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2022 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 14, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Los Angeles Chargers

30

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

31

LAC -2 upsetO 46.5 ✓

Jacksonville Jaguars 31–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, JAX +31% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAX ↑LAC ↓
Q4 · 0:03LAC 30 — JAX 31JAX ball · 2nd & 12JAX 69%

(:03) 10-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. Penalty on LAC-26-A.Samuel, Defensive Offside, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:03JAX +31% win prob(:03) 10-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. Penalty on LAC-26-A.Samuel, Defensive Offside, declined.
  2. Q4 · 1:28JAX +29% win prob(1:28) 1-T.Etienne right end to LAC 16 for 25 yards (49-D.Tranquill).
  3. Q1 · 14:23LAC +15% win prob(14:23) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Tranquill (69-S.Joseph) at JAX 33. 49-D.Tranquill to JAX 18 for 15 yards (11-M.Jones; 72-W.Little).
  4. Q4 · 1:30LAC +9% win prob(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 13-C.Kirk.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 13:40LAC Touchdown

    (13:40) 30-A.Ekeler right guard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 7 — JAX 0
  2. Q1 · 5:33LAC Field goal

    (5:33) 15-C.Dicker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 10 — JAX 0
  3. Q1 · 0:49LAC Touchdown

    (:49) 30-A.Ekeler left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 17 — JAX 0
  4. Q2 · 7:17LAC Touchdown

    (7:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 7-G.Everett for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 24 — JAX 0
  5. Q2 · 4:28LAC Field goal

    (4:28) 15-C.Dicker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 27 — JAX 0
  6. Q2 · 0:28JAX Touchdown

    (:28) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 17-E.Engram for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 27 — JAX 7
  7. Q3 · 5:16JAX Touchdown

    (5:16) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-M.Jones for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 27 — JAX 14
  8. Q3 · 3:02LAC Field goal

    (3:02) 15-C.Dicker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 30 — JAX 14
  9. Q3 · 0:50JAX Touchdown

    (:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 7-Z.Jones for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: LAC 30 — JAX 20
  10. Q4 · 5:30JAX Touchdown

    (5:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LAC-97-J.Bosa, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 1 yard, enforced between downs. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: LAC 30 — JAX 28
  11. Q4 · 0:03JAX Field goal

    (:03) 10-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. Penalty on LAC-26-A.Samuel, Defensive Offside, declined.

    Score after this play: LAC 30 — JAX 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChargersJaguars
Offensive plays6871
Total yards321392 (edge)
Yards per play4.75.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.07 (edge)-0.01
Success rate40%51% (edge)
Dropback rate69%70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.20 (edge)-0.12
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.220.23 (edge)
Third downs8/17 (edge)2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps1724 (edge)
Sacks taken32 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)4

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

28/47, 288 yds, 4 TD, 4 INT

-6.0 expected points added · -6.8% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

25/43, 273 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.6 expected points added · -7.9% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

20 att, 109 yds, 0 TD

3.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

13 att, 35 yds, 2 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Gerald EverettTE

6/8 for 109 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 11.1 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Evan EngramTE

7/11 for 93 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 0.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 24340:47Interception
2LACJAX 183180:40Touchdown +7
3JAXJAX 2510423:31Interception
4LACLAC 3912574:32Field goal +3
5JAXJAX 25510:57Punt
6LACLAC 42451:35Punt
7JAXJAX 14350:56Interception
8LACJAX 164161:18Touchdown +7
9JAXJAX 15512:08Punt
10LACLAC 3812676:24Touchdown +7
11JAX50400:21Interception
12LACLAC 32481:37Punt
13LACJAX 6410:49Field goal +3
14JAXJAX 28581:14Punt
15LACLAC 18491:22Punt
16JAXLAC 478471:25Touchdown +7
17LACLAC 15200:24End of half
18LACLAC 259372:32Punt
19JAXJAX 1115897:17Touchdown +7
20LACLAC 238452:13Field goal +3
21JAXJAX 326682:14Touchdown +6
22LACLAC 2015536:57Missed field goal
23JAXJAX 3010663:22Touchdown +8
24LACLAC 25552:16Punt
25JAXJAX 2110613:09Field goal +3

11 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 89 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert25/432731037.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Austin Ekeler13352.72-0.9
Joshua Kelley7202.90-1.7
Justin Herbert3124.00-0.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Gerald Everett68109119%11.1
Keenan Allen61361031%1.5
Josh Palmer2631014%-0.6
Donald Parham4523012%0.1
DeAndre Carter231707%0.4
Tre' McKitty221605%0.8
Austin Ekeler248010%-3.3
Joshua Kelley11802%0.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Derwin James630.000
Kenneth Murray260.500
Bryce Callahan420.001
Alohi Gilman230.001
Michael Davis400.002
Sebastian Joseph120.501
Drue Tranquill300.011
Breiden Fehoko210.000
Asante Samuel300.036
Ja'Sir Taylor300.000

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence28/47288442-6.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne201095.503.7
Trevor Lawrence188.001.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Evan Engram71193124%0.2
Christian Kirk81478130%-3.5
Zay Jones81374128%-3.9
Marvin Jones3629113%4.2
Travis Etienne111202%0.7
Jamal Agnew11202%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foyesade Oluokun850.000
Josh Hines-Allen351.000
Rayshawn Jenkins340.001
Roy Robertson-Harris321.002
Andre Cisco400.001
Tyson Campbell310.000
Devin Lloyd310.001
Davon Hamilton030.001
Evan Engram200.000
Travon Walker020.500

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LAC -2
Closing total
46.5
LAC moneyline
-126
JAX moneyline
+114

Chargers closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 61 — over by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
37°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
LAC 6 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches
Brandon Staley vs Doug Pederson