The Houston Cougars had another productive year. They made it to the Sweet 16 before getting beat by Illinois. They have a nice crop of prospects that could end up playing in the NBA. So, let’s go break them down!
Kingston Flemings
The breakout star of the season for the Cougars was Kingston Flemings. He was a four star recruit that was seen more as a multi-year guy, especially after they brought Isiah Harwell as a five star recruit at the same position. Instead, Flemings won the starting job and immediately emerged as their best player. He really started getting top 5-10 buzz after the Tennessee game where he was laughably dominant against a high level defense.
On Drives: 44/79 = 55.7%
On Layups: 78/141 = 55.3%
On Pullups: 56/118 = 47.5%
On Dunks: 11/13 = 84.6%
I know people are going to see the comparisons and freak out about him that high. Frankly, he’s a significantly better prospect than Nembhard. Anyway, looking to the shot chart, he’s pretty efficient from all areas of the floor. His ability to hit pull up jumpers is among the best in his class. He shows up in the clutch and has hit some big time shots. Something I want to emphasize: everything we hear about Kingston intel-wise is great. I haven’t heard a single bad thing about him. He’s even talked about how during the summer, he was benched for the student managers in practice because he wasn’t giving effort. Instead of sitting and pouting, he put in more effort and became the best player on the team. I think it’s incredibly telling that Kelvin Sampson and that veteran roster trusted him to lead the offense and put the ball in his hands in the clutch. Sampson and the team showed it on and off the court all the time: they think he’s a special player.
Now, the new elephant in the room: the Combine measurements. Yes, he came in a bit shorter than I was expecting. I was hoping for a 6’5-6’6 wingspan, but he’s basically at 6’4. On film, you can tell he’s not super long. Still, he’s just so athletic and smart that he can get those deflections without ideal length. I feel very confident that he’s going to be an impactful player as a rookie. Not saying that he’s going to be this big time star, but I think he will be good starting out. In time, there are some more star-like outcomes, especially if the shot comes around. At that point, he becomes a pull-up threat wherever he goes. With his speed and passing ability, there’s a real shot he ends up being a bit like a De’Aaron Fox. I’m not banking on it, but you can see the flashes of it. Flemings can play off the ball as well, so he can play alongside other stars.
As you can see, there’s a lot of really good role players on this list, but pay extra attention to the freshmen (shoutout Brayden Burries). Reed Sheppard was the 3rd pick in 2024. Marcus Smart went 6th in 2014. Both had other outlier traits, but I think Flemings is a bit of a mix of both. The other thing that’s notable here? Donovan Mitchell, who Kingston has a bit of in his game. He’s not nearly as long as Donovan, which is a key differentiator in the range of outcomes, but the point still stands.
Chris Cenac Jr.
Chris Cenac is a top ranked high school recruit who was ranked that high mainly due to potential. In high school, one of the biggest concerns was his motor. So, he went to go play for Kelvin Sampson, who forced him to play hard. He was shaky at the start of the season but improved towards the end. You can still see the potential that he has even though it’s still theoretical.
On Drives: 0/2 = 0%
On Layups: 18/31 = 58%
On Pullups: 3/6 = 50%
On Dunks: 31/32 = 97%
Cenac was not a big focal point of the offense to the betterment of the team. He played well on defense and in doing the dirty work. It’s worth nothing that Cenac could’ve gone anywhere where it would’ve been way more comfortable but actively chose to be uncomfortable and play with this rugged Houston team. Kelvin Sampson is a coach with very high expectations that doesn’t hold back. What he’s said about Cenac up to this point is that “He’ll be a good player in 6 years.” Frankly, I agree to an extent. I think it could be even quicker than that if he ends up with the right team but there’s a lot that needs to be refined. He’s someone that I think could’ve used another year of college, but that never really seemed to be in the cards.
Yeah, you could say this group of players is pretty good. All of them got a serious look in the NBA at minimum and many of them stuck around. Jontay Porter didn’t (for obvious reasons) but his injuries also prevented him from coming out sooner. Everyone else is either young, in this class, or stuck around. Even Austin Daye had a few cups of coffee around the league on a 6-year career. Cenac is not as good of a prospect as most of these guys but you have to feel good on some level that he’ll still be a rotation player on the lower end.
Emanuel Sharp
Emanuel Sharp is a hard nosed guard that embodies Kelvin Sampson and his style. He’s a high level shooter that can let it fly from anywhere on the court. He’s strong and physical on defense and he can move well laterally. The question is if he can do anything else.
