The University of North Carolina certainly had an interesting year. It started out really well as Caleb Wilson emerged as one of the best players in the country. They started to falter a little bit in ACC play, and Caleb Wilson got hurt, which ended his season. They played VCU in the tournament and blew a 19-point lead to lose. We’ll see what happens with the coaching staff, but all things considered, it was a good year overall.
Caleb Wilson
Credit: Maggie Hobson/UNC Athletics
Caleb Wilson was a top high school recruit out of Georgia. He was a McDonald’s All-American and was expected to play for the FIBA U19 team. He was cut from the team and spent the offseason working on his offensive game. He immediately became the man for North Carolina, and it was apparent right away that he could be something special. He has the mindset of someone who doesn’t forget any grievance against him. He changes the background photo on his phone to something that will make him angry before a game. He showed hyper-competitive tendencies this year, and that will matter going into the NBA. He was also named an AP Second Team All-American this season.
Scouting Report
Drives: 12/19 = 63.2%
Layups: 47/81 = 58%
Pullups: 5/15 = 33.3%
Dunks: 67/77 = 87%
As you can see here, he’s incredibly reliant on his shots at the rim. He takes them at a very efficient level, but that’s the extent of his jump shot. He does not take many threes or shots outside of the paint. Obviously, the sell is the defense with Wilson, but the offense is going to need work in the NBA. There are outcomes where he’s just a skinny version of Obi Toppin. It’s not likely, but he’s going to have a harder time dunking everything in the NBA. I think he has some touch, but the shot is going to be the big swing skill with Caleb Wilson.
Obviously, there are a lot of names here, and many of them aren’t the same archetype as Wilson. The track record here is very encouraging for Caleb. You can see that his shot diet is basically that of a center. The defense has the potential to be special. It’s hard to see Caleb just completely fail, given his track record and the success of players who have been this good.
Henri Veesaar
Henri Veesaar is originally from Estonia but developed in the Real Madrid system. He originally committed to Arizona. He spent three seasons there, where he became one of the best big men in the country. He transferred to North Carolina primarily for minutes because of the emergence of Motiejus Krivas and Tobe Awaka at Arizona. He was the second-best player at North Carolina and was a perfect fit with Caleb Wilson. He has a decision to make because he did redshirt one of the years at Arizona, so he still has another year of eligibility left.
Scouting Report
*Not 100% accurate but you get the point
On Drives: 6/9 = 66.7%
On Layups: 62/95 = 65.3%
On Pullups: 1/3 = 33.3%
On Dunks: 58/65 = 89.2%
This is a very good shot chart from Veesaar. He was very good in pick-and-pop situations, as you can see with the threes at the top of the key. He was good around the rim and didn’t really take any bad shots. The offense will not be the concern for Veesaar. His offense is NBA-ready right now. It’s all going to come down to the defense and physicality. If he can be more physical on offense and defense, he could play the center position and be a very valuable player. Right now, he looks more like a four in the mold of a Jaren Jackson/Evan Mobley fit (I am not comparing them one for one). If teams see that physicality in workouts, he will go up the board a lot. If he doesn’t, he should go back, go get 3–3.5M in NIL, work on his body without causing it to hurt his fluidity, and that’s an easy first-rounder next season, maybe top 20.
Again, like I mentioned with Nate Bittle, the seven-footers who can shoot are going to be given a chance. Veesaar is a better prospect than a lot of these players, in my opinion. If I were to compare him to someone like Quinten Post, Veesaar just isn’t as physical as Post was. However, I think Veesaar was better on defense in terms of how to play defense. Post learned it in Golden State, which has made him a rotation player. That is the type of player I’d be looking at in terms of role.
Brief Notes:
I’ll just briefly go over Derek Dixon, Seth Trimble, and Jarin Stevenson real quick. The main guy to look at long term is Derek Dixon. He’s a 6’5 combo guard listed at 200 pounds. He took over the starting role in the second half of the season. This is an easy potential breakout next season and could be a top-20 pick next year.
Seth Trimble is a senior coming out. I was going to do a report on him, but honestly, while doing it, I realized that he probably isn’t an NBA guy. He’s 6’3 and 200 pounds. He’s a really good defender, but he can’t shoot, and he’s not a point guard. The defense is really good, but I’m not sure it is enough.
The only other name that’s somewhat interesting on that team is Jarin Stevenson. He’s a wing defender who can shoot. He will be a senior next year and probably gets a look. He’s been on the draft radar for a few years now.
Dynasty Outlook:
For Caleb Wilson, I think this is just clearly a big-time asset. Zach Reifschneider in his dynasty rankings, Caleb Wilson is a top-40 dynasty asset right now. This could rise in the pre-draft process. He’s projected to be the fourth pick in dynasty, but there’s absolutely a world where he ends up being a top-three pick and a top-30 dynasty asset in a few months. The fantasy skill set is very, very good, and I’m a believer in the person being a psycho in the gym. Caleb is someone who can easily make you pay if you have one of those top picks and decide to get cute with it.
For Henri Veesaar, if he stays in the draft, this is someone that I really like and would seriously consider taking in the 20s. It might take a little bit as he adjusts to the physicality of the NBA game, but long term, there are a lot of awesome indicators for Veesaar, and the film matches a lot of it.