2023 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 10, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium

San Francisco 49ersWinner

Pittsburgh Steelers

SF -1.5 ✓U 41.5 ✓49ers closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 23.

San Francisco 49ers 30–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:02, SF +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 14:02SF 0 — PIT 0PIT ball · 3rd & 5SF 58%

(14:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett sacked at PIT 20 for -10 yards (95-D.Jackson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 14:02SF +8% win prob(14:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett sacked at PIT 20 for -10 yards (95-D.Jackson).
Q1 · 11:34PIT +6% win prob(11:34) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to PIT 34 for 11 yards (50-E.Roberts; 20-P.Peterson).
Q2 · 13:36PIT +5% win prob(13:36) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 11-B.Aiyuk for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 7:20PIT +5% win prob(7:20) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk to PIT 26 for 23 yards (31-K.Neal; 39-M.Fitzpatrick).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:34SF Touchdown
(9:34) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 7 — PIT 0
Q1 · 4:41SF Field goal
(4:41) 4-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: SF 10 — PIT 0
Q2 · 13:36SF Touchdown
(13:36) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 11-B.Aiyuk for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 17 — PIT 0
Q2 · 8:26SF Field goal
(8:26) 4-J.Moody 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: SF 20 — PIT 0
Q2 · 0:13PIT Touchdown
(:13) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 20 — PIT 7
Q3 · 14:15SF Touchdown
(14:15) 23-C.McCaffrey left tackle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 27 — PIT 7
Q4 · 5:34SF Field goal
(5:34) 4-J.Moody 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: SF 30 — PIT 7

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Steelers
Offensive plays	63	60
Total yards	394 (edge)	239
Yards per play	6.3 (edge)	4.0
Expected points added / play	0.16 (edge)	-0.34
Success rate	43% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	54%	85%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.27 (edge)	-0.39
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.09
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	5/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.34.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Kenny PickettQB

31/46, 232 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-20.1 expected points added · +2.1% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

19/29, 220 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.5 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

22 att, 152 yds, 1 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

6 att, 31 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

8/8 for 129 yds, 2 TD

29% of team targets · 17.7 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Allen RobinsonWR

5/8 for 64 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 0.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	5	-5	1:45	Punt
2	SF	SF 46	8	54	3:46	Touchdown +7
3	PIT	PIT 27	4	5	1:29	Interception
4	SF	PIT 48	6	30	3:22	Field goal +3
5	PIT	PIT 32	5	2	1:33	Punt
6	SF	SF 32	10	73	4:35	Touchdown +7
7	PIT	PIT 25	5	-5	1:13	Punt
8	SF	50	7	27	3:55	Field goal +3
9	PIT	PIT 36	5	4	1:29	Punt
10	SF	SF 24	12	39	5:18	Punt
11	PIT	PIT 5	13	76	1:25	Touchdown +7
12	SF	SF 25	2	0	0:10	End of half
13	SF	SF 25	4	75	0:58	Touchdown +7
14	PIT	PIT 25	6	30	2:02	Punt
15	SF	SF 17	8	28	5:06	Punt
16	PIT	PIT 6	4	6	1:12	Punt
17	SF	PIT 38	1	-8	0:07	Fumble
18	PIT	SF 39	8	20	3:33	Turnover on downs
19	SF	SF 8	8	47	4:18	Punt
20	PIT	PIT 4	7	48	2:36	Interception
21	SF	SF 49	9	29	4:38	Field goal +3
22	PIT	PIT 25	13	58	4:20	Turnover on downs
23	SF	SF 32	2	0	1:10	End of game

7 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 76 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	19/29	220	2	0	3	6.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	22	152	6.9	1	3.2
Brock Purdy	3	20	6.7	0	2.5
Elijah Mitchell	5	10	2.0	0	-2.0
Deebo Samuel	2	8	4.0	0	-0.1
Sam Darnold	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandon Aiyuk	8	8	129	2	29%	17.7
Deebo Samuel	5	7	55	0	25%	1.4
George Kittle	3	6	19	0	21%	0.5
Christian McCaffrey	3	5	17	0	18%	-0.8
Elijah Mitchell	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.8
Jauan Jennings	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Deommodore Lenoir	8	2	0.0	0	0
Fred Warner	5	3	0.0	0	1
Dre Greenlaw	2	3	0.0	0	0
Ambry Thomas	4	1	0.0	0	1
Talanoa Hufanga	4	0	0.0	1	1
Isaiah Oliver	1	3	0.0	0	0
Drake Jackson	3	0	3.0	0	0
Javon Hargrave	2	1	1.0	0	0
Charvarius Ward	1	1	0.0	1	1
Nick Bosa	1	1	0.0	0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kenny Pickett	31/46	232	1	2	5	-20.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Najee Harris	6	31	5.2	0.7
Jaylen Warren	3	6	2.0	-1.5
Kenny Pickett	1	4	4.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Robinson	5	8	64	0	18%	0.4
Diontae Johnson	3	6	48	0	13%	-2.6
Calvin Austin	6	6	37	0	13%	-0.2
George Pickens	5	7	36	0	16%	0.1
Connor Heyward	2	4	19	0	9%	-4.4
Jaylen Warren	5	6	12	0	13%	-3.1
Anthony McFarland	2	2	11	0	4%	1.2
Pat Freiermuth	1	4	3	1	9%	-2.1
Najee Harris	2	2	2	0	4%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Alex Highsmith	3	3	0.0	0
Kwon Alexander	5	1	0.0	0
Elandon Roberts	4	2	0.0	0
Cole Holcomb	2	3	0.0	0
Keanu Neal	2	3	0.0	0
T.J. Watt	4	0	3.0	1
Damontae Kazee	3	1	0.0	0
Levi Wallace	2	1	0.0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	2	1	0.0	0
Keeanu Benton	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -1.5
Closing total: 41.5
SF moneyline: -120
PIT moneyline: +100

49ers closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 23.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 37 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: SF 7 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Mike Tomlin