NFL Rates

From 1999 through 2025, 134 of 155 such running back player-seasons across twenty-seven seasons finished Top-12 in PPR — 87 percent, the highest rate on this sheet. Read it as a definition of the bellcow rather than as a prediction: owning your backfield outright is something a coaching staff decides, and the ones who got that decision almost always paid it off.

From 1999 through 2025, 189 of 233 wide receiver player-seasons with ninety or more catches finished Top-12 in PPR — 81 percent, the strongest single-threshold receiver signal on the sheet.

From 1999 through 2025, 88 of 109 first-round rookie wide receiver player-seasons across twenty-six seasons finished outside the PPR Top-24 — 81 percent. Read alongside the 30 percent second-year rate, this is the shape of the receiver curve rather than a verdict on any one prospect.

The same forty-four rookie seasons from 2009 through 2024, read from the other end: 34 of 44 did NOT finish Top-12 in PPR the following year — 77 percent. It is one measurement, not two, and this is the framing that matters when someone is asking what to pay for the breakout.

From 2009 through 2025, 128 of 167 wide receiver player-seasons with at least 140 targets finished Top-12 in PPR — 77 percent. Raw target volume at that level has been one of the safest receiver bets of the charted era.

Across the 2009 through 2025 seasons, 123 of 177 qualifying wide receiver player-seasons finished Top-12 in PPR — a 70 percent rate. Per-target questions clamp to 2009 because that is where weekly target data becomes reliable, and per-game thresholds count only played games.

From 2013 through 2025 — snap counts are reliable from 2013 forward — 59 of 87 running back player-seasons at a seventy percent offensive snap share finished Top-12 in PPR: 68 percent. Snap share remains the cleanest single usage signal for backs.

From 1999 through 2025, 111 of 173 quarterback player-seasons with at least sixty carries finished Top-12 — 64 percent, across all twenty-seven seasons. Sixty carries is roughly four a game, and it has been a far lower bar to clear than five hundred rushing yards while still moving the finish.

From 2009 through 2025, 50 of 81 such wide receiver player-seasons across seventeen seasons finished Top-24 in PPR — 62 percent. The bad-offense discount is the most over-applied rule in fantasy: a receiver who owns a quarter of the targets has been startable on a bottom-ten team three times in five.

From 1999 through 2025, 47 of 78 quarterback player-seasons at four and a half thousand passing yards finished Top-5 — 60 percent. Note the twenty-two seasons that contributed: the 4,500-yard year barely existed before the 2010s, so this is a modern signal wearing a long window.

From 1999 through 2024, 183 of 313 Top-12 PPR wide receiver player-seasons across 26 seasons did not repeat — 58 percent. Injury, decline, a lost target share and leaving the league all count the same way here: the seat was not held.

From 2009 through 2025, 60 of 106 such wide receiver player-seasons across seventeen seasons finished Top-12 in PPR — 57 percent. Two conditions at once is where the builder earns its keep: the target share alone is worth far less than the target share on an offense that scores.

From 2018 through 2025 — box counts come from the charting era — 65 of 121 running back player-seasons finished Top-12 in PPR: 54 percent. Running behind a passing game good enough to empty the box is worth about as much as a coin flip, which is a smaller edge than the phrase suggests.

From 1999 through 2024, 37 of 69 such running back player-seasons across twenty-four seasons stayed inside the Top-24 in PPR the following year — 54 percent. The interesting half is the other one: nearly half of every twenty-seven-year-old RB1 was not even a startable back twelve months later.

From 1999 through 2024, 59 of 111 such player-seasons across 25 seasons came back Top-12 in PPR — 53 percent. The workload-collapse narrative is real but overstated: a true workhorse season has been closer to a coin flip than a cliff.

From 2009 through 2025, 59 of 112 fourth-through-seventh-round wide receiver player-seasons at a twenty percent target share finished Top-24 in PPR — 53 percent. Once the targets arrive, the draft slot stops mattering: this beats the first-round rookie rate by a distance, because a target share is evidence and a draft round is a forecast.

From 1999 through 2025, 28 of 56 quarterback player-seasons with five hundred rushing yards finished Top-5 — exactly 50 percent, across twenty-two seasons. Rushing volume is the single biggest cheat code at the position, and it has been for over two decades.

From 1999 through 2024, 65 of 131 Top-5 tight end player-seasons across 26 seasons repeated — 50 percent. Tight end is by a distance the stickiest position on this sheet: an elite tight end repeats half the time, an elite back under a third.

From 1999 through 2024, 52 of 111 workhorse running back player-seasons across 25 seasons missed the Top-12 the following year — 47 percent. Stated this way the workload question is honest in both directions: it is not a cliff, and it is not safe either.

From 2018 through 2025 — weighted opportunity needs air-yard data, which is only charted from 2018 — 64 of 140 wide receiver player-seasons at a 0.60 rating finished Top-12 in PPR: 46 percent. Eight seasons is a short window and the sheet says so rather than dressing it as a law.

From 2009 through 2025, 88 of 193 tight end player-seasons at an eighteen percent target share finished Top-6 in PPR — 46 percent. Target share is the gate for elite tight end production, but it is a coin flip, not a guarantee.

From 2018 through 2025, 16 of 36 such running back player-seasons across six seasons finished Top-12 in PPR. Thirty-six seasons is a thin cohort and six is a short window, so read this as a lead rather than a rate: it points at the workload surviving the defensive attention, and it is not enough evidence to price a player on.

