2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · Paycor Stadium

Cleveland BrownsWinner

Cincinnati Bengals

CIN -9.5 upsetU 47.5 ✓Bengals closed -9.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cleveland Browns 20–18 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, CIN +50% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:03CLE 20 — CIN 18CLE ball · 4th & 3CLE 50%

(:03) 25-A.Szmyt 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. ** Injury Update: CIN-23-D.Hill has returned to the game.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:03CIN +50% win prob(:03) 25-A.Szmyt 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. ** Injury Update: CIN-23-D.Hill has returned to the game.
Q2 · 14:19CLE +25% win prob(14:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 86-N.Fant to CIN 46 for 5 yards (17-J.Baker; 9-G.Delpit). FUMBLES (17-J.Baker), RECOVERED by CLE-27-S.Webb at CIN 47. 27-S.Webb for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CLE-27-S.Webb, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 · 0:39CIN +22% win prob(:39) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short left to 3-J.Jeudy to CIN 38 for 11 yards (23-D.Hill). CIN-23-D.Hill was injured during the play.
Q1 · 1:11CLE +19% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Bush (93-S.Harris) at CLE 3. 30-D.Bush for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CLE-30-D.Bush, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:02CIN Touchdown
(8:02) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CLE 0 — CIN 6
Q1 · 1:11CLE Touchdown
(1:11) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Bush (93-S.Harris) at CLE 3. 30-D.Bush for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CLE-30-D.Bush, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 7 — CIN 6
Q2 · 14:19CLE Touchdown
(14:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 86-N.Fant to CIN 46 for 5 yards (17-J.Baker; 9-G.Delpit). FUMBLES (17-J.Baker), RECOVERED by CLE-27-S.Webb at CIN 47. 27-S.Webb for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CLE-27-S.Webb, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 14 — CIN 6
Q2 · 0:33CIN Touchdown
(:33) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 5-T.Higgins for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-27-S.Webb, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Score after this play: CLE 14 — CIN 12
Q3 · 8:05CLE Field goal
(8:05) 25-A.Szmyt 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: CLE 17 — CIN 12
Q4 · 1:34CIN Touchdown
(1:34) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE-27-S.Webb was injured during the play.
Score after this play: CLE 17 — CIN 18
Q4 · 0:03CLE Field goal
(:03) 25-A.Szmyt 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. ** Injury Update: CIN-23-D.Hill has returned to the game.
Score after this play: CLE 20 — CIN 18

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Bengals
Offensive plays	52	67
Total yards	200	364 (edge)
Yards per play	3.8	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.13	-0.11 (edge)
Success rate	35%	58% (edge)
Dropback rate	58%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.28	-0.28 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09	0.18 (edge)
Third downs	5/14	5/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	10	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Bengals outgained Browns 364–200 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

29/39, 236 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

-3.4 expected points added · +6.8% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Shedeur SandersQB

11/22, 111 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-9.7 expected points added · -11.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Chase BrownRB

13 att, 72 yds, 0 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Samaje PerineRB

8 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

8/10 for 96 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

6/9 for 67 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · -7.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 34	5	10	2:23	Punt
2	CLE	CLE 5	5	24	2:15	Fumble
3	CIN	CLE 29	5	29	2:23	Touchdown +6
4	CLE	CLE 24	5	4	1:39	Punt
5	CIN	CIN 30	9	63	5:24	Defensive touchdown
6	CIN	CIN 30	5	16	1:50	Defensive touchdown
7	CIN	CIN 28	8	27	4:22	Punt
8	CLE	CLE 12	5	-1	2:31	Punt
9	CIN	CIN 22	4	7	0:57	Punt
10	CLE	CLE 30	4	6	1:35	Punt
11	CIN	CIN 21	10	79	4:12	Touchdown +6
12	CLE	CLE 30	4	7	0:29	End of half
13	CLE	CLE 35	13	61	7:00	Field goal +3
14	CIN	CIN 30	11	31	6:04	Punt
15	CLE	CLE 9	12	50	6:20	Punt
16	CIN	CIN 9	13	41	6:47	Punt
17	CLE	CLE 9	4	9	1:08	Punt
18	CIN	CIN 39	8	61	1:12	Touchdown +6
19	CLE	CLE 29	11	40	1:29	Field goal +3

5 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 79 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Shedeur Sanders	11/22	111	0	0	6	-9.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Dylan Sampson	10	32	3.2	-0.8
Shedeur Sanders	3	26	8.7	2.2
Raheim Sanders	5	26	5.2	-1.3
Malachi Corley	3	18	6.0	0.6
Trayveon Williams	1	7	7.0	-0.0
Jerry Jeudy	1	5	5.0	2.7
Isaiah Bond	1	4	4.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Cedric Tillman	1	2	23	10%	2.2
Malachi Corley	2	2	20	10%	1.7
Jerry Jeudy	2	6	17	29%	-2.9
Trayveon Williams	1	2	13	10%	-1.7
Isaiah Bond	1	2	13	10%	0.6
Dylan Sampson	2	3	12	14%	0.1
Raheim Sanders	1	1	7	5%	1.2
Brenden Bates	1	1	6	5%	0.2
Sal Cannella	0	1	0	5%	-0.6
Blake Whiteheart	0	1	0	5%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Devin Bush	6	8	0.0	1	1
Grant Delpit	5	5	1.0	0	0
Ronnie Hickman Jr.	5	3	0.0	0	2
Mohamoud Diabate	1	6	0.0	0	0
D'Angelo Ross	3	3	0.0	0	2
Rayshawn Jenkins	2	3	0.0	0	0
Jerome Baker	1	4	0.0	0	0
Sam Webb	2	2	0.0	0	0
Mason Graham	1	3	0.0	0	0
Tyson Campbell	1	2	0.0	0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	29/39	236	3	1	2	-3.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chase Brown	13	72	5.5	1.7
Samaje Perine	8	42	5.3	0.6
Joe Burrow	2	17	8.5	1.7
Ke'Shawn Williams	1	9	9.0	0.7
Joe Flacco	1	2	2.0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	8	10	96	1	26%	7.9
Tee Higgins	6	9	67	1	24%	-7.4
Chase Brown	4	6	18	1	16%	-1.8
Drew Sample	3	3	17	0	8%	1.3
Mike Gesicki	2	2	13	0	5%	2.2
Samaje Perine	3	4	10	0	11%	-2.0
Andrei Iosivas	2	3	10	0	8%	-0.2
Noah Fant	1	1	5	0	3%	-8.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
B.J. Hill	4	4	1.0	0
Cameron Sample	4	2	2.0	0
Tedarrell Slaton	2	3	1.0	0
Barrett Carter	2	3	0.0	0
Myles Murphy	2	3	0.0	1
Jalen Davis	1	3	0.0	0
Joe Giles-Harris	1	3	0.0	0
Daxton Hill	4	0	0.0	0
Geno Stone	2	1	0.0	1
Demetrius Knight Jr.	2	1	1.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -9.5
Closing total: 47.5
CLE moneyline: +350
CIN moneyline: -455

Bengals closed -9.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 38 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 37°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: CLE 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Zac Taylor

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.