2023 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 3, 2023 · FedExField

Miami DolphinsWinner

Washington Commanders

MIA -8.5 ✓O 50 ✓Dolphins closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 30.

Miami Dolphins 45–15 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:37, WAS +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 9:37MIA 6 — WAS 0MIA ball · 3rd & 2MIA 78%

(9:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 9:37WAS +13% win prob(9:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:19WAS +8% win prob(14:19) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 1-J.Dotson ran ob at WAS 39 for 12 yards. Miami challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
Q1 · 15:00MIA +5% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson up the middle to WAS 27 for 2 yards (51-D.Long, 92-Z.Sieler).
Q1 · 1:01MIA +5% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right intended for 1-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel at WAS 33. 43-A.Van Ginkel for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:37MIA Touchdown
(9:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 7 — WAS 0
Q1 · 3:43MIA Field goal
(3:43) 7-J.Sanders 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: MIA 10 — WAS 0
Q1 · 1:01MIA Touchdown
(1:01) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right intended for 1-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel at WAS 33. 43-A.Van Ginkel for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 17 — WAS 0
Q2 · 11:20WAS Touchdown
(11:20) 14-S.Howell up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 17 — WAS 7
Q2 · 9:22MIA Touchdown
(9:22) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 24 — WAS 7
Q2 · 0:24MIA Touchdown
(:24) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 31 — WAS 7
Q3 · 9:41MIA Touchdown
(9:41) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 38 — WAS 7
Q3 · 4:39WAS Touchdown
(4:39) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell scrambles up the middle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: MIA 38 — WAS 15
Q4 · 2:00MIA Touchdown
(2:00) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 45 — WAS 15

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Commanders
Offensive plays	59	55
Total yards	406 (edge)	247
Yards per play	6.9 (edge)	4.5
Expected points added / play	0.41 (edge)	-0.18
Success rate	51% (edge)	29%
Dropback rate	42%	55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.74 (edge)	-0.32
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.16 (edge)	-0.01
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	6/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

18/24, 280 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

19.7 expected points added · +8.5% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Sam HowellQB

12/23, 127 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-13.0 expected points added · -8.2% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Devon AchaneRB

17 att, 73 yds, 2 TD

5.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

7 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

5/7 for 157 yds, 2 TD

28% of team targets · 14.5 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Curtis SamuelWR

4/5 for 65 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 25	10	30	4:04	Punt
2	MIA	MIA 14	4	86	1:28	Touchdown +7
3	WAS	WAS 25	5	-4	1:34	Punt
4	MIA	MIA 30	8	39	4:15	Field goal +3
5	WAS	WAS 25	5	7	1:27	Punt
6	MIA	MIA 19	4	-13	1:11	Punt
7	WAS	WAS 38	1	0	0:06	Defensive touchdown
8	WAS	WAS 25	12	75	4:37	Touchdown +7
9	MIA	MIA 25	7	75	2:04	Touchdown +7
10	WAS	WAS 25	8	19	3:19	Punt
11	MIA	MIA 24	12	60	5:35	Touchdown +7
12	WAS	WAS 25	3	3	0:20	End of half
13	MIA	MIA 25	11	75	5:24	Touchdown +7
14	WAS	WAS 25	11	77	5:05	Touchdown +8
15	MIA	MIA 25	5	8	1:37	Punt
16	WAS	WAS 41	7	24	3:39	Missed field goal
17	MIA	MIA 43	6	17	2:52	Punt
18	WAS	WAS 6	4	7	1:36	Punt
19	MIA	MIA 41	14	59	7:50	Touchdown +7
20	WAS	WAS 25	4	9	1:57	End of game

8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 86 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	18/24	280	2	0	0	19.7
Mike White	1/1	3	0	0	0	-1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devon Achane	17	73	4.3	2	5.1
Raheem Mostert	11	43	3.9	1	1.4
Jeffery Wilson	4	11	2.8	0	0.3
Tyreek Hill	2	-4	-2.0	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	5	7	157	2	28%	14.5
Jaylen Waddle	5	8	52	0	32%	3.1
Devon Achane	3	4	30	0	16%	0.2
Julian Hill	2	2	23	0	8%	2.2
River Cracraft	2	2	16	0	8%	0.3
Raheem Mostert	1	1	8	0	4%	-0.3
Alec Ingold	1	1	-3	0	4%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Duke Riley	3	5	0.0	0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	4	1	0.0	1	2
David Long Jr.	2	3	0.0	0	0
Zach Sieler	1	3	1.5	0	0
Jerome Baker	3	1	0.0	0	0
Bradley Chubb	0	4	0.5	0	0
Brandon Jones	3	1	0.0	0	0
Kader Kohou	1	2	0.0	0	0
DeShon Elliott	0	2	0.0	0	1
Channing Tindall	1	1	0.0	0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Howell	12/23	127	0	1	3	-13.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Brian Robinson	7	53	7.6	0	2.3
Antonio Gibson	10	35	3.5	0	-2.2
Chris Rodriguez	7	29	4.1	0	-1.5
Sam Howell	4	21	5.3	2	4.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Curtis Samuel	4	5	65	23%	5.0
Antonio Gibson	4	5	37	23%	-0.1
Jahan Dotson	2	5	23	23%	-6.3
Cole Turner	1	1	2	5%	-1.5
Logan Thomas	0	1	0	5%	0.3
Terry McLaurin	0	3	0	14%	-2.8
Dyami Brown	1	1	0	5%	-0.4
John Bates	0	1	0	5%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Cody Barton	4	6	0
Jamin Davis	5	3	1
Quan Martin	5	2	0
Kendall Fuller	5	1	0
Percy Butler	2	2	1
Kamren Curl	4	0	0
Daron Payne	2	1	0
Terrell Burgess	2	1	0
Khaleke Hudson	1	1	0
Casey Toohill	1	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -8.5
Closing total: 50
MIA moneyline: -455
WAS moneyline: +350

Dolphins closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 30.

Total closed 50; the game landed 60 — over by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 53°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Tra Blake
Rest: MIA 9 days · WAS 10 days
Coaches: Mike McDaniel vs Ron Rivera