From 2009 through 2025, 24 of 57 undrafted wide receiver player-seasons at a twenty percent target share finished Top-24 in PPR — 42 percent. Fifty-seven seasons is a modest cohort, so treat the gap to the day-three rate as unsettled; what the number does establish is that going undrafted has not stopped a receiver who won the targets.

From 1999 through 2024, 130 of 313 Top-12 PPR wide receiver player-seasons across 26 seasons repeated the following year — 42 percent. More than half of every WR1 class gets replaced annually.

From 2018 through 2025 — air yards are charted from 2018 — 41 of 108 wide receiver player-seasons at a thirty-five percent air-yard share finished Top-12 in PPR: 38 percent. Owning the downfield map is a smaller edge than owning the targets: the same receivers at a twenty percent target share convert far more often.

From 2009 through 2025, 126 of 336 wide receiver player-seasons at eight targets per game cleared twelve hundred receiving yards — 38 percent. This one asks for a raw total rather than a finish, so no scoring format enters it: eight looks a game is roughly a third of the way to a 1,200-yard season, not most of the way.

From 1999 through 2024, 45 of 130 Top-5 quarterback player-seasons across 26 seasons repeated — 35 percent. Paying a premium for last year's elite QB finish has missed roughly two times in three for a quarter century.

Of the age-28-or-older running back seasons from 1999 through 2024 with at least 250 carries, 15 of 46 player-seasons across 21 seasons finished Top-12 in PPR the following year — 33 percent. Vanishing from the league counts as a miss, so there is no survivorship trim in that number.

From 1999 through 2025, 48 of 150 player-seasons inside a top-fifteen receiver's first three years finished Top-24 in PPR — 32 percent. The counting is per SEASON, not per player: three seasons of one man are three rows here, so this is how often one of those years landed, not how often the player eventually arrived.

This is the question as it was asked, and the honest answer is that it is too thin to put a percentage on. Combine results begin with the 2000 class, and 461 of 990 running-back careers since then have a recorded forty. Of those, 27 ran 4.37 or faster and 22 of them are finished careers — 7 produced at least one Top-12 PPR season, 15 Top-12 seasons between them. A rate over 22 careers moves four and a half points every time one more back retires, so the proof prints the count and the faces instead. Loosen the line to 4.40 and it turns back on.

From 1999 through 2024, 41 of 130 Top-5 running back player-seasons across 26 seasons repeated — 32 percent, the least repeatable elite finish on the sheet. Vanishing from the league counts as a miss.

From 2013 through 2025 — the snap-count window — 45 of 144 tight end player-seasons at an eighty percent offensive snap share finished Top-6: 31 percent. The lesson is the shape of the position: a tight end can be on the field for essentially every play and still be blocking on most of them, which is why snap share reads so much weaker here than it does for a back.

From 1999 through 2025, 17 of 55 first-round rookie running back player-seasons across twenty-three seasons finished Top-12 in PPR — 31 percent. A first-round back is roughly two and a half times likelier to be startable as a rookie than a first-round receiver, which is the clearest positional split on the sheet.

From 1999 through 2025, 32 of 106 second-year first-round wide receiver player-seasons across twenty-six seasons finished Top-24 in PPR — 30 percent. That is a real year-two jump against the 19 percent rookie rate, and it is still under a third: the second-year breakout is a tendency, not a schedule.

Of the tight-end careers since 2000 with a recorded three-cone, 59 ran 7.00 seconds or faster and 48 of those careers are finished — 14 of the 48 produced at least one Top-12 season, 29 percent, against 19 percent for every other tight end with a recorded time. Read the denominator first: only 191 of 638 tight-end careers in this window have a three-cone on file at all, and a missing drill is never counted as a slow one.

One notch looser and the cohort is real: 63 running-back careers since 2000 ran 4.40 or faster, 44 of them are finished, and 11 of those 44 finished a season inside the PPR Top-12 — 25 percent, averaging 0.80 Top-12 seasons apiece. Every other running back with a recorded forty in the same window hit 16 percent. Nineteen more careers in this cohort are still being played and are held out of that number rather than averaged into it.

From 1999 through 2025, 84 of 355 wide receiver player-seasons at age thirty or older with at least eight games played finished Top-24 in PPR — 24 percent, across all twenty-seven seasons. The receiver cliff is real and it is gradual: a quarter of these years were still startable.

Of the rookie wide receiver seasons from 2009 through 2024 that commanded a twenty percent target share, 10 of 44 player-seasons across 16 seasons finished Top-12 in PPR the following year — 23 percent. A rookie target share is a real signal, but a year-two league-winner leap is far from automatic.

From 1999 through 2025, 21 of 109 first-round rookie wide receiver player-seasons across twenty-six seasons finished Top-24 in PPR — 19 percent. Draft capital buys the opportunity, not the season: four out of five first-round receivers have not been startable as rookies. Draft slots are only known from the 1993 class forward, and player-seasons whose slot is unknowable are left out and counted rather than guessed.

From 1999 through 2025, 10 of 74 early-round rookie tight end player-seasons across twenty-seven seasons finished Top-12 — 14 percent. Premium capital roughly doubles the all-rookie tight end rate and still leaves the wall standing.

From 1999 through 2025, 12 of 178 rookie tight end player-seasons with at least eight games played finished Top-12 — 7 percent. That is the rookie-TE wall, quantified: drafting a first-year tight end for immediate production has failed roughly fourteen times out of fifteen for a quarter century.