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2023 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 17, 2023 · New Era Field

Dallas Cowboys

10

Buffalo BillsWinner

31

BUF -2 ✓U 49.5 ✓

Buffalo Bills 31–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 0:25, BUF +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BUF ↑DAL ↓
Q1 · 0:25DAL 0 — BUF 7BUF ball · 4th & 8BUF 68%

(:25) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to DAL 28, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 24 for -4 yards (25-T.Dodson). PENALTY on DAL-54-S.Williams, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 26 - No Play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 0:25BUF +8% win prob(:25) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to DAL 28, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 24 for -4 yards (25-T.Dodson). PENALTY on DAL-54-S.Williams, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 26 - No Play.
  2. Q1 · 9:00BUF +5% win prob(9:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 14-S.Diggs. PENALTY on DAL-90-D.Lawrence, Roughing the Passer, 3 yards, enforced at DAL 6 - No Play.
  3. Q1 · 0:11BUF +4% win prob(:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook pushed ob at DAL 35 for 24 yards (33-D.Clark; 21-S.Gilmore).
  4. Q1 · 7:25BUF +4% win prob(7:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles right end to DAL 42 for 13 yards (20-T.Rapp). Penalty on BUF-20-T.Rapp, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on DAL-70-Z.Martin, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:18BUF Touchdown

    (8:18) 28-L.Murray left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 0 — BUF 7
  2. Q2 · 12:57BUF Touchdown

    (12:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 4-J.Cook for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 0 — BUF 14
  3. Q2 · 7:16DAL Field goal

    (7:16) 17-B.Aubrey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: DAL 3 — BUF 14
  4. Q2 · 1:39BUF Touchdown

    (1:39) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 3 — BUF 21
  5. Q3 · 2:39BUF Field goal

    (2:39) 2-T.Bass 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: DAL 3 — BUF 24
  6. Q4 · 12:36BUF Touchdown

    (12:36) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right guard for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 3 — BUF 31
  7. Q4 · 2:53DAL Touchdown

    (2:53) (No Huddle) 88-C.Lamb right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 10 — BUF 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCowboysBills
Offensive plays5762
Total yards195354 (edge)
Yards per play3.45.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.090.19 (edge)
Success rate44%53% (edge)
Dropback rate72%31%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.160.06 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.070.24 (edge)
Third downs5/135/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)29 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1325 (edge)
Sacks taken31 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

21/34, 134 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-12.4 expected points added · -4.1% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

7/15, 94 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-0.5 expected points added · -10.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

25 att, 179 yds, 1 TD

8.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Ty JohnsonRB

9 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

CeeDee LambWR

7/10 for 53 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 1.7 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

4/5 for 48 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 3.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BUFBUF 2514726:54Touchdown +7
2DALDAL 2510294:05Punt
3BUFBUF 13470:57Punt
4DALDAL 34400:28Punt
5BUFBUF 1412714:44Touchdown +7
6DALDAL 2512465:39Field goal +3
7BUFBUF 2413615:37Touchdown +7
8DALDAL 257141:17Punt
9BUFBUF 5100:19End of half
10DALDAL 188114:02Punt
11BUFBUF 3015658:22Field goal +3
12DALDAL 245-82:01Punt
13BUFBUF 337623:05Touchdown +7
14DALDAL 258231:53Interception
15BUFBUF 48432:19Punt
16DALDAL 2016805:30Touchdown +7
17BUFBUF 145132:48End of game

7 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 80 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Dak Prescott21/34134013-12.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tony Pollard11524.700.6
Dak Prescott4276.805.9
Rico Dowdle341.30-1.6
CeeDee Lamb133.011.6
Hunter Luepke133.000.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
CeeDee Lamb71053031%1.7
Jake Ferguson6844025%1.3
Brandin Cooks2610019%-4.2
Michael Gallup11903%0.8
Rico Dowdle23809%-1.5
Tony Pollard23509%-1.5
Peyton Hendershot11503%0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Damone Clark540.000
Donovan Wilson430.000
Demarcus Lawrence610.000
Juanyeh Thomas330.001
Stephon Gilmore230.001
Markquese Bell140.000
Rashaan Evans210.000
Chauncey Golston210.000
Israel Mukuamu110.000
Nahshon Wright110.000

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Allen7/1594101-0.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Cook251797.218.3
Ty Johnson9546.002.5
Josh Allen8243.013.4
Latavius Murray5112.21-2.3
Kyle Allen2-2-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Stefon Diggs4548038%3.3
James Cook2342123%2.5
Ty Johnson11408%-0.1
Gabe Davis01008%-0.8
Dalton Kincaid020015%-1.2
Khalil Shakir01008%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tyrel Dodson440.500
Taylor Rapp520.000
Taron Johnson600.001
Jordan Poyer420.001
Cameron Lewis500.001
Terrel Bernard220.000
Dorian Williams210.000
Rasul Douglas110.000
Gregory Rousseau110.500
Leonard Floyd101.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BUF -2
Closing total
49.5
DAL moneyline
+114
BUF moneyline
-135

Bills closed -2 and covered, winning by 21.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 41 — under by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
48°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
DAL 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Sean McDermott