I’m back with some more draft scouting. Let’s talk about some players in the Virginia/DC area. Wake Forest had expectations to make the NCAA tournament, and that failed miserably. Virginia Tech also had this goal, and while they were close, they lost some games down the stretch that cost them a chance. Then George Washington was expected to be a force in the Atlantic 10 this season, and they ended up being a disappointment. However, it does not mean there are not prospects on these teams, so let’s break it down.
Juke Harris
Juke Harris was on my radar during the summer as a potential breakout candidate. He was good as a freshman, albeit in limited minutes. He stepped in immediately as a starter and became one of the best players in the ACC. Personally, I’ve been higher on him than what I’d say the consensus is, but I also recognize that there are some holes in his game that could prevent him from getting drafted in the first round.
Scouting Report
On Drives: 37/61 = 60.7%
On Layups: 75/126 = 59.5%
On Pullups: 15/29 = 51.7%
On Dunks: 12/15 = 80%
The biggest thing is that the 3PT efficiency needs to improve. I love that he’s taking a lot of them, and I think he will shoot it well long term, but not great right now. He was very efficient in the mid-range this year as well. He can get to the free-throw line, he can rebound, and he has good size. The question is all about the defense and whether this archetype of player scales up to the NBA.
You’ll see what I mean here. There are some NBA players on this list, but not a lot of high-level players. He’s not as strong as someone like Mathurin. He’s not as good of a defender as Vince Williams Jr. He’s not as good of an athlete as TJ Shannon. I think someone like Caleb Martin would be a great outcome. He’ll need to improve the shot, and it might take him a while, but I could see an outcome like that. Juke should get a bit stronger as well. Now, does he decide to go back? I think he probably will end up back in school, but I’m guessing he gets 3M or so to transfer somewhere else. I’m just hoping, for his sake, that it’s a place that has a plan in place for him and knows how to use him.
Neoklis Avdalas
Neoklis Avdalas was in Peristeri last season while getting some NBA buzz. He was invited to the NBA Combine, where he played well but not enough to warrant getting drafted in the first round. He then decided to play college basketball and went to Virginia Tech. He got off to a scorching hot start against Providence, and then his play tailed off throughout the year.
Scouting Report
On Drives: 24/40 = 60%
On Layups: 40/64 = 62.5%
On Pullups: 19/49 = 38.8%
On Dunks: 7/8 = 87.5%
You can see in a lot of these shooting numbers that it’s pretty unacceptable. He really struggled to get to the rim this year and had to settle frequently. Thirty-nine percent from the field is really bad. The shooting form from three was pretty bad as well. People will bring up that Egor Demin was a bad shooter in college, which was true, but the shot form with Avdalas is off. We don’t have any indication that he’s hitting it in practice at a high level. The passing isn’t nearly as elite as Egor’s. Avdalas does have more weight on him than Demin, and even he struggled to utilize it. Also, I didn’t love Neo’s off-ball abilities that much. He needs the ball in his hands to be effective, and he hasn’t shown an ability to really be that.
Let’s just ignore Cameron Boozer and Cooper Flagg. Completely different types of players. TJ Cline never played in the NBA but played overseas. So there’s Egor on here, but Egor looks better than Neo here, even without the key differences given above. So is the idea Kobe Sanders? I loved Kobe as a prospect last year, but Neo can’t score like Kobe could. Neo should go back to school next season and work on being able to get by defenders and shoot. Even someone like Dalano Banton moved better than he did and was able to at least score a little bit. If Neo stays in the draft, he’s a potential second-round pick, but I imagine the money will be better in college than it will be in the NBA.
Rafael Castro
Rafael Castro is originally from the Dominican Republic. He started out his college experience as a decently known prospect in high school. He played two years at Providence but barely played. The advanced numbers still popped when he played, but it was such a small sample size that you couldn’t bank on it with great confidence. He transferred to George Washington, where he blew up as one of the best mid-major players in the country. He went back to the Colonials for his senior season, and while his minutes went down a touch, his production went up. He also missed a month of the season due to a foot injury.
