Time to break down two red teams that are staples in college basketball. Louisville made it to the Round of 32 this year. It was a disappointing year, but the injuries to Mikel Brown impacted their season. With Indiana, they just disappointed. Not much else to it. Let’s break down their prospects.
(Note: This was written a couple months ago. Just reuploaded)
Mikel Brown Jr.
Louisville Athletics
Mikel Brown burst onto the scene early in the cycle at the FIBA U19s, where he was the best player on the team, which included someone named AJ Dybantsa. You saw the potential for him to be an athletic, lethal scoring guard who can really run the pick and roll. This season at Louisville, you saw flashes of it, but it wasn’t consistent. The process has been good this year when you watch the film; the shot just didn’t go in this year, and he had injuries.
Scouting Report
On Drives: 30/47 = 63.8%
On Layups: 35/57 = 61.4%
On Pullups: 17/40 = 42.5%
On Dunks: 10/12 = 83.3%
So while Mikel finished well around the rim, he didn’t really get to the rim that much. As you can see from the shot chart, it is very reliant on hitting 3s right now, and he needs to hit more of those shots to really be able to make his mark. He needs to get stronger for both his ability to get to the rim and on defense. Once he does, he could be a real threat as a scorer.
Honestly, this query doesn’t really accurately represent who he is as a prospect. A reason for that is because Mikel has had such a weird year. If he continues to shoot like this, then it could get pretty dicey, but if he really starts to improve the efficiency, we could really be rocking. Something to think about here as well, which I haven’t really been able to figure out yet: Is he like Tyrese Maxey, where the process looks good but the shot hasn’t been good? I honestly can’t rule it out. Also, he only has one offensive rebound on the year which isn’t ideal.
Ryan Conwell
Ryan Conwell has been one of the best college journeymen over the past few years. He started out at South Florida, where he was solid. He transferred to Indiana State, where he really broke out. He then transferred to Xavier, where he really became one of the best shooters in the country. Then this season, he transferred to Louisville, where he was able to run the offense for Louisville when Mikel has been out.
Scouting Report
On Drives: 48/74 = 64.9%
On Layups: 72/121 = 59.5%
On Pullups: 15/31 = 48.4%
On Dunks: 0/0 = 0%
As extreme of a pure rim-and-3s prospect as it can get. He isn’t afraid to let it fly from deep 3PT range. He’s physical, he’s strong, and he knows what he’s good at. The question is whether or not the shooting is elite enough to warrant putting him on the court despite the fact that he’s undersized.
As you can see here, the players who are this small don’t have a great track record. Monk is just a way more athletic scorer than Conwell. Pritchard is more of a PG. The rest of the outcomes here are not that good. If he can develop a skill that isn’t shooting and scoring, he could be in great shape.
Tucker Devries
Tucker DeVries was a top 100 recruit in his recruiting class. He committed to play for his dad at Drake. After three seasons there, he was one of the best mid-major players in the country. He followed his dad when he took the job at West Virginia. He played well at the start of the year but got hurt. His dad then took the Indiana job, and Tucker went and played for the Indiana Hoosiers. It’s been a disappointing season this year, but he still has appeal as a shooter.
Scouting Report
On Drives: 11/22 = 50%
On Layups: 24/41 = 58.5%
On Pullups: 17/44 = 38.6%
On Dunks: 3/4 = 75%
I was really disappointed with DeVries this season. He had a good year last year, albeit in limited games, but this season, a lot more of the concerns became more apparent. I don’t expect him to shoot below 40% from the field again, but it’s another thing to look at. He’ll just be used as a spot-up shooter in the NBA, and I do expect that he’ll be good at that, but the defense is a problem. He just can’t move well enough at the NBA level. If he works on that, he could be a rotation player, but it might take a little while.
The 3PT shooters who can’t get to the rim don’t have a great track record. Now, it can work. However, someone like Spencer Jones was a much better defender. Baylor Scheierman can create and was a better shooter. Jamison Battle was a better shooter. Juzang might be the closest comparison here, but even then, he’s a better defender. Tucker needs to be a better shooter if this is going to work.
Lamar Wilkerson
Lamar Wilkerson started out at JUCO, where he played well. He transferred to Sam Houston State, where he turned into one of the best mid-major players in the country and one of the best shooters in Division I. He transferred to Indiana for his final season, where everything scaled up perfectly. He still has some issues, but there’s still appeal as a prospect. On top of that, he’s a stellar human being. He gave Sam Houston State a six-figure NIL donation after he transferred. His teammates love him, and teams will like having him in the locker room.
Scouting Report
On Drives: 41/65 = 63.1%
On Layups: 71/114 = 62.3%
On Pullups: 26/54 = 48.1%
On Dunks: 8/8 = 100%
Lamar Wilkerson was Indiana’s best player this season, and frankly, it wasn’t that close. He was efficient, he got to his spots, and he got to the rim even though he didn’t get to the line very often. He shot it really well from three this year. He can absolutely explode as a scorer. He elevates on his shot and is very good at shooting off the ball.
Now, the track record here looks pretty good, but Lamar isn’t the creator that Darryn is. He’s not as strong as someone like Coby White. He’s not the defender KCP or Klay Thompson is. At that point, what is he? Even Dalton is stronger than he is. Wilkerson was very efficient from 2PT range, and that does matter. This is one I’d be very interested in seeing in pre-draft workouts to see how it translates.
Other Brief Notes:
The only other prospect on either team who’s really a serious draft prospect is Adrian Wooley, a transfer from Kennesaw State who had his moments this season. He does need more time, but he could be a breakout candidate next season. Aly Khalifa is another potential option as a passing big, but I doubt he’s an NBA player. He’s just not tall or athletic enough.
Khani Rooths is a potential player long term, as well as a potential wing shooter. He’s a long term bet, but he just entered the portal so we’ll see where he lands next season.
Dynasty Outlook
For Mikel Brown, he’s a projected top-10 player in this class. I think the dynasty value should stay around this range, but the pre-draft process will be critical to see where his value is league-wide. He’s a decent fantasy player, but it’s going to come down to efficiency. This could be a very good buy-low opportunity, given where he started the season being mocked and the flashes we saw this season. Depending on your roster and whether it’s a rebuilding team or not, this could be an excellent flyer to get a big hit at a cheap cost.
For Conwell, DeVries, and Wilkerson, these are all flyers in the 30s and 40s. Conwell should go higher than the other two. I think a pick from 30 to 45 is a good bet. For Wilkerson and DeVries, this is a flyer from 45 and on. Between the two, I’d probably rather take a shot on Lamar Wilkerson, but it’s pretty close. They don’t have to be drafted but could be guys that you try to grab as UDFAs if you have the ability to stash.