For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2023 Week 7 · Thu, Oct 19, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

31

New Orleans Saints

24

NO -2.5 upsetO 41 ✓Dome

Jacksonville Jaguars 31–24. Biggest swing: Q4 3:19, NO +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NO ↑JAX ↓
Q4 · 3:19JAX 30 — NO 24JAX ball · 2nd & 8JAX 59%

(3:19) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 3:19NO +25% win prob(3:19) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 0:25JAX +17% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 12-C.Olave (30-M.Brown).
  3. Q1 · 3:44NO +13% win prob(3:44) 39-L.Hedley punts 40 yards to JAX 15, Center-49-Z.Wood. 29-T.Campbell MUFFS catch, touched at JAX 19, RECOVERED by NO-28-L.Johnson at JAX 17. JAX-39-J.Agnew was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
  4. Q3 · 7:00JAX +12% win prob(7:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 23-F.Oluokun (31-Dari.Williams) at NO 24. 23-F.Oluokun for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:48JAX Touchdown

    (9:48) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — NO 0
  2. Q1 · 1:29NO Field goal

    (1:29) 19-B.Grupe 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — NO 3
  3. Q2 · 13:17JAX Touchdown

    (13:17) 1-T.Etienne left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 14 — NO 3
  4. Q2 · 2:00NO Field goal

    (2:00) 19-B.Grupe 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

    Score after this play: JAX 14 — NO 6
  5. Q2 · 0:36JAX Field goal

    (:36) 10-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 17 — NO 6
  6. Q3 · 9:53NO Field goal

    (9:53) 19-B.Grupe 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

    Score after this play: JAX 17 — NO 9
  7. Q3 · 7:00JAX Touchdown

    (7:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 23-F.Oluokun (31-Dari.Williams) at NO 24. 23-F.Oluokun for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 24 — NO 9
  8. Q4 · 14:24NO Touchdown

    (14:24) (Shotgun) 64-N.Saldiveri, 70-T.Penning and 99-K.Saunders reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 24 — NO 16
  9. Q4 · 6:42NO Touchdown

    (6:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 13-M.Thomas for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: JAX 24 — NO 24
  10. Q4 · 3:19JAX Touchdown

    (3:19) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 31 — NO 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsSaints
Offensive plays5388
Total yards334409 (edge)
Yards per play6.3 (edge)4.6
Expected points added / play-0.04 (edge)-0.13
Success rate42% (edge)38%
Dropback rate66%68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.15 (edge)-0.27
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.420.18 (edge)
Third downs2/10 (edge)3/18
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps1724 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)1
Turnovers11

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Derek CarrQB

33/55, 301 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-15.8 expected points added · -7.4% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

20/29, 204 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.6 expected points added · -3.8% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

17 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

8 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

4.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

12/14 for 91 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Christian KirkWR

6/6 for 90 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 2512755:16Touchdown +7
2NONO 2512434:28Missed field goal
3JAXJAX 411190:14Fumble
4NONO 41441:26Punt
5NOJAX 176122:10Field goal +3
6JAXJAX 259703:17Touchdown +7
7NONO 257312:26Turnover on downs
8JAXJAX 45400:56Punt
9NONO 136262:30Punt
10JAXJAX 18471:36Punt
11NOJAX 468293:44Field goal +3
12JAXJAX 2511551:25Field goal +3
13NONO 252-60:32End of half
14NONO 2512625:11Field goal +3
15JAXJAX 255142:10Punt
16NONO 13300:52Defensive touchdown
17NONO 2518737:26Touchdown +7
18JAXJAX 256142:52Punt
19NONO 7451:02Punt
20JAXJAX 26682:58Turnover on downs
21NONO 474550:51Touchdown +8
22JAXJAX 257262:08Punt
23NONO 10460:45Punt
24JAXNO 463460:37Touchdown +7
25NONO 2513692:47Turnover on downs
26JAXJAX 7300:21End of game

9 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 75 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence20/292041004.6
Logan Cooke1/1130002.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Trevor Lawrence8597.404.1
Travis Etienne14533.82-4.8
Tank Bigsby221.00-1.2
Calvin Ridley100.00-0.6
Jamal Agnew1-1-1.00-0.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Christian Kirk6690120%3.2
Evan Engram5745023%0.1
Jamal Agnew4636020%-0.9
Travis Etienne3524017%-0.5
Tim Jones221707%2.3
Calvin Ridley145013%-3.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foyesade Oluokun850.012
Devin Lloyd560.001
Rayshawn Jenkins360.000
Tre Herndon420.002
Angelo Blackson510.000
Andrew Wingard410.000
Darious Williams410.002
Montaric Brown310.002
Josh Hines-Allen110.000
Andre Cisco110.000

New Orleans Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Derek Carr33/55301111-15.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Alvin Kamara17623.603.2
Taysom Hill5183.613.6
Derek Carr3144.70-0.4
Jamaal Williams5142.80-1.6
Rashid Shaheed144.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Alvin Kamara121491026%5.4
Chris Olave71557028%-10.0
Taysom Hill455009%1.7
Michael Thomas3742113%-1.1
Foster Moreau343308%-0.3
Rashid Shaheed4828015%-10.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Paulson Adebo520.002
Carl Granderson510.000
Alontae Taylor410.000
Malcolm Roach310.000
Pete Werner400.000
Zack Baun210.000
Tyrann Mathieu300.000
Demario Davis210.000
Cameron Jordan020.001
Marshon Lattimore110.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NO -2.5
Closing total
41
JAX moneyline
+124
NO moneyline
-148

Saints closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41; the game landed 55 — over by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
JAX 4 days · NO 4 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Dennis Allen