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2025 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Arizona Cardinals

27

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

31

IND -8.5 no coverO 46.5 ✓Dome

Indianapolis Colts 31–27. Biggest swing: Q4 0:58, ARI +36% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3IND ↑ARI ↓
Q4 · 0:58ARI 27 — IND 31ARI ball · 4th & 7IND 61%

(:58) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 85-T.McBride [97-L.Latu].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:58ARI +36% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 85-T.McBride [97-L.Latu].
  2. Q4 · 2:00IND +17% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 14-Mi.Wilson to IND 12 for 30 yards (35-J.Edwards).
  3. Q2 · 13:17ARI +13% win prob(13:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right intended for 17-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Blackmon at IND 4. 29-M.Blackmon ran ob at IND 13 for 9 yards (20-Z.Knight).
  4. Q2 · 14:03ARI +12% win prob(14:03) 17-D.Jones pass short left intended for 81-M.Alie-Cox INTERCEPTED by 2-Ma.Wilson at IND 36. 2-Ma.Wilson to IND 27 for 9 yards (81-M.Alie-Cox).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:06IND Touchdown

    (11:06) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 84-T.Warren for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 0 — IND 7
  2. Q1 · 1:45ARI Touchdown

    (1:45) 71-J.Gaines and 68-K.Beachum reported in as eligible. 20-Z.Knight left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 7 — IND 7
  3. Q2 · 7:56IND Touchdown

    (7:56) 17-D.Jones scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 7 — IND 14
  4. Q2 · 1:59ARI Field goal

    (1:59) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-49-P.O'Donnell.

    Score after this play: ARI 10 — IND 14
  5. Q3 · 8:43ARI Touchdown

    (8:43) 68-K.Beachum and 71-J.Gaines reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 17 — IND 14
  6. Q3 · 4:36IND Field goal

    (4:36) 12-M.Badgley 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: ARI 17 — IND 17
  7. Q3 · 1:28ARI Touchdown

    (1:28) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 4-G.Dortch for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI-20-Z.Knight was injured during the play. Penalty on IND-29-M.Blackmon, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 24 — IND 17
  8. Q4 · 13:17IND Touchdown

    (13:17) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 1-J.Downs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [25-Z.Collins]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 24 — IND 24
  9. Q4 · 9:36ARI Field goal

    (9:36) 38-C.Ryland 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-49-P.O'Donnell.

    Score after this play: ARI 27 — IND 24
  10. Q4 · 4:35IND Touchdown

    (4:35) 28-J.Taylor left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 27 — IND 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCardinalsColts
Offensive plays7056
Total yards400 (edge)357
Yards per play5.76.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.090.15 (edge)
Success rate47%54% (edge)
Dropback rate67%59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.150.15 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.030.14 (edge)
Third downs9/14 (edge)4/8
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)8
First downs gained on snaps2424
Sacks taken21 (edge)
Turnovers11

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs 0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Jacoby BrissettQB

27/44, 320 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

6.3 expected points added · +4.6% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Daniel JonesQB

22/30, 212 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

2.8 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

21 att, 123 yds, 1 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Michael CarterRB

9 att, 34 yds, 0 TD

-1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Zay JonesWR

5/8 for 79 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 0.5 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Trey McBrideTE

8/11 for 72 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 3511653:59Touchdown +7
2ARIARI 355110:54Punt
3INDIND 164-12:13Punt
4ARIARI 4412566:12Touchdown +7
5INDIND 29571:37Punt
6ARIARI 94-21:02Punt
7INDIND 32100:08Interception
8ARIIND 272110:46Interception
9INDIND 1310875:18Touchdown +7
10ARIARI 3014585:55Field goal +3
11INDIND 298191:30Punt
12ARIARI 205270:26End of half
13ARIARI 3912616:21Touchdown +7
14INDIND 3110424:08Field goal +3
15ARIARI 348513:09Touchdown +7
16INDIND 338673:10Touchdown +7
17ARIARI 4010493:41Field goal +3
18INDIND 3411514:59Touchdown +7
19ARIARI 1311783:39Turnover on downs
20INDIND 94200:53End of game

10 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 87 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jacoby Brissett27/443202126.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Michael Carter9343.80-1.9
Bam Knight11343.110.2
Jacoby Brissett3196.302.1
Emari Demercado111.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Zay Jones5879021%0.5
Trey McBride81172128%3.2
Michael Wilson4544013%1.5
Elijah Higgins223405%3.3
Marvin Harrison Jr.223205%2.9
Michael Carter2530013%-0.1
Bam Knight122005%0.8
Greg Dortch33918%0.2
Emari Demercado01003%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Mack Wilson530.011
Akeem Davis-Gaither440.001
Budda Baker330.001
Jalen Thompson330.000
Dante Stills230.000
Max Melton220.001
Zachary Carter210.000
Will Johnson210.000
Dalvin Tomlinson210.000
PJ Mustipher110.000

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Daniel Jones22/302122112.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor211235.912.0
Daniel Jones5204.012.8
Ameer Abdullah177.000.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyler Warren6963130%2.2
Alec Pierce2448013%2.5
Josh Downs6742123%4.4
Michael Pittman2320010%1.4
Mo Alie-Cox121607%-5.2
Jonathan Taylor4414013%-1.8
Ameer Abdullah11903%0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Germaine Pratt730.000
Zaire Franklin630.000
Kwity Paye342.000
Nick Cross410.000
Mekhi Blackmon410.012
Johnathan Edwards400.000
Grover Stewart210.000
DeForest Buckner210.000
Laiatu Latu120.000
Buddy Johnson300.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
IND -8.5
Closing total
46.5
ARI moneyline
+360
IND moneyline
-470

Colts closed -8.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 58 — over by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
ARI 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches
Jonathan Gannon vs Shane Steichen