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2024 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2024 · Nissan Stadium

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

10

Tennessee Titans

6

TEN -3 upsetU 40 ✓

Jacksonville Jaguars 10–6. Biggest swing: Q4 1:15, JAX +41% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TEN ↑JAX ↓
Q4 · 1:15JAX 10 — TEN 6TEN ball · 4th & 3JAX 52%

(1:15) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 1:15JAX +41% win prob(1:15) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine.
  2. Q4 · 0:59JAX +16% win prob(:59) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to TEN 34, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 40 for 6 yards (81-J.Deguara).
  3. Q4 · 8:01TEN +15% win prob(8:01) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 7-B.Thomas pushed ob at TEN 12 for 31 yards (35-D.Worley).
  4. Q4 · 6:51TEN +11% win prob(6:51) (Shotgun) 4-T.Bigsby left tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:37TEN Field goal

    (8:37) 6-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

    Score after this play: JAX 0 — TEN 3
  2. Q3 · 4:35TEN Field goal

    (4:35) 6-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

    Score after this play: JAX 0 — TEN 6
  3. Q4 · 12:12JAX Field goal

    (12:12) 39-C.Little 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 3 — TEN 6
  4. Q4 · 6:51JAX Touchdown

    (6:51) (Shotgun) 4-T.Bigsby left tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 10 — TEN 6

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsTitans
Offensive plays5762
Total yards293 (edge)272
Yards per play5.1 (edge)4.4
Expected points added / play0.03 (edge)-0.16
Success rate42% (edge)37%
Dropback rate60%55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.12 (edge)-0.32
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.100.03 (edge)
Third downs6/138/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps1616
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers20 (edge)

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Mac JonesQB

23/31, 220 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

5.3 expected points added · +7.8% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Will LevisQB

19/32, 168 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-10.8 expected points added · -9.2% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Tony PollardRB

21 att, 102 yds, 0 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Tank BigsbyRB

18 att, 55 yds, 1 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Brian ThomasWR

8/12 for 86 yds, 0 TD

40% of team targets · -0.5 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Calvin RidleyWR

7/12 for 59 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · -3.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TENTEN 2212516:28Field goal +3
2JAXJAX 2510304:58Interception
3TENTEN 374111:54Punt
4JAXJAX 117373:45Punt
5TENTEN 815908:14Turnover on downs
6JAXJAX 213624:40Interception
7TENJAX 491-130:01End of half
8JAXJAX 18541:10Punt
9TENTEN 295111:32Punt
10JAXJAX 4492:11Punt
11TENTEN 3411455:37Field goal +3
12JAXJAX 3015657:21Field goal +3
13TENTEN 286162:02Punt
14JAXJAX 198813:21Touchdown +7
15TENTEN 3012615:35Turnover on downs
16JAXJAX 9450:22Punt
17TENTEN 40400:21Turnover on downs
18JAXTEN 35100:28End of game

4 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 90 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Mac Jones23/312200215.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tank Bigsby18553.11-0.4
Travis Etienne4205.000.0
Mac Jones331.00-3.6
Devin Duvernay1-7-7.00-1.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brian Thomas81286040%-0.5
Travis Etienne4450013%4.8
Evan Engram4633020%0.0
Brenton Strange112103%1.5
Parker Washington221507%1.0
Devin Duvernay338010%0.7
Tank Bigsby12707%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foyesade Oluokun650.000
Devin Lloyd170.000
Davon Hamilton230.000
Montaric Brown410.002
Tyler Lacy140.000
Jarrian Jones231.002
Antonio Johnson400.000
Tyson Campbell120.001
Travon Walker210.000
Josiah Deguara110.000

Tennessee Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Will Levis19/32168002-10.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tony Pollard211024.902.3
Tyjae Spears6213.50-1.8
Will Levis133.000.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Calvin Ridley71259038%-3.9
Josh Whyle223106%1.5
Tony Pollard222206%1.9
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine121906%-1.8
Bryce Oliver111603%1.0
Chigoziem Okonkwo348013%0.5
Tyler Boyd147013%-2.5
Nick Vannett12406%-2.9
Tyjae Spears12206%-1.4
David Martin-Robinson01003%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jarvis Brownlee630.000
Luke Gifford630.000
Otis Reese330.011
Daryl Worley510.000
Amani Hooker420.000
Sebastian Joseph230.000
Arden Key130.000
Jeffery Simmons220.001
Darrell Baker300.000
Chidobe Awuzie210.011

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
TEN -3
Closing total
40
JAX moneyline
+142
TEN moneyline
-170

Titans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40; the game landed 16 — under by 24.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
53°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
JAX 7 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Brian Callahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.