2025 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 7, 2025 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

Cleveland Browns

CIN -5.5 no coverU 47.5 ✓Bengals closed -5.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Cincinnati Bengals 17–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:30, CIN +41% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:30CIN 17 — CLE 16CLE ball · 2nd & 1CIN 52%

(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left intended for 19-C.Tillman INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Turner at CLE 47. 20-D.Turner to CLE 40 for 7 yards (34-J.Ford).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:30CIN +41% win prob(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left intended for 19-C.Tillman INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Turner at CLE 47. 20-D.Turner to CLE 40 for 7 yards (34-J.Ford).
Q4 · 2:25CIN +16% win prob(2:25) 25-A.Szmyt 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q4 · 3:10CIN +15% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at CIN 18 for -6 yards (92-B.Hill).
Q3 · 4:59CIN +13% win prob(4:59) 15-J.Flacco pass deep middle intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Battle at CLE 36. 27-J.Battle to CLE 29 for 7 yards (44-H.Fannin; 34-J.Ford). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 15-J.Flacco pass deep middle intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Battle at CLE 36. 27-J.Battle to CLE 34 for 2 yards (3-J.Jeudy).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:37CIN Touchdown
(7:37) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 7 — CLE 0
Q2 · 12:44CLE Touchdown
(12:44) 98-A.Huntington reported in as eligible. 35-R.Sanders right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 7 — CLE 7
Q2 · 4:21CIN Touchdown
(4:21) 61-C.Ford and 74-J.Rivers reported in as eligible. 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 86-N.Fant for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 14 — CLE 7
Q2 · 0:27CLE Field goal
(:27) 25-A.Szmyt 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: CIN 14 — CLE 10
Q3 · 7:24CLE Touchdown
(7:24) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle to 19-C.Tillman for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CIN 14 — CLE 16
Q3 · 2:52CIN Field goal
(2:52) 2-E.McPherson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Score after this play: CIN 17 — CLE 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Browns
Offensive plays	49	71
Total yards	141	327 (edge)
Yards per play	2.9	4.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.11	-0.05 (edge)
Success rate	41% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	57%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	-0.04 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	-0.07 (edge)
Third downs	7/14	9/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	3 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	10	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Browns outgained Bengals 327–141 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Joe FlaccoQB

31/45, 290 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-1.8 expected points added · +2.4% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

14/23, 113 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-0.3 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Chase BrownRB

21 att, 43 yds, 1 TD

-3.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Dylan SampsonRB

12 att, 29 yds, 0 TD

-2.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Jerry JeudyWR

5/8 for 66 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · -3.3 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Dylan SampsonRB

8/8 for 64 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 32	14	67	7:28	Touchdown +7
2	CLE	CLE 33	18	58	9:50	Touchdown +7
3	CIN	CIN 39	8	19	3:13	Punt
4	CLE	CLE 20	4	2	0:58	Punt
5	CIN	CIN 46	9	39	4:13	Touchdown +7
6	CLE	CLE 22	12	51	3:55	Field goal +3
7	CIN	CIN 26	3	9	0:23	End of half
8	CLE	CLE 31	15	84	7:40	Touchdown +6
9	CIN	CIN 20	5	8	1:43	Punt
10	CLE	CLE 25	2	-6	0:44	Interception
11	CIN	CLE 34	7	17	2:05	Field goal +3
12	CLE	CLE 25	8	36	3:35	Turnover on downs
13	CIN	CIN 39	4	1	1:03	Punt
14	CLE	CLE 20	7	38	3:48	Punt
15	CIN	CIN 20	4	-18	2:26	Punt
16	CLE	CIN 42	10	24	4:34	Missed field goal
17	CIN	CIN 26	4	9	0:32	Punt
18	CLE	CLE 33	2	9	0:26	Interception
19	CIN	CLE 40	4	-10	1:05	Punt
20	CLE	CLE 1	3	31	0:19	End of game

6 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 84 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	14/23	113	1	0	3	-0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chase Brown	21	43	2.0	1	-3.4
Joe Burrow	2	3	1.5	0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	3	4	33	0	17%	3.4
Noah Fant	4	5	26	1	22%	1.8
Ja'Marr Chase	2	5	26	0	22%	-1.6
Mike Gesicki	1	3	14	0	13%	1.1
Chase Brown	2	3	8	0	13%	-1.4
Samaje Perine	2	2	6	0	9%	0.3
Drew Sample	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Battle	4	7	0.0	1	1
Demetrius Knight Jr.	6	2	0.0	0	1
Daxton Hill	4	4	0.0	0	0
B.J. Hill	3	4	1.0	0	0
Logan Wilson	4	3	0.0	0	2
Geno Stone	1	4	0.0	0	0
Tycen Anderson	2	2	0.0	0	0
Trey Hendrickson	3	0	1.0	0	0
Josh Newton	3	0	0.0	0	0
Kris Jenkins	2	0	0.0	0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Flacco	31/45	290	1	2	2	-1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dylan Sampson	12	29	2.4	0	-2.1
Jerome Ford	6	8	1.3	0	-2.9
Joe Flacco	2	6	3.0	0	0.1
Harold Fannin Jr.	1	3	3.0	0	-0.3
Raheim Sanders	3	3	1.0	1	3.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jerry Jeudy	5	8	66	0	19%	-3.3
Dylan Sampson	8	8	64	0	19%	5.0
Harold Fannin Jr.	7	9	63	0	21%	0.4
Cedric Tillman	5	8	52	1	19%	0.8
David Njoku	3	6	37	0	14%	0.4
Jamari Thrash	1	1	6	0	2%	0.1
Isaiah Bond	1	1	5	0	2%	0.0
Jerome Ford	1	1	-3	0	2%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Carson Schwesinger	2	5	0.0	0
Isaiah McGuire	4	2	1.0	0
Devin Bush	3	3	0.0	1
Myles Garrett	5	0	2.0	0
Ronnie Hickman Jr.	3	2	0.0	1
Greg Newsome II	3	0	0.0	2
Mohamoud Diabate	2	1	0.0	0
Grant Delpit	1	2	0.0	0
Myles Harden	2	0	0.0	0
Adin Huntington	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -5.5
Closing total: 47.5
CIN moneyline: -238
CLE moneyline: +195

Bengals closed -5.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 33 — under by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 63°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: CIN 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Kevin Stefanski

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.