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2024 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2024 · Nissan Stadium
10
6
Jacksonville Jaguars 10–6. Biggest swing: Q4 1:15, JAX +41% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(1:15) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine.
How the points landed
(8:37) 6-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: JAX 0 — TEN 3(4:35) 6-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: JAX 0 — TEN 6(12:12) 39-C.Little 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 3 — TEN 6(6:51) (Shotgun) 4-T.Bigsby left tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 10 — TEN 6Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Jaguars | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 57 | 62 |
| Total yards | 293 (edge) | 272 |
| Yards per play | 5.1 (edge) | 4.4 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.03 (edge) | -0.16 |
| Success rate | 42% (edge) | 37% |
| Dropback rate | 60% | 55% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.12 (edge) | -0.32 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.10 | 0.03 (edge) |
| Third downs | 6/13 | 8/16 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 (edge) | 5 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 16 | 16 |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 2 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 (edge) |
Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Who moved the needle
Passing · JAX
23/31, 220 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
5.3 expected points added · +7.8% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
19/32, 168 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-10.8 expected points added · -9.2% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | TEN 22 | 12 | 51 | 6:28 | Field goal +3 | |
| 2 | JAX | JAX 25 | 10 | 30 | 4:58 | Interception | |
| 3 | TEN | TEN 37 | 4 | 11 | 1:54 | Punt | |
| 4 | JAX | JAX 11 | 7 | 37 | 3:45 | Punt | |
| 5 | TEN | TEN 8 | 15 | 90 | 8:14 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | JAX | JAX 2 | 13 | 62 | 4:40 | Interception | |
| 7 | TEN | JAX 49 | 1 | -13 | 0:01 | End of half | |
| 8 | JAX | JAX 18 | 5 | 4 | 1:10 | Punt | |
| 9 | TEN | TEN 29 | 5 | 11 | 1:32 | Punt | |
| 10 | JAX | JAX 4 | 4 | 9 | 2:11 | Punt | |
| 11 | TEN | TEN 34 | 11 | 45 | 5:37 | Field goal +3 | |
| 12 | JAX | JAX 30 | 15 | 65 | 7:21 | Field goal +3 | |
| 13 | TEN | TEN 28 | 6 | 16 | 2:02 | Punt | |
| 14 | JAX | JAX 19 | 8 | 81 | 3:21 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 15 | TEN | TEN 30 | 12 | 61 | 5:35 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | JAX | JAX 9 | 4 | 5 | 0:22 | Punt | |
| 17 | TEN | TEN 40 | 4 | 0 | 0:21 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | JAX | TEN 35 | 1 | 0 | 0:28 | End of game |
4 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 90 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a turnover on downs.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 23/31 | 220 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank Bigsby | 18 | 55 | 3.1 | 1 | -0.4 |
| Travis Etienne | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Mac Jones | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | -3.6 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas | 8 | 12 | 86 | 0 | 40% | -0.5 |
| Travis Etienne | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 | 13% | 4.8 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Lloyd | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Hamilton | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montaric Brown |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 19/32 | 168 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 21 | 102 | 4.9 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Titans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40; the game landed 16 — under by 24.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 0.0 |
| Brenton Strange | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 3% | 1.5 |
| Parker Washington | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 7% | 1.0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 10% | 0.7 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | -1.1 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Tyler Lacy | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarrian Jones | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Antonio Johnson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Campbell | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Travon Walker | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2.3 |
| Tyjae Spears | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Will Levis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 7 | 12 | 59 | 0 | 38% | -3.9 |
| Josh Whyle | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 6% | 1.5 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 6% | 1.9 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 6% | -1.8 |
| Bryce Oliver | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3% | 1.0 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 13% | 0.5 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 13% | -2.5 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6% | -2.9 |
| Tyjae Spears | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6% | -1.4 |
| David Martin-Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Brownlee | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Gifford | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Otis Reese | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Daryl Worley | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amani Hooker | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sebastian Joseph | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arden Key | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Darrell Baker | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chidobe Awuzie | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
