2022 Wild Card · Mon, Jan 16, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium

Dallas CowboysWinner

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

DAL -2.5 ✓U 45.5 ✓Cowboys closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Dallas Cowboys 31–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:47, TB +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 14:47DAL 0 — TB 0DAL ball · 4th & 10TB 54%

(14:47) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to TB 25, Center-45-M.Overton. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 35 for 10 yards (85-N.Brown).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 14:47TB +18% win prob(14:47) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to TB 25, Center-45-M.Overton. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 35 for 10 yards (85-N.Brown).
Q1 · 14:50DAL +10% win prob(14:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 16-T.Hilton.
Q1 · 14:35TB +10% win prob(14:35) 29-R.White up the middle to TB 33 for -2 yards (11-M.Parsons).
Q2 · 14:58DAL +9% win prob(14:58) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle intended for 17-R.Gage INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Kearse at DAL -9. Touchback.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:34DAL Touchdown
(6:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 86-D.Schultz for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: DAL 6 — TB 0
Q2 · 6:18DAL Touchdown
(6:18) 4-D.Prescott left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: DAL 12 — TB 0
Q2 · 0:34DAL Touchdown
(:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 86-D.Schultz for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-L.David].
Score after this play: DAL 18 — TB 0
Q3 · 10:11DAL Touchdown
(10:11) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 13-M.Gallup for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Score after this play: DAL 24 — TB 0
Q3 · 0:05TB Touchdown
(:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 6-J.Jones for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: DAL 24 — TB 6
Q4 · 10:18DAL Touchdown
(10:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DAL 31 — TB 6
Q4 · 2:09TB Touchdown
(2:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 84-C.Brate for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: DAL 31 — TB 14

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cowboys	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	67	82
Total yards	426 (edge)	388
Yards per play	6.4 (edge)	4.7
Expected points added / play	0.37 (edge)	-0.05
Success rate	55% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	55%	85%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.68 (edge)	-0.05
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.03
Third downs	7/13	10/18 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	24	26 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs -0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

35/66, 351 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-3.6 expected points added · -13.0% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

25/33, 305 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

23.9 expected points added · +13.4% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Tony PollardRB

15 att, 77 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

7 att, 41 yds, 0 TD

1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

Dalton SchultzTE

7/8 for 95 yds, 2 TD

25% of team targets · 9.1 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

10/13 for 85 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 1.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 25	5	0	0:25	Punt
2	TB	TB 35	4	-2	1:00	Punt
3	DAL	DAL 29	4	-5	2:15	Punt
4	TB	TB 41	4	5	1:20	Punt
5	DAL	DAL 20	8	65	3:32	Touchdown +6
6	TB	TB 25	15	70	6:37	Interception
7	DAL	DAL 20	16	90	8:38	Touchdown +6
8	TB	TB 25	7	22	2:41	Punt
9	DAL	DAL 9	12	96	3:05	Touchdown +6
10	TB	TB 25	6	25	0:27	End of half
11	TB	TB 27	5	6	0:49	Punt
12	DAL	DAL 14	9	81	4:07	Touchdown +6
13	TB	TB 19	10	24	1:55	Fumble
14	DAL	DAL 22	9	31	5:00	Punt
15	TB	TB 5	11	95	3:09	Touchdown +6
16	DAL	DAL 34	11	66	4:47	Touchdown +7
17	TB	TB 16	13	73	3:53	Turnover on downs
18	DAL	DAL 12	4	2	1:37	Punt
19	TB	TB 48	12	54	2:39	Touchdown +8
20	TB	TB 49	7	16	0:56	Turnover on downs
21	DAL	DAL 35	2	0	1:08	End of game

7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 96 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	25/33	305	4	0	1	23.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tony Pollard	15	77	5.1	0	-0.3
Ezekiel Elliott	13	27	2.1	0	-3.4
Dak Prescott	7	24	3.4	1	4.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dalton Schultz	7	8	95	2	25%	9.1
CeeDee Lamb	4	6	68	1	19%	7.4
Michael Gallup	5	6	46	1	19%	5.0
Jake Ferguson	1	1	34	0	3%	2.4
T.Y. Hilton	2	4	23	0	13%	0.6
Noah Brown	2	2	18	0	6%	2.9
Tony Pollard	3	3	12	0	9%	-0.0
Ezekiel Elliott	1	2	9	0	6%	0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Leighton Vander Esch	5	4	0.0	0	2
Daron Bland	3	4	0.0	0	0
Malik Hooker	5	1	0.0	0	0
Donovan Wilson	4	2	0.0	0	2
Anthony Barr	3	1	0.0	0	0
Israel Mukuamu	4	0	0.0	0	2
Micah Parsons	3	0	1.0	0	2
Xavier Rhodes	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jayron Kearse	2	1	0.0	1	3
Trevon Diggs	1	1	0.0	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	35/66	351	2	1	2	-3.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rachaad White	7	41	5.9	0	1.6
Leonard Fournette	5	11	2.2	0	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Godwin	10	13	85	0	21%	1.8
Julio Jones	7	11	74	1	18%	3.3
Mike Evans	6	11	74	0	18%	3.9
Cade Otton	4	7	58	0	11%	2.4
Rachaad White	4	6	36	0	10%	2.9
Russell Gage	2	8	10	0	13%	-10.1
Cameron Brate	1	3	8	1	5%	0.6
Leonard Fournette	1	1	6	0	2%	0.6
Ko Kieft	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Lavonte David	9	5	0
Mike Edwards	6	4	1
Sean Murphy-Bunting	4	2	0
Devin White	2	3	0
Antoine Winfield	2	3	0
Carlton Davis	3	1	0
Anthony Nelson	3	0	0
Logan Ryan	2	0	0
Joe Tryon	1	1	0
William Gholston	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -2.5
Closing total: 45.5
DAL moneyline: -135
TB moneyline: +122

Cowboys closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 45 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 58°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: DAL 8 days · TB 8 days
Coaches: Mike McCarthy vs Todd Bowles