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2024 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2024 · New Era Field
10
35
Buffalo Bills 35–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 8:52, SF +9% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(8:52) 4-J.Moody 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.
How the points landed
(7:44) 4-J.Moody 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.
Score after this play: SF 3 — BUF 0(:08) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 22-R.Davis right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 3 — BUF 7(8:48) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 4-J.Cook right tackle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 3 — BUF 14(:47) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-M.Hollins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 3 — BUF 21(6:05) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short left to 18-A.Cooper to SF 9 for -2 yards. Lateral to 17-J.Allen for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 3 — BUF 28(3:00) (Shotgun) 31-I.Guerendo left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 10 — BUF 28(12:39) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 10 — BUF 35Down-to-down truth
| Metric | 49ers | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 46 | 53 |
| Total yards | 239 | 375 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.2 | 7.1 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.25 | 0.35 (edge) |
| Success rate | 33% | 53% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 46% | 36% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.36 | 0.50 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.15 | 0.26 (edge) |
| Third downs | 3/10 | 6/11 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 (edge) | 6 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 14 | 19 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 2 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 3 | 0 (edge) |
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
13/17, 148 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
7.5 expected points added · +9.8% completion over expected
Passing · SF
11/18, 94 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-6.7 expected points added · -8.1% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | BUF 22 | 5 | 11 | 2:39 | Punt | |
| 2 | SF | SF 37 | 9 | 48 | 4:40 | Field goal +3 | |
| 3 | BUF | BUF 30 | 15 | 65 | 7:38 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 4 | SF | SF 25 | 10 | 48 | 6:15 | Missed field goal | |
| 5 | BUF | BUF 35 | 2 | 65 | 0:10 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | SF | SF 23 | 9 | 36 | 5:07 | Punt | |
| 7 | BUF | BUF 3 | 10 | 97 | 2:50 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 8 | SF | SF 29 | 6 | 34 | 0:41 | Missed field goal | |
| 9 | SF | BUF 37 | 6 | 27 | 3:15 | Fumble | |
| 10 | BUF | BUF 48 | 4 | 8 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 11 | SF | SF 6 | 4 | 0 | 1:07 | Punt | |
| 12 | BUF | SF 44 | 7 | 44 | 3:05 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 13 | SF | BUF 48 | 8 | 48 | 3:04 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 14 | BUF | BUF 27 | 5 | 8 | 2:25 | Punt | |
| 15 | SF | SF 23 | 3 | 2 | 0:36 | Fumble | |
| 16 | BUF | SF 25 | 5 | 25 | 2:22 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 17 | SF | — | 1 | 0 | 0:09 | Fumble | |
| 18 | BUF | SF 31 | 4 | 11 | 2:48 | Missed field goal | |
| 19 | SF | SF 39 | 4 | -4 | 1:39 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 20 | BUF | BUF 25 | 11 | 41 | 7:55 | End of game |
7 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 97 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 11/18 | 94 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 13 | 78 | 6.0 | 0 | 1.3 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 53 | 7.6 | 0 | 2.7 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 1 | 1.1 |
| Brock Purdy | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | -1.1 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | -8.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jauan Jennings | 3 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 29% | 6.2 |
| Deebo Samuel | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 29% | -2.8 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Renardo Green | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malik Mustapha | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Charvarius Ward |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 13/17 | 148 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7.5 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg |
|---|
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 25.
Total closed 45 and landed exactly there — a push.
Conditions and crew
| -0.8 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 12% | -0.7 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -0.9 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 6% | -0.9 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Dee Winters | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Vondre Campbell | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Warner | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick McCloud | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Anderson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| TD |
|---|
| EPA |
|---|
| James Cook | 14 | 107 | 7.6 | 1 | 2.1 |
| Ray Davis | 11 | 63 | 5.7 | 1 | 4.4 |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Josh Allen | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 1 | 4.5 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 | -4.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 2 | 56 | 0 | 11% | 3.7 |
| Khalil Shakir | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 | 39% | -2.1 |
| Quintin Morris | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 6% | 0.8 |
| James Cook | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 6% | 1.0 |
| Amari Cooper | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 17% | 1.8 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 6% | -0.1 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 6% | 3.1 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6% | -0.1 |
| Zach Davidson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrel Bernard | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Rapp | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damar Hamlin | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaQuan Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Marcus Ingram | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Bass | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
