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2022 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 11, 2022 · SoFi Stadium

Miami Dolphins

17

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

23

MIA -3 upsetU 54.5 ✓Dome

Los Angeles Chargers 23–17. Biggest swing: Q1 14:46, LAC +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LACMIA
Q1 · 14:46MIA 0LAC 0MIA ball · 4th & 10MIA 51%

(14:46) 4-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to LAC 20, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 1-D.Carter to LAC 20 for no gain (22-E.Campbell).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 14:46LAC +19% win prob(14:46) 4-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to LAC 20, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 1-D.Carter to LAC 20 for no gain (22-E.Campbell).
  2. Q3 · 6:31LAC +18% win prob(6:31) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q1 · 14:37LAC +15% win prob(14:37) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 7-G.Everett pushed ob at LAC 31 for 11 yards (21-E.Rowe).
  4. Q2 · 9:02LAC +14% win prob(9:02) (Shotgun) 23-J.Wilson up the middle to MIA 47 for 6 yards (32-A.Gilman). FUMBLES (32-A.Gilman), touched at MIA 44, recovered by MIA-10-T.Hill at MIA 43. 10-T.Hill for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 14:18LAC Field goal

    (14:18) 15-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: MIA 0LAC 3
  2. Q2 · 9:57LAC Touchdown

    (9:57) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 81-M.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 0LAC 10
  3. Q2 · 9:02MIA Touchdown

    (9:02) (Shotgun) 23-J.Wilson up the middle to MIA 47 for 6 yards (32-A.Gilman). FUMBLES (32-A.Gilman), touched at MIA 44, recovered by MIA-10-T.Hill at MIA 43. 10-T.Hill for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 7LAC 10
  4. Q2 · 0:21LAC Touchdown

    (:21) 74-S.Norton reported in as eligible. 30-A.Ekeler left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 7LAC 17
  5. Q3 · 6:31MIA Touchdown

    (6:31) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 14LAC 17
  6. Q3 · 4:22LAC Field goal

    (4:22) 15-C.Dicker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: MIA 14LAC 20
  7. Q4 · 2:43LAC Field goal

    (2:43) 15-C.Dicker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: MIA 14LAC 23
  8. Q4 · 1:15MIA Field goal

    (1:15) 7-J.Sanders 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: MIA 17LAC 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricDolphinsChargers
Offensive plays4976
Total yards219434 (edge)
Yards per play4.55.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.080.03 (edge)
Success rate33%39% (edge)
Dropback rate67%74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.170.06 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.10 (edge)-0.06
Third downs3/119/18 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)48 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1122 (edge)
Sacks taken2 (edge)4
Turnovers00

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

39/51, 367 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

1.7 expected points added · +7.9% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

10/28, 145 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-7.9 expected points added · -24.5% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

15 att, 45 yds, 1 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

11 att, 37 yds, 0 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Mike WilliamsWR

6/6 for 116 yds, 1 TD

13% of team targets · 9.2 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

12/14 for 92 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MIAMIA 25500:23Punt
2LACLAC 2015738:39Turnover on downs
3MIAMIA 27143:22Punt
4LACLAC 438423:22Field goal +3
5MIAMIA 255-91:33Punt
6LACMIA 436432:52Touchdown +7
7MIAMIA 25591:04Turnover on downs +7
8LACLAC 25512:23Punt
9MIAMIA 148332:19Punt
10LACLAC 1014903:45Touchdown +7
11MIAMIA 25380:18End of half
12LACLAC 255111:28Punt
13MIAMIA 35410:55Punt
14LACLAC 177193:32Punt
15MIAMIA 246762:42Touchdown +7
16LACLAC 257672:05Field goal +3
17MIAMIA 257152:43Punt
18LACLAC 13491:43Punt
19MIAMIA 267393:33Punt
20LACLAC 1117798:39Field goal +3
21MIAMIA 258331:30Field goal +3
22LACLAC 49301:10End of game

8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 90 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa10/28145102-7.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Raheem Mostert11373.40-3.2
Tua Tagovailoa3289.302.2
Jeffery Wilson4266.505.5
Salvon Ahmed111.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyreek Hill41081142%1.5
Jaylen Waddle2431017%-0.3
Cedrick Wilson221908%2.3
Raheem Mostert11704%0.1
Trent Sherfield147017%-1.8
Mike Gesicki02008%-2.1
Alec Ingold01004%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jerome Baker651.000
Christian Wilkins531.000
Kader Kohou620.000
Eric Rowe611.000
Zach Sieler330.000
Jaelan Phillips421.000
Jevon Holland220.000
Elandon Roberts400.000
Xavien Howard220.000
Keion Crossen210.000

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert39/513671041.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Austin Ekeler15453.01-1.0
Joshua Kelley4297.300.8
Justin Herbert482.000.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mike Williams66116113%9.2
Keenan Allen121492029%2.4
Austin Ekeler8859017%-0.1
Josh Palmer4653013%3.0
Gerald Everett5828017%-1.0
Stone Smartt11802%-0.2
Joshua Kelley12604%-0.6
Tre' McKitty11502%-0.0
DeAndre Carter12004%-3.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kenneth Murray510.000
Drue Tranquill310.002
Ja'Sir Taylor220.000
Nasir Adderley210.000
Alohi Gilman210.001
Asante Samuel300.001
Breiden Fehoko110.000
Kyle Van Noy201.000
Morgan Fox111.000
Michael Davis100.002

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIA -3
Closing total
54.5
MIA moneyline
-163
LAC moneyline
+146

Dolphins closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 54.5; the game landed 40 — under by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
MIA 7 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs Brandon Staley