On Drives: 19/29 = 65.5%
On Layups: 31/49 = 63.3%
On Pullups: 14/41 = 34.1%
On Dunks: 2/2 = 100%
So as you can see here, the 3PT attempts are through the roof for Sharp. He’s a lot more comfortable letting it fly near the top of the key and those 3’s are not on the line. The real question is whether or not he can do anything when driven off the line. Can he attack a closeout? He got better at it this year, but does that translate up? The other big issue there is that he’s really small and not very long.
The track record for players like this isn’t great. He’s nowhere near the prospect Donovan Mitchell is. Maybe he could be Gary Harris, but he’s still smaller. The name to me is Buddy Hield. Hield is not a good defender; Sharp is. So, if Emanuel Sharp could be 90% of the shooter Buddy is with defense, that’s absolutely a rotation player.
Milos Uzan
Milos Uzan started out at the University of Oklahoma where, in his sophomore season, he was expected to break out and be one of the big time stars in college. That did not happen. That breakout came after a transfer to Houston and some time in said system. After Kelvin Sampson changed his playbook to include more ball screens, Uzan was one of the best players in the country and helped lead the Cougars to the title game. He came back for his senior season after withdrawing from the draft last year, and this year we saw a bit of a step back in terms of production. A lot of Uzan’s thunder was taken by the emergence of Kingston Flemings.
On Drives: 23/39 = 59%
On Layups: 30/53 = 56.6%
On Pullups: 15/50 = 30%
On Dunks: 0/0 = 0%
So, the big thing for me with Uzan is he really needed to improve the 3PT shot and be more assertive as a scorer to boost his NBA chances. He did increase his 3PT volume which was a good sign, but the efficiency dropped. He just didn’t really step up with the opportunities he was given. It’s a tough call because he’s got plenty to like: he’s a smart player, the intel is good, the tools are there, the defense is there. Worth mentioning for people who remember: Andrew Nembhard was a bit of a headache in college and it didn’t really end up mattering. Uzan didn’t really stand out at the combine when he got that chance, either.
Then, just making a simple query for players at his size that shot 3’s, had a good A/TO and were impactful on some level, all of these guys got a chance. Cam Spencer and Landry Shamet are the two big hits here but both of them were also insane shooters. Kam Jones wasn’t a good shooter and he’s really struggled to get on the floor with the Pacers. The shot needs to be there if Uzan is going to be an NBA player.
Quick Hits
There are two others players that I’ll briefly mention on the University of Houston.
We will see Joseph Tugler in the draft next year. JoJo might be a top 30 defender in the entire basketball world right now. He’s got a reported 7’6 wingspan at 6’8. He’s strong and move very well. The problem is the offense is so bad right now. Like, struggling to hit floaters at the basket bad. He’ll probably be drafted in the second round off the defense alone next year.
The other big time high school recruit that Houston got was Isiah Harwell . He had an ACL injury in high school and I think he was probably getting his feet under him a bit this year. He is transferring home to Gonzaga where I expect him to break out on some level this year. He’s a good shooter and scorer. I get some Norman Powell vibes from him.
Dynasty Outlook
Let’s start with Flemings . I think the range starts at 5, but will probably be on the latter half of the top 10. Either way, I feel very good about him in that 5-10 range, especially if you’re looking for someone who could get defensive stats and have some room for upside. He’s probably the best guard prospect in the draft for that. If he ends up in Brooklyn, I think there’s a chance he ends up being really awesome from Day 1. They don’t have anyone with his speed and Kingston would take real advantage of that.
Now with Cenac , I think the range is wide-open from 11-30 both in real life and dynasty. If a team falls in love with him as a prospect, I think it could make some sense to go for him on the very high end. If you’re a team that’s in the middle that’s either looking to go into a rebuild or take a lottery ticket swing to get better, Chris Cenac might be one of the best targets. Personally, I’d rather swing on him than Nate Ament but I know NBA teams won’t. You also might have to be patient with Cenac before you get any real value out of him. So if you take him, you have to understand that there’s a real chance that his stock will drop and you might be tempted to sell. If you’re a manager that loves to make trades, you can be impatient from time to time, or you tend to react pretty heavily to a one season sample instead of the priors, STAY AWAY FROM CHRIS CENAC. There’s easy potential for you to take him, sell him low, and then he explodes. The other side of this coin is that there’s a chance that Chris Cenac is a buy low candidate given the priors of the HS rankings and how Houston used him. If he starts buzzing like crazy during the pre-draft process, that might be a sign to see a surprise on draft night. I know I spent a lot of time here on Cenac, but understand that this is someone that needs to have correctly calibrated expectations. Otherwise, you could end up making a big mistake.
For Sharp and Uzan, these are solid second rounders. Sharp should good drafted in deeper leagues, solidly in the 35-60 range. Uzan probably goes undrafted, but there could be an upside swing for a rotation player if it works.
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