Ready to get back to it with some more scouting reports? Today, we’ll be trekking up to Nashville and talking about Vanderbilt University. Vanderbilt had a surprising year after breakout star Tyler Tanner led the Commodores to a 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. This is a very analytically-inclined team with a lot of potential fantasy options. Lots to talk about! Let’s get to it.
Tyler Tanner
One of this year’s big breakout stars is Tyler Tanner, who has become one of the most statistically dominant players in the country. He spearheaded one of the most fun teams of the season with his electric play, passing, defensive playmaking, and his athletic plays well above his size as a 5’10 PG. (Note: He did withdraw but when I uploaded this, he was still in)
On Drives: 60/93 = 64.5%
On Layups: 100/161 = 62.1%
On Pullups: 11/36 = 30.1%
On Dunks: 17/18 = 94.4%
(Note: Shot charts for Vanderbilt players are not 100% accurate due to court and arena design)
So, let me make this pretty clear from the jump. If Tyler Tanner was taller, he’d easily be in the top 10 for me. However, you watch the NBA playoffs these last few weeks, and you can clearly see all of these smaller players getting hunted on defense. Tyler Tanner is smaller than the small guys getting beat on defense. Yes, he’s got great defensive numbers, a lot like Reed Sheppard. However, this one is just a much harder sell due to the size. Yes, he’s athletic and he should be able to compete on that front. However, if he gets an injury that limits his athleticism at all, he’s not going to play. Teams have routinely told us that they aren’t valuing these pure PG’s. I do expect a small shift to head back towards that, but the margin of error is so small.
A very simple query here: BPM of at least 10 and 5’10-6’0. What do we notice? Well, immediately, there’s not much in the way of good NBA players, frankly. Ty Lawson played for a while, but it’s a completely different era now. The only strong example is Fred VanVleet who went undrafted, and I kid you not, has 30 pounds on Tyler Tanner, which is a big reason why he’s been able to hang defensively like he has. Tanner will likely measure in with a better wingspan than VanVleet (a +1.5 WS) and played in a better conference. It’s worth noting that, of everyone on this list, Tanner is the only SEC player. Yes, Tanner’s steals and block numbers are great, but is that really enough to be able to hang defensively? If he gets stronger, he might be able to. Currently though, I think the answer is no. If you’re watching the NBA playoffs and seeing how physical the league and its teams that are left are right now, how are you envisioning Tyler Tanner playing in the playoffs at all? There’s a route where this could work, but there’s more obstacles here than I would like to even admit.
Duke Miles
Duke Miles has been a college journeyman throughout his career. He had stops at Troy, High Point, Oklahoma, and then Vanderbilt, where this season, he broke out again and was a perfect guard next to Tyler Tanner. He’s one of the best players this season at getting steals. He played at Portsmouth and the G League Elite Camp.
On Drives: 28/45 = 62.2%
On Layups: 50/83 = 60.2%
On Pullups: 9/23 = 39.1%
On Dunks: 1/1 = 100%
Now, it is a small sample, but 14/22 from 3 is something from the left side of the court. He won’t be a high-usage guy in the NBA, but he’ll be someone that could end up fitting into a Jamal Shead type of role. Teams do seem less interested than the media consensus on him right now, but he’s intriguing if he can shoot it.
This is the archetype for Miles. You’ll also notice Tanner is on this list, which is interesting despite not being the same archetype, though. For Duke, the role is Jevon Carter or Jamal Shead. He’s strong and has a similar body to be able to do that job. There’s a lot of other names on there of players that didn’t work out in the NBA though.
Tyler Nickel
There weren’t many better shooters in the country than Tyler Nickel. After starting off at North Carolina, then transferring to Virginia Tech, he found a home at Vanderbilt. Head Coach Mike Byington recruited Nickel out of high school at James Madison and now he got to coach him at Vanderbilt. He showed flashes as a 3-n-D wing. He was invited to the Draft Combine.
On Drives: 10/13 = 76.9%
On Layups: 19/26 = 73.1%
On Pullups: 9/19 = 47.4%
On Dunks: 7/9 = 77.8%
The calling card is the shooting, and as you can see, he was not afraid to let it fly. He’s had 3 years of shooting 39.9%, 40.5%, and 40% from 3. He’s able to shoot off of pin downs, off curls, and catch and shoot. He’s got decent size and is able to use his chest to wall off players. The track record isn’t great for players who are more pure shooters like him, as we’ll note in this query:
While there is Klay Thompson, he’s an outlier of a shooter when he was in his prime. The rest of the players on this isn’t amazing. Maybe he is a more translatable version of Dalton Knecht, but Nickel is just a pure shooter. Knecht was a way more versatile offensive player. However, Nickel might be a way better shooter and just too good of a shooter to where it doesn’t matter.
Dynasty Outlook
For Tyler Tanner, this one is pretty tricky. If he’s in this draft, he should probably go in the top 20 if not the lottery in dynasty rookie drafts, just depending on where he goes. The fantasy translation and skillset is too good to pass up. There’s a very real chance that he’s enough of an outlier to where he just finds a way to succeed. What’s more likely is he ends up going back to school. If he becomes a very good shooter next year, someone will swing. If not, he’ll probably come out in 2028 and I’ll probably have him in the second round as a pure stat bet.
For Duke Miles and Tyler Nickel. Duke has the more fantasy friendly skillset, but Duke had to play his way through Portsmouth to get to the G League Elite Camp. Tyler Nickel got an NBA Combine Invite right off the bat. Given where we know where teams are at with these guys, I think their stock should be about the same. These two are solid bets in the 40-60 range and personally, I’d probably take a swing on Nickel first because I see the NBA vision more than I see it with Duke, but Duke could end up being a steal in that range of the draft, given his fantasy profile.
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