Scouting Report
*Not 100% accurate somewhere but you get the point
On Drives: 10/15 = 66.7%
On Layups: 79/144 = 54.9%
On Pullups: 0/1 = 0%
On Dunks: 54/61 = 88.5%
I assume it’s pretty clear where he likes to take his shots. As an athletic lob threat, that’s who he could be in the NBA if he gets on the floor. Since he played at George Washington, how well did he play against good teams?
USF: 14/6/2/2/2 in 21 minutes in a win
Florida: 12/4/3 with 3 steals in 26 minutes in a loss
Then in two games against St. Louis:
12/18/1 with 3 steals and 4 blocks, 4 turnovers in a loss
7 and 8 with 5 fouls, loss in the conference tournament
Last year:
20/5/4 with 3 steals against VCU
21/9 with a steal and two blocks against St. Louis
12/11/4 with 2 steals, 4 blocks, and fouled out in an OT loss to George Mason
In totality, he’s not having huge issues with scaling up in the past two seasons. He’ll be someone to watch at Portsmouth or the G League Elite Camp to see how he looks. The numbers look fantastic, but it’s such a small sample against super high-level teams. Still, the ones we do have are good.
What you’ll also see is that a lot of these types of lob-threat players get a chance in the NBA. Yes, George Washington is the worst team on this list, but he should at least be given a two-way contract. If he lands on a bad team, that’s a potential “silly season” sleeper. There are a lot of encouraging names on this list, not named Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, or Derrick Favors. John Collins without the shooting is a possibility. Bruno Fernando, Jaxson Hayes, Nerlens Noel, Daniel Gafford, Dylan Cardwell, and DaRon Holmes are all on this list. He’s not as vertically bound as Bacot or Soriano, so I wouldn’t worry about that. Is he the defender that these guys are? I think the answer is no, but this will be someone that teams will pay heavy attention to in private workouts, especially on the defensive end.
Brief Notes:
I’ll briefly go over some other prospects from Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, George Washington, and, for the sake of it, Maryland and Georgetown as well.
For Virginia Tech this season, it’s Tobi Lawal. He’s an athletic defender who is good around the basket. He’s 6’8 and 215 pounds. I thought about doing a breakdown for him but didn’t get around to it. The offense is very limited, and the defense needs to get a bit better. Not a shooter. If he ends up going crazy in the pre-draft process, I’ll come back around and do his.
For next season, Amani Hansberry has been someone I’ve been interested in dating back to last year. He’s listed at 6’8 and 245 pounds. He plays a lot like a center, which has been the issue with him from an NBA perspective. However, he can shoot threes at a decent level—35.4% on 3.2 attempts per game. He will probably enter next year as a potential first-rounder on my board. The question will come down to how big he is.
For Wake Forest, the answer, frankly, is no one. Maybe Myles Colvin as an athletic guard, but I’m skeptical. For George Washington, Trey Autry, at 6’4 and 210 pounds, is interesting enough. He can shoot the ball well, but this is more of a long shot than some of the others.
For Maryland, the main guy to look out for long term is Darius Adams. He was a top recruit last season, listed at 6’5 and 175 pounds. He had a good year, even though the offense was a complete whiff efficiency-wise. Long-term piece. Andre Mills also had a bit of a breakout this year at 6’4 and 205 pounds. Decent potential as a shooter. Will be interesting to monitor.
For Georgetown, it’s basically just KJ Lewis. 6’4, 210, athletic, strong defender. Showed some improvement as a shooter and scorer, but not enough to warrant draft buzz this year. He will get looks next year.
Dynasty Outlook:
For Juke Harris, if he stays in, I think this is a very good target in the 21–45 range. There’s potential for fantasy upside but also a solid chance to be a role player if it hits. I wouldn’t be overspending on him, but if you do end up drafting him, make sure you go in with the idea that it might take a year or two.
For Neo Avdalas, if he stays in the draft, I think the 25–45 range is a smart bet. I’d be way more comfortable on the latter part of that, and you’d want a rebuilding team to take him. This one might take a little while if he comes out. If it works, there’s potential for a good all-around wing.
For Rafael Castro, this is a very good flyer in the 41–60 range. Should he go undrafted, he’s someone who should get picked up due to the potential fantasy upside. If he gains some steam during the pre-draft process, maybe we enter the 30s, but I wouldn’t be overpaying. There’s a chance this might just be a “silly season” big, which has value to contenders who have a late pick in the 50s and the ability to stash him.