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2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Los Angeles RamsWinner

29

Indianapolis Colts

23

LA -1 ✓O 44.5 ✓

Los Angeles Rams 29–23. Biggest swing: Q4 1:19, LA +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4IND ↑LA ↓
Q4 · 1:19LA 23 — IND 23IND ball · 4th & 10IND 52%

(1:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to LA 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-A.Trammell to LA 28 for 8 yards (43-T.Denbow).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 1:19LA +15% win prob(1:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to LA 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-A.Trammell to LA 28 for 8 yards (43-T.Denbow).
  2. Q1 · 13:51IND +13% win prob(13:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles right end to IND 44 for 6 yards (32-J.Blackmon). PENALTY on IND-45-E.Speed, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at IND 44.
  3. OT · 5:55IND +13% win prob(5:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-P.Nacua for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. OT · 8:34IND +13% win prob(8:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams to IND 40 for 13 yards (32-J.Blackmon) [51-K.Paye].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:38LA Touchdown

    (11:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 7 — IND 0
  2. Q1 · 3:43LA Touchdown

    (3:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 14 — IND 0
  3. Q2 · 12:56LA Field goal

    (12:56) 8-B.Maher 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 17 — IND 0
  4. Q2 · 5:53LA Field goal

    (5:53) 8-B.Maher 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 20 — IND 0
  5. Q3 · 7:22LA Field goal

    (7:22) 8-B.Maher 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 23 — IND 0
  6. Q3 · 5:37IND Touchdown

    (5:37) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep right to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-44-A.Witherspoon, Defensive Holding, declined. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: LA 23 — IND 8
  7. Q4 · 11:49IND Touchdown

    (11:49) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 23 — IND 15
  8. Q4 · 2:00IND Touchdown

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short right to 85-A.Ogletree for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: LA 23 — IND 23
  9. OT · 5:55LA Touchdown

    (5:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-P.Nacua for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: LA 29 — IND 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRamsColts
Offensive plays7859
Total yards467 (edge)334
Yards per play6.0 (edge)5.7
Expected points added / play0.18 (edge)0.02
Success rate46% (edge)41%
Dropback rate56%54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.33 (edge)0.28
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.03 (edge)-0.28
Third downs6/15 (edge)3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)88
First downs gained on snaps24 (edge)19
Sacks taken22
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

27/40, 319 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

11.4 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Anthony RichardsonQB

11/25, 200 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.2 expected points added · -16.4% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

25 att, 103 yds, 2 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Zack MossRB

18 att, 70 yds, 0 TD

-2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Puka NacuaWR

9/10 for 163 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 14.2 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Tyler HigbeeTE

5/11 for 64 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 1.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LALA 2511603:25Touchdown +7
2INDIND 258143:17Punt
3LALA 611794:38Touchdown +7
4INDIND 254351:08Fumble
5LALA 407484:40Field goal +3
6INDIND 25511:35Punt
7LALA 1410505:29Field goal +3
8INDIND 2511604:03Missed field goal
9LALA 376351:45Missed field goal
10INDIND 256-12:18Punt
11LALA 309485:25Field goal +3
12INDIND 256771:51Touchdown +8
13LALA 25300:09Interception
14INDLA 42661:41Fumble
15LALA 318304:20Missed field goal
16INDIND 387572:31Touchdown +7
17LALA 258184:16Punt
18INDIND 1714855:33Touchdown +8
19LALA 25550:24Punt
20INDIND 35400:23Punt
21LALA 286191:04Punt
22INDIND 18100:05Turnover on downs
23LALA 259754:11Touchdown +6

9 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 85 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matthew Stafford27/4031911211.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kyren Williams251034.12-0.7
Ronnie Rivers9475.20-0.3
Matthew Stafford2147.003.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Puka Nacua910163126%14.2
Tyler Higbee51164028%1.3
Van Jefferson232908%3.8
Kyren Williams332408%0.7
Tutu Atwell5924023%-4.3
Ronnie Rivers221005%-0.2
Brycen Hopkins11503%0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ernest Jones261.000
Michael Hoecht140.001
Christian Rozeboom410.000
Bobby Brown140.000
Cobie Durant310.000
Aaron Donald221.000
Jordan Fuller120.000
Russ Yeast210.001
Derion Kendrick200.000
Tutu Atwell100.000

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Anthony Richardson11/252002027.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Zack Moss18703.90-2.7
Anthony Richardson10565.61-2.4
Trey Sermon372.30-0.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Andrew Ogletree3448117%5.4
Alec Pierce123808%2.9
Mo Alie-Cox113514%3.2
Josh Downs2334013%1.1
Kylen Granson2524021%0.6
Michael Pittman1515021%-0.8
Isaiah McKenzie136013%-1.2
Zack Moss01004%0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Zaire Franklin750.500
Julius Brents810.000
Julian Blackmon620.000
Dayo Odeyingbo521.501
Kenny Moore430.012
Dallis Flowers310.002
Samson Ebukam220.000
Shaquille Leonard300.000
E.J. Speed120.001
Rodney Thomas210.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LA -1
Closing total
44.5
LA moneyline
-115
IND moneyline
-105

Rams closed -1 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 52 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
LA 6 days · IND 7 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Shane Steichen