Let’s break down the big-name prospects that played in the state of Tennessee this season. The University of Tennessee finished as a 6 seed while going to the Elite 8 for the third straight year.
Nate Ament
Nate Ament was a top 5 HS recruit according to many recruiting websites. He was consistently talked about as a potential top 5 pick entering the season by some sites. I was skeptical coming in, and sure enough, his freshman season transpired exactly as I expected. He struggled out of the gate, really had some questionable processing, struggled to get by defenders, and looked like a giraffe running around. Then during SEC play, he figured it out for the most part and had a stretch where you saw the potential. He also got badly hurt towards the end of the year, so I wouldn’t take too much out of the last few games, especially the Tournament game against Miami-Ohio since he probably shouldn’t have been out there. Another important update from the Combine has been this:
So, keep that in mind.
On Drives: 15/26 = 57.7%
On Layups: 45/96 = 46.9%
On Pullups: 5/22 = 22.7%
On Dunks: 11/13 = 84.6%
As you can see here, there’s a lot of worrying things. Nothing here is elite. He’s 6’10 and finishing 52% around the rim, 46.9% on layups, and 39.9% from the field at 6’10. It’s a profile with massive red flags that’s very concerning for an NBA translation. What I’ve said all year for Ament is that he’s basically like Cam Johnson trying to be Kevin Durant. He’s still super talented and I think that if he has the mindset to be one of the best off ball wings in the league, he could be successful. The defense was fine this year. He’s got good size and he was good for stretches, but he wasn’t anything really notable. Interviews will be very important for him and for teams to see the mindset.
Now, this isn’t the most encouraging query, but one of the biggest things I notice is that he’s getting to the line 13% more than Jake Cohen, who is second on this list. You see some young up-and-comers like last year’s 1st overall pick Cooper Flagg and Brandon Miller, and some good role players. You also see some other non-NBA players who aren’t the same archetype of player as Ament. This is why Ament is such a tough evaluation; there just aren’t players that are this size that can shoot and were at least impactful on the court to some degree. Either way, there will be teams that will take more chances on a wing with his abilities.
Ja’Kobi Gillespie
Ja’Kobi Gillespie started out at Belmont where he really broke out in his sophomore season. He transferred to Maryland where he played off of Derik Queen and excelled at that. Then this year, he transferred home to Tennessee where he was the go-to guy on a team that went to the Elite 8.
On Drives: 42/70 = 60%
On Layups: 86/150 = 57.3%
On Pullups: 7/20 = 35%
On Dunks: 3/4 - 75%
Ja’Kobi isn’t afraid to let it fly or get to the rim. He’s strong and stocky. The main issue is that he’s not very big. He can absolutely let it fly, pass the ball, and is strong but it’s just a very high threshold in order to make in the NBA.
It’s really hard to see the NBA chances, especially now that he’s measured at 5’11.75 at the Combine. He does have some good strength over some of these guys, he’s smart with the ball, but it screams more of a G League PG to me.
Felix Okpara
Felix Okpara started out at Ohio State where he was a very good center, but not a stat stuffer. After two seasons there, he transferred to Tennessee where he continued to be in that role and got even better on defense.
On Drives: 0/0 = 0%
On Layups: 27/57 = 47.3%
On Pullups: 1/1 = 100%
On Dunks: 41/48 = 85.4%
As you can see, he’s very very limited offensively and I don’t think that’s going to change. It’s a pure motor and defense bet. Normally I don’t compare prospects to rookies given that there’s a lot of variance for these rookies, but I couldn’t come up with a better comparison than Dylan Cardwell. Cardwell was someone that I liked but I was worried about the offense. Cardwell could play with another big which helped. Okpara could end up doing that but Cardwell has an insane motor. On top of that, is Okpara’s defense that elite? My answer is no. It’s really good but not what Cardwell has been this season in the NBA or last at Auburn.
On top of that, the track record for centers like this that can’t do much offensively is pretty slim. Charles Bediako is another interesting comp for him, but Okpara is bigger than he is. Okpara is worth a flyer for sure, but I do not think there’s any chance Okpara is a good fantasy player. Cardwell was in a reduced role at Auburn with players like Johni Broome, Tahaad Pettiford, Miles Kelly, and Chaney Johnson there. The teams Okpara has been on have needed offense and it hasn’t been that all that impressive.
Aaron Nkrumah
Aaron Nkrumah has been a late riser that’s going to start finding his way onto big boards. Nkrumah started out at Nichols and transferred after a semester to Worcester State. There, he became a Division III star. He then transferred to Tennessee State where he started for two seasons. This season, new coach Nolan Smith (Duke PG), really developed him and he became a very interesting prospect. He didn’t go to Portsmouth but managed to get into the G League Elite Camp as an injury replacement. Then he was the first invite to the NBA Combine. The improvement rate is one I’m very interested in. Since the end of the season, he’s gained 15 pounds and really been showing out.
(I won’t have the other stats here. I pull the data from code and since the programming can be hard on memory, especially for my laptop, I won’t have it. On top of that, since he played in a weaker conference and really didn’t have a ton of opportunities to play high majors, I don’t think the data would be as reliable.)
So, he’s finishing around the rim pretty well, which is what you want to see. The 3PT shots were mostly assisted but he had to create a lot. This is someone where the workouts will be critical for his evaluation. He’s got tools, and he was clearly one of the best players to come out of the G League Combine. That being said, the talent pool wasn’t very high at that Combine. If he starts playing well in workouts and buzzing, then this could be someone with his tools, could shoot up the draft board.
You can see the pathway for this to work. I purposely put the filters pretty far behind Nkrumah’s actual numbers since the competition level is not the same between these guys. If he shoots it, he could end up being like a Kentavious Caldwell-Pope or a Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Quenton Jackson has stuck around for a while and that could be a route that Nkrumah takes.
Dynasty Outlook:
With Nate Ament, this is someone that you could swing on in the back end of the top 10 and you might look like a genius. You also might look like an idiot. I’d be much more comfortable with taking him in the middle of the teens. If you’re a rebuilding team looking for a swing, this could be one. I probably won’t have Ament in any of my leagues though.
For the last three, their ranges are pretty similar. Personally, I’d rather swing on Aaron Nkrumah over Okpara and Gillespie but it’s a choice of preference. I think all their ranges start in the 40’s. Nkrumah is one that would make sense to swing on because the upside is there. For Gillespie and Okpara, I think it’s more as an undrafted flyer if you’re actually interested in taking the chance on either of them.
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