Basketball is back in the state of Iowa. Both Iowa and Iowa State made it to the Sweet 16 and Iowa made it to the Elite 8 for the first time this century. There are plenty of NBA Draft prospects on those two teams, so let’s break them down.
Bennett Stirtz
Iowa Athletics
Bennett Stirtz started out at Northwest Missouri State where he played under Ben McCollum. He followed his coach to Drake last season, then to Iowa where, this season, he became one of the best PG’s in the country. Stirtz really got onto the scene at Drake last season where he helped lead the Bulldogs to 30 wins and a Tournament upset win against Missouri to make it to the Round of 32. Although they lost to Texas Tech, this marked their first Tournament win in modern NCAA Tournament history. This season, he helped lead Iowa to the Elite 8, including pulling off a major upset against #1 seed Florida and #4 seed Nebraska.
On Drives: 52/71 = 72.3%
On Layups: 80/116 = 69%
On Pullups: 18/29 = 62%
On Dunks: 9/9 = 100%
As you can see here, despite the fact that teams were trying hard to stop Stirtz this season, he was still really efficient. His efficiency around the rim is very good. The shooting volume was good. There’s a lot of colors, but pay attention to the volume. Didn’t shoot a ton from the corners but did take a lot at the top of the key and the rim.
This isn’t the most encouraging list, but a lot of these guys ended up measuring smaller than what Stirtz is. Obviously, the Stephen Curry mention will pop off the list. He’s obviously not Steph, but I also think he’s better than someone like Devin Carter, Jared Butler, or Kam Jones. Walter Clayton is a different type of player. However, as you can see, there's just not a great track record with this query. That being said, Stirtz turned the ball over less than anyone on this list. I think he’s a really smart floor general. I think he could end up being a starter, but I also don’t think he’s this star like some people see with him as an analytics darling.
Joshua Jefferson
Joshua Jefferson started out at St. Mary’s where he spent two seasons there. In his sophomore season, he became one of the best mid major players in the country. He transferred to Iowa State, where he continued to get better and was an All-American this season. He unfortunately sprained his ankle in the first game of the NCAA Tournament and this prohibited Iowa State from going very far in the tournament.
As you can see by the shot chart, he heavily relies on touches around the rim. He wasn’t used as a corner shooter because he was initiating the offense a lot of the time. If he’s a consistent shooter, he’s got a very good chance of being a rotation player.
Now, there’s some very loud names on this list. No, Joshua is not even in the same stratosphere of a prospect as Cameron Boozer, AJ Dybansta, and Cooper Flagg. However, I think he’s significantly better than Vincent Edwards, Dedric Edwards and Tres Tinkle. Joshua is primarily known for the defense going through college so I think that will translate. He’s strong and physical. There’s a very easy route for Joshua Jefferson to be a legitimate NBA player.
Milan Momcilovic
Milan Momcilovic was a former 4 star recruit who has played at Iowa State for three seasons. During that time, he has developed into one of the best shooters, not only in the country, but this season, had one of the best shooting seasons in NCAA history. He declared for the 2026 NBA Draft while also maintaining his eligibility and entered the portal. He has already committed to the University of Kentucky.
On Drives: 7/13 = 53.8%
On Layups: 23/30 = 76.7%
On Pullups: 5/16 = 31.3%
On Dunks: 1/1 = 100%
His 3PT shooting is a joke. Like truly. This is absurd! As you can also see, he does not get to the rim very well. The defense needs to get better. He needs to be able to move well enough to stay in front of defenders. If he can do this, then he should be able to stick in the league. Also, for as good of a shooter he is, the release is a little weird. I do wonder if he struggles to get it out as consistently early on in the NBA. It’s a very quick release, but it feels like it comes off pretty low. Either way, this is the best shooter in the class without much of a doubt. We’ll see if he gets on the floor long enough to prove that, though.
It’ll get you the looks, but as we see here, elite shooting doesn’t always translate. You really need to have something else that will get you on the court. Milan at least has a big body, which will help his chances. Veering slightly off topic, very interested in former Iowa Hawkeye Pryce Sandfort for next year. But, Momcilovic affects the offense so much that it’s worth seeing if he can become Sam Hauser.
Tamin Lipsey
The rugged PG from Ames. Tamin Lipsey stayed home at Iowa State where he’s been the culture setter for the Cyclones for the past three seasons. He broke out in his sophomore where he had the ball in his hands more. That changed to more of an off ball role the past couple seasons, but he’s been one of the best defenders and PG’s in the country. He played at the Portsmouth Invitational and the G League Elite Camp.
On Drives: 48/65 = 66.2%
On Layups: 78/126 = 62%
On Pullups: 7/16 = 43.8%
On Dunks: 1/1 = 100%
The big swing skill here for Lipsey is the shot, and it’s been really hit or miss. He’s strong and can get to the rim at a decent level, but if he’s not going to be respected as a shooter, I do wonder how effective he’ll be. He’s not like Jamal Shead where he’s a top 5 guard defender in the world. If it works, it’ll have to be as a 3-n-D guard and he’ll have to get really comfortable with picking up full court.
The blueprint is pretty clear here for someone like Lipsey. Jevon Carter and Jamal Shead are elite defenders who are super physical and strong. Lipsey hasn’t been that up to this point. He’s not near the offensive player Mario Chalmers, Tyler Tanner, or even someone like Chucky Hepburn was. He’s got to lean into that defense and shooting.
Other Notes:
The main other prospect on both of these teams was Alvaro Folguieras, who was in the first round of many mocks to start the season, including yours truly. Despite some flashes, it just didn’t work out with Iowa and he was a lot more raw than I was expecting. He’s heading to Louisville now where I do expect him to be better in that system. Another year of development and the second round is in the conversation.
Dynasty Notes:
Sifting over to a dynasty basketball perspective, let’s start with Bennett Stirtz . This will be an older guard who probably does go around where he goes in real life. There will be some fans that may reach on him and rightfully so. He might be really good as a rookie, it also might take some time. I think he’ll be a good player in the league but I wouldn’t be shocked if you can get him on a buy low in a year or two when he’s lost a lot of the “shiny new toy” luster. I’d still draft him the highest of this group as of now.
Joshua Jefferson should go higher than he does in real life depending on where he’s going. He has a very fantasy friendly skillset that will get some fantasy managers excited. If he can hit wide open 3’s, he should be a player that becomes pretty valuable early on. Honestly, if someone wanted to take him in the top 20 of a dynasty draft, I’d understand why.
For Milan Momcilovic , if he stays in the draft, this is a pick in the 21-40 range. It’s a pure shooting bet and if you can use Sam Hauser production, it’s a good bet for you.
For Tamin Lipsey , this is someone I would be interested in as a UDFA. A very good person to have in a locker room and if he can hit open shots, there’s a path for him to have success in the NBA.