2025 Week 15 · Mon, Dec 15, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium

Miami Dolphins

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

PIT -3 ✓O 42.5 ✓17°FSteelers closed -3 and covered, winning by 13.

Pittsburgh Steelers 28–15. Biggest swing: Q2 0:21, PIT +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:21MIA 3 — PIT 6PIT ball · 3rd & 1PIT 63%

(:21) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:21PIT +11% win prob(:21) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:46PIT +10% win prob(1:46) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle to MIA 14 for 1 yard (25-T.Dodson; 21-A.Davis).
Q1 · 8:01MIA +9% win prob(8:01) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 22-A.Samuel at PIT 19. 22-A.Samuel to PIT 19 for no gain (17-J.Waddle).
Q2 · 5:17PIT +8% win prob(5:17) 47-R.Patterson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 5:17MIA Field goal
(5:17) 47-R.Patterson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: MIA 3 — PIT 0
Q2 · 0:21PIT Touchdown
(:21) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 3 — PIT 7
Q3 · 11:26PIT Touchdown
(11:26) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 3 — PIT 14
Q3 · 5:06PIT Touchdown
(5:06) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 3 — PIT 21
Q4 · 13:07PIT Touchdown
(13:07) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 81-J.Smith right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 3 — PIT 28
Q4 · 9:48MIA Touchdown
(9:48) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 83-D.Waller for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: MIA 9 — PIT 28
Q4 · 2:38MIA Touchdown
(2:38) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 83-D.Waller for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: MIA 15 — PIT 28

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Steelers
Offensive plays	50	62
Total yards	285	336 (edge)
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	5.4
Expected points added / play	-0.04	0.22 (edge)
Success rate	42%	53% (edge)
Dropback rate	70%	48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04	0.37 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23	0.08 (edge)
Third downs	2/8	4/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	18	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	3 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

22/28, 253 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

2.6 expected points added · +15.5% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Aaron RodgersQB

23/27, 224 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

11.1 expected points added · +10.4% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Kenneth GainwellRB

13 att, 80 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

De'Von AchaneRB

12 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

De'Von AchaneRB

6/6 for 67 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Darren WallerTE

7/8 for 66 yds, 2 TD

31% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 27	6	23	2:23	Punt
2	PIT	PIT 20	4	9	2:23	Punt
3	MIA	MIA 29	4	31	2:20	Interception
4	PIT	PIT 19	14	39	8:02	Punt
5	MIA	MIA 20	6	19	3:48	Punt
6	PIT	PIT 29	4	10	2:29	Punt
7	MIA	MIA 31	7	33	3:24	Field goal +3
8	PIT	PIT 40	14	58	4:54	Touchdown +7
9	MIA	MIA 35	2	7	0:17	End of half
10	PIT	PIT 29	8	71	3:40	Touchdown +7
11	MIA	MIA 40	5	-8	2:14	Punt
12	PIT	PIT 23	11	72	4:08	Touchdown +7
13	MIA	MIA 29	5	-12	1:46	Punt
14	PIT	PIT 19	10	71	5:11	Touchdown +7
15	MIA	MIA 35	8	65	3:20	Touchdown +6
16	PIT	PIT 36	5	9	2:18	Punt
17	MIA	MIA 14	10	86	4:51	Touchdown +6
18	PIT	50	5	-3	0:28	Punt
19	MIA	MIA 3	7	41	2:04	End of game

7 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 86 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	22/28	253	2	1	4	2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
De'Von Achane	12	60	5.0	-0.1
Jaylen Wright	1	2	2.0	-0.6
Tua Tagovailoa	1	1	1.0	-1.2
Ollie Gordon II	2	0	0.0	-2.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
De'Von Achane	6	6	67	0	23%	4.1
Darren Waller	7	8	66	2	31%	5.6
Greg Dulcich	2	2	46	0	8%	1.5
Jaylen Waddle	2	4	26	0	15%	-3.2
Julian Hill	2	2	25	0	8%	1.4
Malik Washington	1	1	10	0	4%	0.1
Jaylen Wright	1	1	9	0	4%	0.7
Alec Ingold	1	1	4	0	4%	-0.4
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordyn Brooks	7	6	1.0	1
Tyrel Dodson	8	2	0.0	0
Jack Jones	6	2	0.0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	5	1	0.0	0
Ashtyn Davis	2	4	0.0	0
Rasul Douglas	1	4	0.0	0
Bradley Chubb	2	2	0.0	0
Ifeatu Melifonwu	1	2	0.0	0
Dante Trader Jr.	1	1	0.0	0
Isaiah Johnson	2	0	0.0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	23/27	224	2	0	3	11.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kenneth Gainwell	13	80	6.2	0	0.5
Jaylen Warren	12	33	2.8	0	-2.8
Jonnu Smith	1	14	14.0	1	2.0
Connor Heyward	4	4	1.0	1	3.7
Kaleb Johnson	2	4	2.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DK Metcalf	3	3	55	1	11%	6.2
Kenneth Gainwell	7	7	46	0	26%	5.1
Pat Freiermuth	3	5	45	0	19%	5.2
Darnell Washington	3	4	25	0	15%	0.8
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1	1	19	1	4%	2.5
Jaylen Warren	3	3	15	0	11%	-0.7
Jonnu Smith	2	2	12	0	7%	0.1
Adam Thielen	1	1	7	0	4%	0.0
Calvin Austin III	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Patrick Queen	9	1	0.0	0	0
Jalen Ramsey	4	2	1.0	0	0
Malik Harrison	3	2	0.0	0	0
Cameron Heyward	3	2	1.0	0	0
Payton Wilson	2	2	1.0	0	0
Esezi Otomewo	1	2	1.0	0	0
Jack Sawyer	1	2	0.0	0	0
Alex Highsmith	2	0	0.0	0	1
Asante Samuel Jr.	2	0	0.0	1	1
Kyle Dugger	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -3
Closing total: 42.5
MIA moneyline: +145
PIT moneyline: -175

Steelers closed -3 and covered, winning by 13.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 43 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 17°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: MIA 8 days · PIT 8 days
Coaches: Mike McDaniel vs Mike Tomlin