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The Proof Engine
Compose any “if this, then that” question — get the historical rate, with every receipt. Of every WR season since 2009 with nine or more targets per game, how many finished Top-12? Ask it, and see every player-season that answers.
Loading NFL Rates
The Rate Sheet
Every rate below is computed from regular-season weekly stats — played games only, finish ranks rescored per format — and every one opens in the builder so you can inspect each qualifying player-season yourself.
Across the 2009 through 2025 seasons, 123 of 177 qualifying wide receiver player-seasons finished Top-12 in PPR — a 70 percent rate. Per-target questions clamp to 2009 because that is where weekly target data becomes reliable, and per-game thresholds count only played games.
Open this rate in the builder →From 2009 through 2025, 128 of 167 wide receiver player-seasons with at least 140 targets finished Top-12 in PPR — 77 percent. Raw target volume at that level has been one of the safest WR bets of the last two decades.
Open this rate in the builder →From 1999 through 2025, 189 of 233 wide receiver player-seasons with ninety or more catches finished Top-12 in PPR — 81 percent, the strongest single-threshold receiver signal on the sheet.
Open this rate in the builder →Of the rookie wide receiver seasons from 2009 through 2024 that commanded a twenty percent target share, 10 of 45 player-seasons across 16 seasons finished Top-12 in PPR the following year — 22 percent. A rookie target share is a real signal, but a year-two league-winner leap is far from automatic.
Open this rate in the builder →From 1999 through 2025, 14 of 193 rookie tight end player-seasons with at least eight games played finished Top-12 — 7 percent. That is the rookie-TE wall, quantified: drafting a first-year tight end for immediate production has failed roughly thirteen times out of fourteen for a quarter century.
Open this rate in the builder →Of the age-28-or-older running back seasons from 1999 through 2024 with at least 250 carries, 15 of 46 player-seasons across 21 seasons finished Top-12 in PPR the following year — 33 percent. Vanishing from the league counts as a miss, so there is no survivorship trim in that number.
Open this rate in the builder →From 1999 through 2024, 59 of 111 such player-seasons across 25 seasons came back Top-12 in PPR — 53 percent. The workload-collapse narrative is real but overstated: a true workhorse season has been closer to a coin flip than a cliff.
Open this rate in the builder →From 2013 through 2025 — snap counts are reliable from 2013 forward — 59 of 87 running back player-seasons at a seventy percent offensive snap share finished Top-12 in PPR: 68 percent. Snap share remains the cleanest single usage signal for backs.
Open this rate in the builder →From 1999 through 2025, 28 of 56 quarterback player-seasons with five hundred rushing yards finished Top-5 — exactly 50 percent. Rushing volume is the single biggest cheat code at the position, and it has been for over two decades.
Open this rate in the builder →From 2009 through 2025, 89 of 197 tight end player-seasons at an eighteen percent target share finished Top-6 in PPR — 45 percent. Target share is the gate for elite tight end production, but it is a coin flip, not a guarantee.
Open this rate in the builder →From 1999 through 2024, 130 of 313 Top-12 PPR wide receiver player-seasons across 26 seasons repeated the following year — 42 percent. More than half of every WR1 class gets replaced annually.
Open this rate in the builder →From 1999 through 2024, 45 of 130 Top-5 quarterback player-seasons across 26 seasons repeated — 35 percent. Paying a premium for last year's elite QB finish has missed roughly two times in three for a quarter century.
Open this rate in the builder →