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2024 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 27, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium

Atlanta FalconsWinner

31

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

26

ATL -1.5 ✓O 47 ✓

Atlanta Falcons 31–26. Biggest swing: Q2 7:27, TB +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TB ↑ATL ↓
Q2 · 7:27ATL 13 — TB 14ATL ball · 2nd & 10TB 59%

(7:27) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 7:27TB +17% win prob(7:27) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
  2. Q1 · 14:23ATL +13% win prob(14:23) 1-R.White up the middle to TB 43 for 5 yards (50-J.Smith-Williams, 3-J.Bates). FUMBLES (3-J.Bates), RECOVERED by ATL-3-J.Bates at TB 43. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
  3. Q2 · 2:14TB +12% win prob(2:14) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-D.Mooney for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 1:06ATL +11% win prob(1:06) 6-Y.Koo 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:59ATL Touchdown

    (12:59) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-26-K.Merriweather, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 7 — TB 0
  2. Q1 · 4:25TB Touchdown

    (4:25) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 7 — TB 7
  3. Q2 · 10:35TB Touchdown

    (10:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-3-J.Bates, Taunting, 8 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 7 — TB 14
  4. Q2 · 7:27ATL Touchdown

    (7:27) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 14 — TB 14
  5. Q2 · 2:14ATL Touchdown

    (2:14) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-D.Mooney for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 21 — TB 14
  6. Q2 · 1:09TB Field goal

    (1:09) 4-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: ATL 21 — TB 17
  7. Q2 · 0:05ATL Field goal

    (:05) 6-Y.Koo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 24 — TB 17
  8. Q3 · 0:20ATL Touchdown

    (:20) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 7-B.Robinson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 31 — TB 17
  9. Q4 · 12:11TB Safety

    (12:11) 18-K.Cousins FUMBLES (Aborted) at ATL 1, touched at ATL 5, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.

    Score after this play: ATL 31 — TB 19
  10. Q4 · 6:55TB Touchdown

    (6:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 31 — TB 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricFalconsBuccaneers
Offensive plays6070
Total yards394433 (edge)
Yards per play6.6 (edge)6.2
Expected points added / play0.26 (edge)0.09
Success rate53% (edge)51%
Dropback rate53%71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.51 (edge)0.21
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.03 (edge)-0.21
Third downs6/129/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps1925 (edge)
Sacks taken20 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)3

Buccaneers outgained Falcons 433–394 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

37/50, 330 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

8.5 expected points added · +11.5% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Kirk CousinsQB

23/29, 276 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

15.1 expected points added · +12.7% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

13 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Bucky IrvingRB

9 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Kyle PittsTE

4/5 for 91 yds, 2 TD

18% of team targets · 10.5 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Darnell MooneyWR

4/6 for 86 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TBTB 303130:49Fumble
2ATLTB 435431:19Touchdown +7
3TBTB 3017708:30Touchdown +7
4ATLATL 306301:45Punt
5TBTB 3131027:09Touchdown +7
6ATLATL 309703:09Touchdown +7
7TBTB 305181:51Punt
8ATLATL 397613:19Touchdown +7
9TBTB 308361:05Field goal +3
10ATLATL 309441:03Field goal +3
11TBTB 30200:01End of half
12ATLATL 286122:38Punt
13TBTB 395343:11Interception
14ATLATL 89324:41Punt
15TBTB 31451:25Turnover on downs
16ATLTB 367462:51Touchdown +7
17TBTB 306462:20Interception
18ATLATL 62-10:50Safety
19TBTB 2714785:12Touchdown +7
20ATLATL 3014575:51Missed field goal
21TBTB 367311:01End of game

9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 102 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kirk Cousins23/2927640215.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bijan Robinson13634.800.4
Tyler Allgeier12332.80-3.2
Ray-Ray McCloud11717.001.1
Kirk Cousins3165.302.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Kyle Pitts4591218%10.5
Darnell Mooney4686121%7.5
Bijan Robinson7743125%2.4
Drake London4634021%-0.6
Charlie Woerner111304%0.8
Ray-Ray McCloud339011%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kaden Elliss540.000
A.J. Terrell610.011
Mike Hughes510.000
Nate Landman510.000
Jessie Bates320.011
Richie Grant310.000
Dee Alford220.000
James Smith-Williams120.000
Clark Phillips300.000
Matt Judon120.001

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield37/503303208.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bucky Irving9444.900.3
Rachaad White6294.80-3.9
Jalen McMillan11717.001.1
Baker Mayfield3113.703.6
Sean Tucker231.50-0.8
Tavierre Thomas1-2-2.00-3.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Cade Otton91081222%8.1
Rakim Jarrett335807%4.1
Bucky Irving7740015%0.8
Rachaad White5638113%-0.8
Jalen McMillan4735015%-1.5
Trey Palmer222904%1.9
Ryan Miller3519011%-2.9
Sterling Shepard3518011%-0.2
Sean Tucker111202%0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
K.J. Britt370.000
Christian Izien620.000
Antoine Winfield340.000
Lavonte David340.000
Zyon McCollum240.000
Josh Hayes140.000
Jordan Whitehead130.000
Vita Vea310.000
C.J. Brewer302.000
Calijah Kancey300.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
ATL -1.5
Closing total
47
ATL moneyline
-122
TB moneyline
+102

Falcons closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 5.

Total closed 47; the game landed 57 — over by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
79°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
ATL 7 days · TB 6 days
Coaches
Raheem Morris vs Todd Bowles

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.