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2022 Divisional Round · Sat, Jan 21, 2023 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

20

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

27

KC -10 no coverU 52.5 ✓

Kansas City Chiefs 27–20. Biggest swing: Q4 5:36, JAX +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3KC ↑JAX ↓
Q4 · 5:36JAX 17 — KC 27JAX ball · 1st & 9KC 90%

(5:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 39-J.Agnew to KC 6 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by KC-32-N.Bolton at KC 3. KC-38-L.Sneed was injured during the play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 5:36JAX +6% win prob(5:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 39-J.Agnew to KC 6 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by KC-32-N.Bolton at KC 3. KC-38-L.Sneed was injured during the play.
  2. Q4 · 13:04KC +5% win prob(13:04) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones pushed ob at KC 22 for 37 yards (35-Ja.Watson). Penalty on KC-21-T.McDuffie, Defensive Holding, declined.
  3. Q4 · 11:03KC +4% win prob(11:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to JAX 49 for 15 yards (49-A.Key).
  4. Q3 · 12:15JAX +4% win prob(12:15) 5-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to JAX 6, Center-41-J.Winchester. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 15 for 9 yards (47-D.Harris).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:02KC Touchdown

    (8:02) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 0 — KC 7
  2. Q1 · 5:08JAX Touchdown

    (5:08) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — KC 7
  3. Q2 · 14:13KC Field goal

    (14:13) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — KC 10
  4. Q2 · 3:58KC Touchdown

    (3:58) (Shotgun) 4-C.Henne pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — KC 17
  5. Q2 · 0:31JAX Field goal

    (:31) 10-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 10 — KC 17
  6. Q3 · 0:12KC Field goal

    (:12) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: JAX 10 — KC 20
  7. Q4 · 11:53JAX Touchdown

    (11:53) 1-T.Etienne right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 17 — KC 20
  8. Q4 · 7:13KC Touchdown

    (7:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-D.Hamilton]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 17 — KC 27
  9. Q4 · 0:30JAX Field goal

    (:30) 10-R.Patterson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 20 — KC 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsChiefs
Offensive plays5965
Total yards349364 (edge)
Yards per play5.9 (edge)5.6
Expected points added / play0.070.21 (edge)
Success rate53% (edge)52%
Dropback rate71%60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.020.35 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.30 (edge)0.01
Third downs7/13 (edge)6/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps2021 (edge)
Sacks taken20 (edge)
Turnovers20 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

24/39, 217 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

0.1 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

22/30, 195 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.7 expected points added · +9.8% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

12 att, 95 yds, 0 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

10 att, 62 yds, 1 TD

2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

14/17 for 98 yds, 2 TD

49% of team targets · 7.6 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Zay JonesWR

5/7 for 83 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 25561:04Punt
2KCKC 1713836:00Touchdown +7
3JAXKC 397392:52Touchdown +7
4KCKC 2512385:55Field goal +3
5JAXJAX 259464:10Punt
6KCKC 213836:05Touchdown +7
7JAXJAX 2512523:27Field goal +3
8KCKC 25200:27End of half
9KCKC 258132:58Punt
10JAXJAX 158253:36Punt
11KCKC 20492:18Punt
12JAXJAX 117113:43Punt
13KCKC 395392:17Field goal +3
14JAXJAX 259803:19Touchdown +7
15KCKC 2512704:41Touchdown +7
16JAXJAX 459491:39Fumble
17KCKC 3491:11Punt
18JAXJAX 46240:30Interception
19KCKC 166202:44Punt
20JAXJAX 336370:39Field goal +3
21KCJAX 46200:25End of game

9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 83 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence24/392171120.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne10626.212.8
Jamycal Hasty4369.001.3
Trevor Lawrence3268.703.5
Christian Kirk11818.001.4
Jamal Agnew122.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Zay Jones5783018%2.4
Christian Kirk71452137%-0.5
Evan Engram5631016%1.6
Marvin Jones132108%0.3
Travis Etienne331808%2.2
Jamycal Hasty12705%-0.8
Jamal Agnew23508%-6.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foyesade Oluokun3100.000
Devin Lloyd250.000
Roy Robertson-Harris250.000
Rayshawn Jenkins520.000
Davon Hamilton320.001
Tre Herndon400.000
Josh Hines-Allen120.000
Andre Cisco210.000
Corey Peters120.000
Darious Williams210.001

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes22/301952009.7
Chad Henne5/7231002.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isiah Pacheco12957.903.0
Jerick McKinnon11252.30-2.4
Kadarius Toney11414.001.3
Patrick Mahomes382.70-0.2
Skyy Moore133.00-0.1
Noah Gray100.00-1.6
Chad Henne1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Travis Kelce141798249%7.6
Kadarius Toney5736020%1.6
JuJu Smith-Schuster222906%2.1
Noah Gray122706%1.0
Justin Watson111203%1.9
Isiah Pacheco11603%0.8
Marquez Valdes-Scantling12616%1.3
Blake Bell12406%-0.9
Skyy Moore11003%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nick Bolton640.000
L'Jarius Sneed630.000
Justin Reid510.000
Juan Thornhill320.002
Trent McDuffie310.001
Jaylen Watson400.012
Frank Clark301.000
Noah Gray110.000
Darius Harris200.000
Derrick Nnadi111.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -10
Closing total
52.5
JAX moneyline
+377
KC moneyline
-461

Chiefs closed -10, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 52.5; the game landed 47 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
36°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
JAX 7 days · KC 14 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Andy Reid