal Agnew333607%2.2
Marvin Jones112202%1.5
Chris Manhertz112102%1.2
Dan Arnold13507%-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foyesade Oluokun640.000
Devin Lloyd340.000
Andrew Wingard510.011
Arden Key221.000
Rayshawn Jenkins220.000
Tre Herndon120.002
Shaquille Quarterman120.000
Travon Walker211.000
Roy Robertson-Harris120.001
Josh Hines-Allen201.000

Tennessee Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Ryan Tannehill25/38254214-3.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Derrick Henry171217.11-1.2
Ryan Tannehill2168.001.7
Chigoziem Okonkwo100.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Austin Hooper5568013%4.3
Robert Woods5749018%2.5
Chigoziem Okonkwo6645116%5.0
Derrick Henry3534013%-3.7
Chris Conley112703%1.9
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine3823121%-3.4
Julius Chestnut22805%-1.2
Racey McMath040011%-4.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Monty Rice550.000
Andrew Adams620.001
Roger McCreary410.000
Bud Dupree410.000
Dylan Cole220.000
Amani Hooker400.001
Terrance Mitchell400.000
Greg Mabin110.000
Ryan Tannehill100.000
Joseph Jones100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
TEN -3
Closing total
42
JAX moneyline
+151
TEN moneyline
-169

Titans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42; the game landed 58 — over by 16.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
54°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
JAX 7 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Mike Vrabel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.