2025 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 7, 2025 · Lumen Field

San Francisco 49ersWinner

Seattle Seahawks

SF -2.5 ✓U 43.5 ✓49ers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 4.

San Francisco 49ers 17–13. Biggest swing: Q4 0:42, SF +51% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:42SF 17 — SEA 13SEA ball · 2nd & 5SEA 53%

(:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SF 16 for -7 yards (97-N.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-N.Bosa), touched at SF 13, RECOVERED by SF-97-N.Bosa at SF 16. PENALTY on SF-2-D.Lenoir, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 8 yards, enf

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:42SF +51% win prob(:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SF 16 for -7 yards (97-N.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-N.Bosa), touched at SF 13, RECOVERED by SF-97-N.Bosa at SF 16. PENALTY on SF-2-D.Lenoir, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 8 yards, enforced at SF 16.
Q4 · 1:13SEA +25% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at SF 14 for 40 yards (0-R.Green).
Q4 · 2:38SEA +24% win prob(2:38) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 1-R.Pearsall ran ob at SEA 22 for 45 yards (8-C.Bryant).
Q4 · 1:44SEA +16% win prob(1:44) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 88-J.Tonges for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-D.Hall].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 3:47SF Touchdown
(3:47) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 7 — SEA 0
Q2 · 13:41SEA Touchdown
(13:41) 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 26-Z.Charbonnet left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 7 — SEA 7
Q2 · 0:07SEA Field goal
(:07) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SF 7 — SEA 10
Q4 · 9:45SF Field goal
(9:45) 4-J.Moody 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: SF 10 — SEA 10
Q4 · 3:28SEA Field goal
(3:28) 5-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SF 10 — SEA 13
Q4 · 1:44SF Touchdown
(1:44) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 88-J.Tonges for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-D.Hall]. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 17 — SEA 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Seahawks
Offensive plays	70	49
Total yards	386 (edge)	230
Yards per play	5.5 (edge)	4.7
Expected points added / play	0.11 (edge)	-0.27
Success rate	50% (edge)	47%
Dropback rate	56%	49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.37 (edge)	-0.41
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21	-0.13 (edge)
Third downs	7/14 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	2	2

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.27.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

26/35, 277 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

13.3 expected points added · +15.3% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Sam DarnoldQB

16/23, 150 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-6.8 expected points added · +7.3% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

22 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

-5.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Zach CharbonnetRB

12 att, 47 yds, 1 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR

9/13 for 124 yds, 0 TD

59% of team targets · 0.4 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Ricky PearsallWR

4/7 for 108 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 35	6	23	2:55	Punt
2	SF	SF 5	15	85	8:22	Touchdown +7
3	SEA	SEA 31	12	51	5:05	Touchdown +7
4	SF	SF 35	5	5	1:32	Punt
5	SEA	SEA 35	4	-1	1:02	Punt
6	SF	SF 14	6	18	3:00	Punt
7	SEA	SEA 14	4	-1	1:58	Punt
8	SF	SF 34	12	58	5:09	Missed field goal
9	SEA	SEA 20	8	50	0:55	Field goal +3
10	SF	SF 35	2	0	0:02	End of half
11	SF	SF 25	6	36	2:54	Interception
12	SEA	SEA 29	4	7	1:31	Punt
13	SF	SF 25	14	57	8:21	Missed field goal
14	SEA	SEA 31	5	26	2:24	Fumble
15	SF	SF 34	11	52	5:08	Field goal +3
16	SEA	SEA 37	5	-6	1:32	Punt
17	SF	SF 30	2	7	1:04	Interception
18	SEA	SEA 47	8	34	3:42	Field goal +3
19	SF	SF 32	9	68	1:50	Touchdown +7
20	SEA	SEA 35	6	47	0:58	Fumble
21	SF	SF 8	1	0	0:36	End of game

6 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	26/35	277	2	2	1	13.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	22	69	3.1	-5.3
Brian Robinson	9	33	3.7	-1.2
Brock Purdy	5	17	3.4	1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ricky Pearsall	4	7	108	0	21%	5.1
Christian McCaffrey	9	10	73	0	29%	4.8
Kyle Juszczyk	2	2	32	0	6%	2.3
George Kittle	4	4	25	1	12%	4.3
Jauan Jennings	2	5	16	0	15%	-5.3
Jake Tonges	3	3	15	1	9%	3.4
Brian Robinson	1	2	4	0	6%	-0.5
Luke Farrell	1	1	4	0	3%	2.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Fred Warner	4	4	0.0	0
Nick Bosa	6	0	1.0	0
Marques Sigle	5	1	0.0	0
Dee Winters	4	1	0.0	0
Jason Pinnock	4	0	0.0	0
Luke Gifford	1	3	0.0	0
Renardo Green	2	2	0.0	2
Sam Okuayinonu	2	0	0.0	0
Deommodore Lenoir	2	0	0.0	0
Tatum Bethune	1	1	0.0	0

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	16/23	150	0	0	1	-6.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Zach Charbonnet	12	47	3.9	1	-0.1
Kenneth Walker III	10	20	2.0	0	-3.6
Sam Darnold	2	14	7.0	0	1.0
AJ Barner	1	2	2.0	0	0.2
Jalen Milroe	1	1	1.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	9	13	124	59%	0.4
Cooper Kupp	2	3	15	14%	-2.0
Elijah Arroyo	1	1	7	5%	0.3
Kenneth Walker III	3	3	4	14%	-1.6
AJ Barner	1	2	0	9%	-2.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Julian Love	8	2	1.0	0	0
Devon Witherspoon	7	1	0.0	0	0
Coby Bryant	6	2	0.0	0	0
Leonard Williams	3	4	0.0	0	0
Ernest Jones	2	5	0.0	1	2
Byron Murphy II	2	4	0.0	0	0
Tyrice Knight	3	3	0.0	0	0
Jarran Reed	2	3	0.0	0	0
DeMarcus Lawrence	1	4	0.0	0	0
Riq Woolen	3	1	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -2.5
Closing total: 43.5
SF moneyline: -135
SEA moneyline: +114

49ers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 4.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 30 — under by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lumen Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 67°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: SF 7 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Mike Macdonald

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.