2023 Week 16 · Mon, Dec 25, 2023 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

Kansas City Chiefs

KC -11 upsetU 40.5 ✓Chiefs closed -11 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Las Vegas Raiders 20–14. Biggest swing: Q2 5:00, LV +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 5:00LV 9 — KC 7KC ball · 1st & 10KC 84%

(5:00) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 10-I.Pacheco. 10-I.Pacheco FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 8, RECOVERED by LV-91-B.Nichols at KC 8. 91-B.Nichols for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 5:00LV +19% win prob(5:00) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 10-I.Pacheco. 10-I.Pacheco FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 8, RECOVERED by LV-91-B.Nichols at KC 8. 91-B.Nichols for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 4:55LV +19% win prob(4:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 84-Ju.Watson INTERCEPTED by 18-J.Jones at KC 33. 18-J.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 12:53KC +15% win prob(12:53) 5-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to LV 23, Center-41-J.Winchester. 3-D.Carter MUFFS catch, touched at LV 22, and recovers at LV 18.
Q3 · 9:32LV +9% win prob(9:32) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco left guard to KC 30 for no gain (39-N.Hobbs, 90-J.Tillery).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 1:21LV Field goal
(1:21) 2-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: LV 3 — KC 0
Q2 · 7:40KC Touchdown
(7:40) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 10-I.Pacheco. 10-I.Pacheco left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 3 — KC 7
Q2 · 5:00LV Touchdown
(5:00) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 10-I.Pacheco. 10-I.Pacheco FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 8, RECOVERED by LV-91-B.Nichols at KC 8. 91-B.Nichols for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: LV 9 — KC 7
Q2 · 4:55LV Touchdown
(4:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 84-Ju.Watson INTERCEPTED by 18-J.Jones at KC 33. 18-J.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: LV 15 — KC 7
Q2 · 4:48LV Two-point
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 34-B.Bolden rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Score after this play: LV 17 — KC 7
Q3 · 0:27LV Field goal
(:27) 2-D.Carlson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: LV 20 — KC 7
Q4 · 2:48KC Touchdown
(2:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 84-Ju.Watson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 20 — KC 14

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Chiefs
Offensive plays	50	74
Total yards	211	308 (edge)
Yards per play	4.2 (edge)	4.2
Expected points added / play	-0.18 (edge)	-0.25
Success rate	34%	41% (edge)
Dropback rate	46%	78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.56	-0.05 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15 (edge)	-0.96
Third downs	3/11	5/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Chiefs outgained Raiders 308–211 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

27/44, 235 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-14.3 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Aidan O'ConnellQB

9/21, 62 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-13.0 expected points added · -16.4% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Zamir WhiteRB

22 att, 145 yds, 0 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

10 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

7.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Rashee RiceWR

6/12 for 57 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · -4.6 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Richie JamesWR

3/3 for 54 yds, 0 TD

7% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 32	5	-11	2:20	Punt
2	LV	LV 18	4	-4	1:19	Punt
3	KC	LV 46	4	-2	1:19	Punt
4	LV	LV 7	15	82	8:44	Field goal +3
5	KC	KC 25	7	3	3:01	Punt
6	LV	LV 25	4	0	0:22	Punt
7	KC	KC 26	11	74	5:21	Touchdown +7
8	LV	LV 25	7	18	2:34	Punt
9	KC	KC 13	1	0	0:05	Defensive touchdown
10	KC	KC 25	2	0	0:07	Defensive touchdown
11	KC	KC 25	14	57	4:43	Missed field goal
12	LV	LV 26	1	0	0:05	End of half
13	LV	LV 25	7	8	2:14	Punt
14	KC	KC 9	13	43	7:25	Turnover on downs
15	LV	LV 43	4	-2	1:37	Punt
16	KC	KC 19	4	1	0:57	Punt
17	LV	KC 42	7	25	2:23	Field goal +3
18	KC	KC 24	15	79	5:37	Turnover on downs
19	LV	LV 7	7	18	3:42	Punt
20	KC	KC 31	10	64	3:23	Touchdown +7
21	LV	LV 25	7	64	2:42	End of game

4 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 82 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aidan O'Connell	9/21	62	0	0	2	-13.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Zamir White	22	145	6.6	3.2
Ameer Abdullah	2	11	5.5	0.6
Tre Tucker	1	5	5.0	0.0
Aidan O'Connell	4	-4	-1.0	-3.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jakobi Meyers	3	5	42	26%	0.3
Austin Hooper	2	3	13	16%	0.3
Cole Fotheringham	1	1	6	5%	0.2
Davante Adams	1	6	4	32%	-3.7
Ameer Abdullah	1	1	1	5%	-1.3
Zamir White	0	1	0	5%	-0.9
Hunter Renfrow	0	1	0	5%	-1.2
Tre Tucker	1	1	-4	5%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nate Hobbs	8	2	0.0	0	1
Amik Robertson	5	3	0.0	0	1
Malcolm Koonce	5	1	3.0	0	0
Divine Deablo	6	0	0.0	0	0
Robert Spillane	4	2	0.0	0	0
Jack Jones	4	1	0.0	1	1
Trevon Moehrig	2	1	0.0	0	2
Bilal Nichols	1	2	0.0	0	0
D.J. Turner	1	1	0.0	0	0
Janarius Robinson	1	1	0.0	0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	27/44	235	1	1	4	-14.3
Tommy Townsend	1/1	11	0	0	0	2.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	10	53	5.3	0	7.4
Isiah Pacheco	11	26	2.4	1	-10.5
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	4	6	1.5	0	-3.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rashee Rice	6	12	57	0	29%	-4.6
Richie James	3	3	54	0	7%	4.3
Travis Kelce	5	7	44	0	17%	0.5
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	3	3	42	0	7%	3.1
Justin Watson	4	6	38	1	15%	-2.2
Noah Gray	1	3	5	0	7%	-0.9
Blake Bell	1	1	4	0	2%	0.1
Justyn Ross	1	1	2	0	2%	-0.5
Isiah Pacheco	4	4	0	0	10%	-2.8
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Trent McDuffie	4	1	0.0	0
Nick Bolton	3	1	0.0	0
Mike Edwards	2	2	0.0	0
Justin Reid	2	2	0.0	0
Chamarri Conner	3	0	0.0	0
Drue Tranquill	1	2	0.0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	2	0	0.0	0
Michael Danna	1	1	0.0	1
Mike Pennel	1	1	0.0	0
Chris Jones	1	1	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -11
Closing total: 40.5
LV moneyline: +440
KC moneyline: -600

Chiefs closed -11 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 34 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 38°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: LV 11 days · KC 8 days
Coaches: Antonio Pierce vs Andy Reid

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.