2022 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 11, 2022 · SoFi Stadium
Miami Dolphins
17
Los Angeles ChargersWinner
23
Los Angeles Chargers 23–17. Biggest swing: Q1 14:46, LAC +19% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(14:46) 4-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to LAC 20, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 1-D.Carter to LAC 20 for no gain (22-E.Campbell).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 14:46LAC +19% win prob(14:46) 4-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to LAC 20, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 1-D.Carter to LAC 20 for no gain (22-E.Campbell).
- Q3 · 6:31LAC +18% win prob(6:31) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q1 · 14:37LAC +15% win prob(14:37) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 7-G.Everett pushed ob at LAC 31 for 11 yards (21-E.Rowe).
- Q2 · 9:02LAC +14% win prob(9:02) (Shotgun) 23-J.Wilson up the middle to MIA 47 for 6 yards (32-A.Gilman). FUMBLES (32-A.Gilman), touched at MIA 44, recovered by MIA-10-T.Hill at MIA 43. 10-T.Hill for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q2 · 14:18LAC Field goal
(14:18) 15-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: MIA 0 — LAC 3 - Q2 · 9:57LAC Touchdown
(9:57) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 81-M.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 0 — LAC 10 - Q2 · 9:02MIA Touchdown
(9:02) (Shotgun) 23-J.Wilson up the middle to MIA 47 for 6 yards (32-A.Gilman). FUMBLES (32-A.Gilman), touched at MIA 44, recovered by MIA-10-T.Hill at MIA 43. 10-T.Hill for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 7 — LAC 10 - Q2 · 0:21LAC Touchdown
(:21) 74-S.Norton reported in as eligible. 30-A.Ekeler left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 7 — LAC 17 - Q3 · 6:31MIA Touchdown
(6:31) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 14 — LAC 17 - Q3 · 4:22LAC Field goal
(4:22) 15-C.Dicker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: MIA 14 — LAC 20 - Q4 · 2:43LAC Field goal
(2:43) 15-C.Dicker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: MIA 14 — LAC 23 - Q4 · 1:15MIA Field goal
(1:15) 7-J.Sanders 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: MIA 17 — LAC 23
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Dolphins | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 49 | 76 |
| Total yards | 219 | 434 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.5 | 5.7 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.08 | 0.03 (edge) |
| Success rate | 33% | 39% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 67% | 74% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.17 | 0.06 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.10 (edge) | -0.06 |
| Third downs | 3/11 | 9/18 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 4 | 8 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 11 | 22 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 2 (edge) | 4 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · LAC
39/51, 367 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
1.7 expected points added · +7.9% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
10/28, 145 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-7.9 expected points added · -24.5% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | MIA 25 | 5 | 0 | 0:23 | Punt | |
| 2 | LAC | LAC 20 | 15 | 73 | 8:39 | Turnover on downs | |
| 3 | MIA | MIA 2 | 7 | 14 | 3:22 | Punt | |
| 4 | LAC | LAC 43 | 8 | 42 | 3:22 | Field goal +3 | |
| 5 | MIA | MIA 25 | 5 | -9 | 1:33 | Punt | |
| 6 | LAC | MIA 43 | 6 | 43 | 2:52 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 7 | MIA | MIA 25 | 5 | 9 | 1:04 | Turnover on downs +7 | |
| 8 | LAC | LAC 25 | 5 | 1 | 2:23 | Punt | |
| 9 | MIA | MIA 14 | 8 | 33 | 2:19 | Punt | |
| 10 | LAC | LAC 10 | 14 | 90 | 3:45 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 11 | MIA | MIA 25 | 3 | 8 | 0:18 | End of half | |
| 12 | LAC | LAC 25 | 5 | 11 | 1:28 | Punt | |
| 13 | MIA | MIA 35 | 4 | 1 | 0:55 | Punt | |
| 14 | LAC | LAC 17 | 7 | 19 | 3:32 | Punt | |
| 15 | MIA | MIA 24 | 6 | 76 | 2:42 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 16 | LAC | LAC 25 | 7 | 67 | 2:05 | Field goal +3 | |
| 17 | MIA | MIA 25 | 7 | 15 | 2:43 | Punt | |
| 18 | LAC | LAC 13 | 4 | 9 | 1:43 | Punt | |
| 19 | MIA | MIA 26 | 7 | 39 | 3:33 | Punt | |
| 20 | LAC | LAC 11 | 17 | 79 | 8:39 | Field goal +3 | |
| 21 | MIA | MIA 25 | 8 | 33 | 1:30 | Field goal +3 | |
| 22 | LAC | LAC 49 | 3 | 0 | 1:10 | End of game |
8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 90 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Miami Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 10/28 | 145 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -7.9 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 | -3.2 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 | 2.2 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 | 5.5 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 10 | 81 | 1 | 42% | 1.5 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 17% | -0.3 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 8% | 2.3 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | 0.1 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 17% | -1.8 |
| Mike Gesicki | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | -2.1 |
| Alec Ingold | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -1.0 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Baker | 6 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Wilkins | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kader Kohou | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Rowe | 6 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jevon Holland | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elandon Roberts | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavien Howard | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keion Crossen | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Los Angeles Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 39/51 | 367 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1.7 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 1 | -1.0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 | 0.6 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 6 | 6 | 116 | 1 | 13% | 9.2 |
| Keenan Allen | 12 | 14 | 92 | 0 | 29% | 2.4 |
| Austin Ekeler | 8 | 8 | 59 | 0 | 17% | -0.1 |
| Josh Palmer | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 | 13% | 3.0 |
| Gerald Everett | 5 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 17% | -1.0 |
| Stone Smartt | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2% | -0.2 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 4% | -0.6 |
| Tre' McKitty | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2% | -0.0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -3.3 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Murray | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drue Tranquill | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ja'Sir Taylor | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nasir Adderley | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alohi Gilman | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Asante Samuel | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Breiden Fehoko | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Morgan Fox | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Davis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- MIA -3
- Closing total
- 54.5
- MIA moneyline
- -163
- LAC moneyline
- +146
Dolphins closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 54.5; the game landed 40 — under by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- SoFi Stadium
- Roof / surface
- dome · matrixturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Scott Novak
- Rest
- MIA 7 days · LAC 7 days
- Coaches
- Mike McDaniel vs Brandon Staley