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2024 Week 3 · Mon, Sep 23, 2024 · New Era Field

Jacksonville Jaguars

10

Buffalo BillsWinner

47

BUF -4 ✓O 46.5 ✓

Buffalo Bills 47–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:11, BUF +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BUF ↑JAX ↓
Q1 · 7:11JAX 0 — BUF 6BUF ball · 3rd & 3BUF 79%

(7:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid pushed ob at JAX 20 for 28 yards (26-A.Johnson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 7:11BUF +6% win prob(7:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid pushed ob at JAX 20 for 28 yards (26-A.Johnson).
  2. Q2 · 4:28JAX +5% win prob(4:28) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right intended for 7-B.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 3-D.Hamlin at BUF 40. 3-D.Hamlin to JAX 41 for 19 yards (89-L.Farrell). Receiver overthrown (at BUF 45).
  3. Q1 · 13:01BUF +5% win prob(13:01) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir ran ob at JAX 32 for 12 yards (5-A.Cisco).
  4. Q1 · 10:21BUF +5% win prob(10:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen up the middle to JAX 6 for 9 yards (33-D.Lloyd).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:39BUF Touchdown

    (9:39) 4-J.Cook left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: JAX 0 — BUF 6
  2. Q1 · 3:34BUF Touchdown

    (3:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 9 yds. into end zone, crossing from middle. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 0 — BUF 13
  3. Q2 · 10:43JAX Field goal

    (10:43) 39-C.Little 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 3 — BUF 13
  4. Q2 · 6:25BUF Touchdown

    (6:25) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 0-K.Coleman for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at JAX 5, angling to corner of end zone. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 3 — BUF 20
  5. Q2 · 2:11BUF Touchdown

    (2:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at JAX 23, crossing from middle. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 3 — BUF 27
  6. Q2 · 0:24BUF Touchdown

    (:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 26-Ty.Johnson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in front corner of end zone. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 3 — BUF 34
  7. Q3 · 11:20JAX Touchdown

    (11:20) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 85-B.Strange for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 8 yds. into end zone, near sideline. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 10 — BUF 34
  8. Q3 · 5:06BUF Field goal

    (5:06) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: JAX 10 — BUF 37
  9. Q4 · 7:48BUF Field goal

    (7:48) 2-T.Bass 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: JAX 10 — BUF 40
  10. Q4 · 4:08BUF Touchdown

    (4:08) 22-R.Davis right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 10 — BUF 47

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsBills
Offensive plays6859
Total yards239389 (edge)
Yards per play3.56.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.240.45 (edge)
Success rate37%49% (edge)
Dropback rate76%59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.530.71 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.68 (edge)0.07
Third downs2/136/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)48 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1724 (edge)
Sacks taken50 (edge)
Turnovers20 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.45 expected points added per play vs -0.24.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

23/30, 263 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

22.4 expected points added · +12.8% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

21/38, 178 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-16.1 expected points added · -5.6% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

11 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

6.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

6 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

6.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Christian KirkWR

8/10 for 79 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Khalil ShakirWR

6/6 for 72 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 10.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BUFBUF 3012755:26Touchdown +6
2JAXJAX 27510:57Punt
3BUFBUF 3512655:12Touchdown +7
4JAXJAX 3015477:46Field goal +3
5BUFBUF 3210684:20Touchdown +7
6JAXJAX 306112:06Interception
7BUFJAX 416412:09Touchdown +7
8JAXJAX 30730:52Punt
9BUFBUF 366390:53Touchdown +7
10JAXJAX 30580:19Turnover on downs
11JAXJAX 3010633:45Touchdown +7
12BUFBUF 3012616:12Field goal +3
13JAXJAX 3014535:54Turnover on downs
14BUFBUF 27472:14Punt
15JAXJAX 32401:57Turnover on downs
16BUFJAX 324122:13Field goal +3
17JAXJAX 304-21:24Fumble
18BUFJAX 215212:17Touchdown +7
19JAXJAX 3011553:20Turnover on downs
20BUFBUF 10100:44End of game

10 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 75 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence21/38178114-16.1
Mac Jones5/822001-10.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne11686.206.1
D'Ernest Johnson2126.000.4
Tank Bigsby294.502.5
Trevor Lawrence231.500.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Christian Kirk81079023%4.0
Brian Thomas5948020%-5.4
Gabe Davis2618014%-2.4
Parker Washington231807%-2.4
Travis Etienne4617014%-2.6
Brenton Strange2512111%0.7
Josiah Deguara11802%-0.2
Luke Farrell12105%-1.3
D'Ernest Johnson01002%-0.6
Devin Duvernay11-102%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Montaric Brown430.000
Chad Muma250.000
Ventrell Miller330.001
Christian Braswell140.000
Andre Cisco220.001
Ronald Darby310.000
Travon Walker130.000
Devin Lloyd130.000
Antonio Johnson310.000
Jeremiah Ledbetter210.000

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Allen23/3026340022.4
Mitchell Trubisky1/13000-1.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Allen6447.306.3
James Cook11393.51-0.9
Ray Davis7223.11-0.7
Ty Johnson3186.001.2
Curtis Samuel100.00-1.0
Mitchell Trubisky1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Khalil Shakir6672120%10.8
James Cook4548017%1.6
Dalton Kincaid3541117%3.8
Ty Johnson3328110%2.8
Keon Coleman112413%2.8
Curtis Samuel3322010%0.2
Mack Hollins121607%0.8
Dawson Knox12707%-0.2
Marquez Valdes-Scantling12707%-0.5
Ray Davis11103%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Dorian Williams630.000
Cameron Lewis530.001
Damar Hamlin220.012
Christian Benford310.001
Baylon Spector130.000
Kaiir Elam210.001
Rasul Douglas210.001
Ed Oliver210.000
Casey Toohill111.000
Ja'Marcus Ingram201.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BUF -4
Closing total
46.5
JAX moneyline
+180
BUF moneyline
-218

Bills closed -4 and covered, winning by 37.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 57 — over by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
68°F, wind 5 mph
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
JAX 8 days · BUF 11 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Sean McDermott