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2024 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2024 · New Era Field

San Francisco 49ers

10

Buffalo BillsWinner

35

BUF -6.5 ✓45 push28°F

Buffalo Bills 35–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 8:52, SF +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BUF ↑SF ↓
Q2 · 8:52SF 3 — BUF 7SF ball · 4th & 8BUF 73%

(8:52) 4-J.Moody 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 8:52SF +9% win prob(8:52) 4-J.Moody 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.
  2. Q2 · 8:48BUF +8% win prob(8:48) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 4-J.Cook right tackle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 12:15SF +6% win prob(12:15) (Shotgun) 24-J.Mason left guard to BUF 34 for -4 yards (31-R.Douglas).
  4. Q1 · 2:57BUF +5% win prob(2:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left guard to SF 27 for 7 yards (59-D.Campbell).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:44SF Field goal

    (7:44) 4-J.Moody 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

    Score after this play: SF 3 — BUF 0
  2. Q1 · 0:08BUF Touchdown

    (:08) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 22-R.Davis right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 3 — BUF 7
  3. Q2 · 8:48BUF Touchdown

    (8:48) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 4-J.Cook right tackle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 3 — BUF 14
  4. Q2 · 0:47BUF Touchdown

    (:47) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-M.Hollins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 3 — BUF 21
  5. Q3 · 6:05BUF Touchdown

    (6:05) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short left to 18-A.Cooper to SF 9 for -2 yards. Lateral to 17-J.Allen for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 3 — BUF 28
  6. Q3 · 3:00SF Touchdown

    (3:00) (Shotgun) 31-I.Guerendo left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 10 — BUF 28
  7. Q4 · 12:39BUF Touchdown

    (12:39) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 10 — BUF 35

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric49ersBills
Offensive plays4653
Total yards239375 (edge)
Yards per play5.27.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.250.35 (edge)
Success rate33%53% (edge)
Dropback rate46%36%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.360.50 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.150.26 (edge)
Third downs3/106/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps1419 (edge)
Sacks taken20 (edge)
Turnovers30 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs -0.25.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

13/17, 148 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.5 expected points added · +9.8% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

11/18, 94 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-6.7 expected points added · -8.1% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

14 att, 107 yds, 1 TD

2.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Jordan MasonRB

13 att, 78 yds, 0 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Jauan JenningsWR

3/5 for 56 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Khalil ShakirWR

4/7 for 30 yds, 0 TD

39% of team targets · -2.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BUFBUF 225112:39Punt
2SFSF 379484:40Field goal +3
3BUFBUF 3015657:38Touchdown +7
4SFSF 2510486:15Missed field goal
5BUFBUF 352650:10Touchdown +7
6SFSF 239365:07Punt
7BUFBUF 310972:50Touchdown +7
8SFSF 296340:41Missed field goal
9SFBUF 376273:15Fumble
10BUFBUF 48481:35Punt
11SFSF 6401:07Punt
12BUFSF 447443:05Touchdown +7
13SFBUF 488483:04Touchdown +7
14BUFBUF 27582:25Punt
15SFSF 23320:36Fumble
16BUFSF 255252:22Touchdown +7
17SF—100:09Fumble
18BUFSF 314112:48Missed field goal
19SFSF 394-41:39Defensive touchdown
20BUFBUF 2511417:55End of game

7 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 97 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brock Purdy11/1894002-6.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jordan Mason13786.001.3
Christian McCaffrey7537.602.7
Isaac Guerendo4194.811.1
Brock Purdy242.00-1.1
Kyle Juszczyk1-1-1.00-8.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jauan Jennings3556029%6.2
Deebo Samuel4520029%-2.8
Christian McCaffrey2314018%-0.8
George Kittle127012%-0.7
Ricky Pearsall01006%-0.9
Isaac Guerendo11-306%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ji'Ayir Brown340.000
Renardo Green510.001
Malik Mustapha140.001
Charvarius Ward130.000
Dee Winters310.000
De'Vondre Campbell220.000
Fred Warner210.000
Yetur Gross-Matos120.000
Nick McCloud120.000
Evan Anderson120.000

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Allen13/171482007.5
Mitchell Trubisky1/14000-0.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Cook141077.612.1
Ray Davis11635.714.4
Ty Johnson5285.600.8
Josh Allen3186.014.5
Curtis Samuel177.000.3
Mitchell Trubisky4-3-0.80-4.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Dawson Knox2256011%3.7
Khalil Shakir4730039%-2.1
Quintin Morris111406%0.8
James Cook111306%1.0
Amari Cooper3312017%1.8
Ty Johnson11906%-0.1
Mack Hollins11716%3.1
Ray Davis11406%-0.1
Zach Davidson01006%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Terrel Bernard360.000
Taylor Rapp330.000
Rasul Douglas320.000
Taron Johnson320.000
Damar Hamlin400.000
Gregory Rousseau401.000
Matt Milano220.000
DaQuan Jones120.000
Ja'Marcus Ingram110.000
Tyler Bass100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BUF -6.5
Closing total
45
SF moneyline
+270
BUF moneyline
-340

Bills closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 25.

Total closed 45 and landed exactly there — a push.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
28°F, wind 11 mph
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
SF 7 days · BUF 14 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Sean McDermott