For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2025 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 4, 2026 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Tennessee Titans

7

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

41

JAX -12.5 ✓O 46.5 ✓

Jacksonville Jaguars 41–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:40, JAX +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAX ↑TEN ↓
Q1 · 13:40TEN 0 — JAX 0JAX ball · 4th & 28JAX 59%

(13:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to TEN 42, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 13:40JAX +20% win prob(13:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to TEN 42, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.
  2. Q1 · 11:46JAX +13% win prob(11:46) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep right to 5-E.Ayomanor to JAX 19 for 39 yards (29-E.Murray).
  3. Q1 · 10:16JAX +10% win prob(10:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN-1-C.Ward was injured during the play.
  4. Q2 · 8:20TEN +9% win prob(8:20) (Shotgun) 10-B.Allen pass short middle intended for 5-E.Ayomanor INTERCEPTED by 26-An.Johnson at JAX 42. 26-An.Johnson for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:16TEN Touchdown

    (10:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN-1-C.Ward was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 7 — JAX 0
  2. Q1 · 6:08JAX Touchdown

    (6:08) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 11-P.Washington for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 7 — JAX 7
  3. Q2 · 11:50JAX Touchdown

    (11:50) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 85-B.Strange for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 7 — JAX 14
  4. Q2 · 8:20JAX Touchdown

    (8:20) (Shotgun) 10-B.Allen pass short middle intended for 5-E.Ayomanor INTERCEPTED by 26-An.Johnson at JAX 42. 26-An.Johnson for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 7 — JAX 21
  5. Q2 · 2:00JAX Touchdown

    (2:00) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 80-Q.Morris for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 7 — JAX 28
  6. Q2 · 0:03JAX Field goal

    (:03) 39-C.Little 67 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: TEN 7 — JAX 31
  7. Q3 · 1:08JAX Field goal

    (1:08) 39-C.Little 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: TEN 7 — JAX 34
  8. Q4 · 7:32JAX Touchdown

    (7:32) 33-B.Tuten right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 7 — JAX 41

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTitansJaguars
Offensive plays5355
Total yards194321 (edge)
Yards per play3.75.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.350.22 (edge)
Success rate30%47% (edge)
Dropback rate66%65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.570.42 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.08 (edge)-0.16
Third downs5/154/8 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)37 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1121 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers10 (edge)

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.35.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

22/30, 255 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

10.2 expected points added · +11.8% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Brandon AllenQB

17/30, 72 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-24.0 expected points added · -13.1% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Tony PollardRB

14 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

14 att, 32 yds, 0 TD

-3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Parker WashingtonWR

5/9 for 87 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 2.6 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Brenton StrangeTE

6/6 for 52 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 315-81:29Punt
2TENTEN 426633:22Touchdown +7
3JAXJAX 339624:07Touchdown +7
4TENTEN 247152:56Punt
5JAXJAX 204-21:30Punt
6TENTEN 31461:44Punt
7JAXJAX 186503:05Touchdown +7
8TENTEN 357303:40Defensive touchdown
9TENTEN 35521:05Punt
10JAXJAX 1410865:06Touchdown +7
11TENTEN 357141:53Turnover on downs
12JAXTEN 49100:03Field goal +3
13TENTEN 355-71:37Punt
14JAXJAX 2110364:02Punt
15TENTEN 15492:27Punt
16JAXJAX 2510465:51Field goal +3
17TENTEN 358162:40Turnover on downs
18JAXJAX 4911515:55Touchdown +7
19TENTEN 3514465:33Missed field goal
20JAXJAX 42301:55End of game

7 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 86 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brandon Allen17/3072011-24.0
Cam Ward3/3520004.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tony Pollard14483.40-0.9
Tyjae Spears3186.000.8
Cam Ward2115.511.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Elic Ayomanor31050030%-8.2
Chimere Dike3427012%1.4
Tony Pollard331709%0.5
David Martin-Robinson131409%-2.6
Tyjae Spears779021%-5.3
James Proche11503%-0.1
Chig Okonkwo252015%-3.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Cedric Gray350.000
Sanoussi Kane340.000
Micah Robinson340.002
James Williams230.000
Truman Jones230.001
Jerrick Reed II320.000
Cody Barton130.000
Erick Hallett130.000
Jihad Ward210.000
Darrell Baker Jr.300.000

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence22/3025530210.2
Nick Mullens2/2160003.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne14322.30-3.7
Bhayshul Tuten5234.610.7
Trevor Lawrence2115.501.4
Nick Mullens3-2-0.700.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Parker Washington5987129%2.6
Brenton Strange6652119%4.9
Brian Thomas Jr.3549016%2.8
Jakobi Meyers5644019%3.1
Johnny Mundt111603%1.0
Dyami Brown11803%1.8
Travis Etienne11603%0.8
Quintin Morris11513%1.8
Tim Patrick11403%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foye Oluokun350.001
Devin Lloyd230.000
Dawuane Smoot141.000
Eric Murray220.000
Ventrell Miller210.000
DaVon Hamilton210.000
Montaric Brown300.000
Jarrian Jones210.001
Antonio Johnson300.011
Christian Braswell200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
JAX -12.5
Closing total
46.5
TEN moneyline
+525
JAX moneyline
-750

Jaguars closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 34.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 48 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
55°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
TEN 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches
Brian Callahan vs Liam Coen

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.