Running Backs
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Start: Aaron Jones (MIN) vs. MIA
Miami is one of the worst defenses in the league. They allow the most fantasy points to running backs (32.9), so even geriatric Aaron Jones should be able to take advantage and potentially outplay his consensus RB15 Week 4 ranking.
With lead running back Jordan Mason on injured reserve, Aaron Jones took on a heavy workload in Weeks 2 and 3, tallying 45 touches over those two weeks. His efficiency is modest at best, but that shouldn’t be a big concern given how Miami has averaged one rushing touchdown per game and over 95 yards per game to the running back position. In Week 2, Jones tore up the Chicago Bears run defense for 105 yards.
Jones was also targeted six times last week, and Miami is bottom eight in receptions allowed to running backs thus far. Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray isn’t being asked to rush much anymore, so Jones has an added check-down floor that should keep him safely in the RB2 conversation, worst case. He’s an easy plug-and-play option for me this week with sneaky RB1 upside given the volume he’s commanding and how bad the Miami defense is this year.
Sit: Saquon Barkley (PHI) vs. LAR
Saquon Barkley has struggled to get going through the first three weeks of the 2025 season. People fought hard against me this offseason for saying Barkley would be more of an RB2 than an RB1. Currently, he’s the RB33 of the season, averaging a disastrous 7.0 fantasy points per game. Granted, he did miss much of Week 2 due to injury.
That being said, Barkley was the only bright spot last week against the Chicago Bears defense. He averaged 5.5 yards per carry and totaled 82 rushing yards. More concerning is his lack of a role in the passing game right now. He’s averaging just two targets per game and is doing next to nothing with them.
The Eagles offensive line has been struggling, and the new offensive scheme seems to be going through its growing pains. Unfortunately, it won’t get any easier this week, as the Rams allow the 10th-fewest rushing yards per game (80.3) and the 10th-fewest fantasy points (17.4) to running backs.
Jalen Hurts will keep stealing goal-line touches, so unless something changes, Barkley just doesn’t have the elite upside he’s had historically. This week, he’s the consensus RB13, but I think he struggles to do it unless he’s fortunate in the touchdown department, and the Rams have allowed zero rushing touchdowns to running backs so far. The Eagles are projected to have the 26th-highest team implied total for the week (20.0), so Vegas also thinks the struggles will continue after getting embarrassed on this past Monday night.
Wide Receivers
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Start: Josh Downs (IND) vs. WSH
Josh Downs has benefited massively from fellow wide receiver Alec Pierce being out on the injured reserve. Over the last two weeks, Downs has averaged 10 targets per game and over 70 receiving yards. The touchdowns haven’t hit yet, but this kind of volume gives you over a 10-point fantasy floor.
In Week 4, the Colts face the Commanders, who allow the most receptions to wide receivers (15.3 per game), the third-most yards per game to wide receivers (191 per game), and the most fantasy points to the position (46.7).
To compound this, the Colts have the sixth-highest team implied total for the week (25.5), so Vegas projects this offense to put up points, which translates well to fantasy production.
Downs is in a beautiful matchup to keep his hot streak going and could even score his first touchdown. This sets him up nicely to outperform his consensus WR19 ranking for this week.
Sit: DeVonta Smith (PHI) vs. LAR
This is the second Eagle I’m telling you to sit this week. DeVonta Smith has been good thus far, as he’s the WR11 this year, averaging 16.17 fantasy points per game. He did fine for fantasy in the disappointing loss to the Chicago Bears this past Monday, catching six of his eight targets for 65 yards.
He missed practice Wednesday with a hamstring injury, so monitor this before setting your lineups. Hopefully this doesn’t limit him, as the Rams are a top-three unit in preventing receptions to the wide receiver position (9.0 per game) and top-six in limiting receiving yards to the wide receiver position (115.7 per game).
As I covered in the Saquon Barkley section of this article, Vegas has a low team implied total for the Eagles this week. Unless this turns into an unexpected shootout, Smith could disappoint if you’re expecting WR1 numbers from him in Week 4, especially if he doesn’t find the end zone.
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