I write my Start/Sit article by selecting someone outside the consensus top-12 at each position and explaining why I believe they can outperform expectations. Conversely, each week I pick a player inside the consensus top-12 and explain why I expect them to struggle to live up to expectations. Let’s dive in.
Quarterbacks
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Start: Jameis Winston (NYG) vs. WSH
Jameis Winston looked like a capable quarterback last week, and he gets an amazing matchup in Week 5 to build off of it. The Washington Commanders are third in fantasy points allowed at quarterback (22.5) and tied for first in passing touchdowns allowed per game (2.8).
Last week, Winston threw for 250 yards and three touchdowns. He also threw two interceptions, but that comes with the territory, as he’s never been afraid to just let it rip. He’s a quarterback you can stream in matchups like this. He’s currently ranked as the consensus QB16 this week, but with multiple quarterbacks either underperforming or missing due to injuries or bye weeks, it can make sense to stream Winston.
Giants running back Cam Skattebo has been inefficient on the ground, so it’s fair to expect most of their offensive damage to come through the air, as he hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1. The lack of a solid run game puts more emphasis on Wintson and the passing game to score in both neutral game scripts and when trailing, which could happen if Jayden Daniels plays.
Sit: Tyler Shough (NO) vs. MIN
Tyler Shough has been great for fantasy this year, as the pace of play and sheer volume of the Saints offense have helped boost his fantasy numbers. The Saints face a stout Minnesota defense this week, the best at preventing quarterbacks from scoring fantasy points per game this year (10.5). The Vikings defense loves to blitz (70%+) and also ranks fourth in sacks so far this year, so the pressure will be on Shough early and often.
The Saints have an implied total of just 20.0 points this week, which ranks 23rd. Tyler Shough comes into the week as the consensus QB10. While he certainly possesses top-12 weekly upside, he’s not a must-start star, like Josh Allen , that you have to start even if there are better options available to you, like Jacoby Brissett, who is going to have to throw a ton to keep up with the Lions offense while facing one of the league’s worst secondaries.
Tight Ends
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Start: Tyler Higbee (LAR) vs. BUF
Tyler Higbee falls into that TE2 range this week, where anyone here will likely need a touchdown to squeak into the top-12. Consensus has him as the TE18 this week, but I think there’s more optimism than this ranking implies.
With a bevy of tight end injuries, the Rams may have to rely on Tyler Higbee once again in their passing game. While Puka Nacua and Davante Adams will claim the lion’s share of the targets, Higbee still has chemistry with quarterback Matthew Stafford .
Vegas has this game tied for the highest over/under total at 54.5 this week, so exposure here could be very profitable. The Rams have the second-highest team implied total on the slate at 28.5 points, while the Bills have the fourth-highest at 26.0 points.
The Bills are slightly better than average at preventing tight ends from scoring fantasy PPR points per game (11.2). Still, in a shootout, Stafford has a player prop bet of 37.5 pass attempts. Tyler Higbee currently owns a 15.1% target share, so we can project ~5.5 targets in this contest. Historically, he’s paid off for fantasy when he sees this type of volume. If you’re desperate at tight end this week, Higbee makes sense as an upside shot in a projected shootout.
Sit: Tucker Kraft (GB) vs. CHI
Tucker Kraft is one of my favorite dynasty buys, as he’s a clear example that a return to play doesn’t mean a return to performance after a significant injury. Last year, Kraft was borderline elite for fantasy before the injury, and I expect him to return to normal by midseason, if not sooner. That being said, I think he could fall short of TE1 expectations yet again this week.
This season, Kraft is the TE21, finishing as the TE18, TE32, TE29, and TE5 in Weeks 1 through 4, respectively. While he crushed it against the Bucs last week, they are tied for 7th in fantasy PPR points allowed to the tight end position. The Packers and the Bears have their rivalry week, and the Bears should be a much tougher assignment for Kraft as their defense ranks third in preventing fantasy points to the tight end position.
While Kraft’s target share of 16% (17th) and snap share of 82.2% (9th) are close to his pre-injury numbers, his efficiency suggests he’s still ramping up after his ACL recovery. Currently, Kraft owns a 1.34 yards per route run, whereas last year he was cruising at 2.33. This dip in efficiency is likely a byproduct of his recovery, which is hurting his fantasy production.
The player prop for Jordan Love’s pass attempts this week stands at 32.5, so this projects Kraft for roughly 5 targets. If that is the volume expected of a tight end still ramping up from ACL recovery, then he becomes much more touchdown-dependent if he can’t be efficient with those touches.
I believe Kraft is a great talent once fully healed, but until we see his efficiency return to last year’s pre-injury level, I think there will be many hit-or-miss weeks, depending on whether he scores a touchdown during his continued ramp-up.
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