I write my Start/Sit article by picking someone outside the consensus top-12 at each position and explaining why I believe they can outperform expectations. Conversely, I pick a player inside the consensus top-12 each week and explain why I expect them to struggle to live up to it. Let’s dive in.
Wide Receivers
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Start: Carnell Tate (TEN) vs. HOU
Carnell Tate’s usage has been amazing so far, but Cam Ward's poor quarterback play has held him back significantly. Beyond the fantasy box score, stats like snap share, route-run rate, and target share all pointed to a breakout coming for Tate. Last week, Ward was finally mediocre at best, and Tate benefited massively! Tate finished the week as the WR11, catching 9 of 12 targets for a whopping 145 yards! That’s all without a touchdown, which he hasn’t scored yet this year.
Over four weeks, Carnell Tate has seen a 97.5% route-run rate, an 83.8% snap share, and a 29.6% target share. This is alpha-level usage, translating to 2.31 yards per route run. For reference, anything over 2.00 is good for a wide receiver. Titans quarterback Cam Ward just needs to be near league average for Tate to take advantage and dominate in fantasy, since the touchdowns will come eventually.
The Texans are currently allowing the most PPR fantasy points per game to wide receivers (44.6). While this game has the lowest projected scoring total (39.5) on the slate, the Titans are underdogs and will be forced to throw. Cam Ward has a 32.5-attempt player prop this week. Given Tate’s target share, we should expect around 10 targets again. With the Texans better against the run than the pass this year, and the Titans projected to be playing from behind, Tate has a great chance to build on last week’s performance and hopefully score his first career touchdown. He’s the consensus WR21 this week, and I think he has a strong chance to finish top 15, if not even higher.
Sit: Christian Watson (GB) vs. CHI
This will be my spiciest, call me a homer, take this week! Christian Watson and fellow Packers wide receiver Matthew Golden have benefited from their team’s lack of a run game and porous defense, which give them favorable weekly game scripts. Watson is the WR5 in PPR formats and averages 19.27 points per game. This week, they face a difficult matchup against the Chicago Bears' bend-don’t-break defense, which has allowed the fourth-fewest PPR fantasy points to wide receivers (25.4).
People will point to Watson facing a struggling Bears cornerback, Jaylon Johnson, which is fair. However, over the past three weeks, the Bears have faced Justin Jefferson , DeVonta Smith , and Garrett Wilson , all of whom averaged just 8.9 fantasy points vs. Chicago. Sportsbooks currently have Watson’s reception line at 4.5 and his yards at 57.5, which would put him near the aforementioned wide receivers' average of around 10 PPR points.
The Bears defense is on a four-game streak of 17 or fewer points allowed and is projected as the away favorite in this matchup. With the Bears emphasizing the run game on offense and the Packers among the worst teams against the run this year, time of possession could also limit the extra volume Watson owners will be looking for this week.
Consensus weekly rankings list Watson as the WR12 this week, but he’ll likely need a touchdown, a volatile stat to bet on, to live up to that projection. Watson has started to cede work to both an increasingly healthy Tucker Kraft and sophomore wide receiver Matthew Golden, who actually has a higher target share than Watson so far this year (24.7%).
While Christian Watson can still deliver a boom week, plenty of less volatile options remain, with a slew of favorable matchups inside the top-15 of wide receiver projections to exploit this week. Watson has had a great start to the season, but he’s still a volatile option against an underrated Bears defense.
Running Backs
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Start: D’Andre Swift (CHI) vs. GB
Swift found himself in Ben Johnson’s doghouse last week after fumbling, but a new week gives the 27-year-old running back a fresh chance to get back on track. Fellow running back Kyle Monangai is reportedly dealing with turf toe and a thumb injury, so his status for Sunday is questionable and should be monitored through the weekend. If Monangai misses, Swift becomes a borderline must-start option against a porous Green Bay defense in a game where the Bears are away favorites.
The Packers defense has allowed the third-most PPR fantasy points per game (28.9), third-most rushing yards (113.8), and second-most rushing touchdowns (1.8) to running backs through four games this year. With Caleb Williams out again this week, the Bears are expected to lean heavily on the run game.
This year, Swift has been solid for fantasy, ranking RB12 in PPR formats and averaging 15.88 points per game. He is also involved in the passing game, which bodes well for his fantasy floor in this matchup.
This game is not only a massive rivalry game, but it could have playoff implications as the 3-1 Bears are right on the heels of the 4-0 Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North. The Bears are favored and have the 10th highest team implied total on the slate at 24 points. Ben Johnson won’t toy around in this one, so he’s unlikely to put it all on backup Tyson Bagent’s arm. Last week, they had a pass rate 10.2% below expectations, indicating a preference for the run. I expect more of the same this week.
Swift is the consensus-ranked RB13 this week, but is in prime position to exceed projections and finish as a clear RB1. If Monangai plays, it may hurt Swift’s projections, but turf toe has been shown to drastically impact a running back’s performance, so it shouldn’t scare you off Swift. Swift should get his normal workload here, as the team aims to keep Monangai healthy for the season.
Sit: Derrick Henry (BAL) vs. ATL
Lamar Jackson is unlikely to play this week after sustaining an ankle injury last week. That’s a massive blow to the entire Baltimore offense, as backup Tyler Huntley isn’t nearly as talented. While Baltimore could lean on the run game to take pressure off Huntley, the Atlanta defense will likely scheme for it and stack the box against the 32-year-old running back.
Atlanta has been good at limiting fantasy points to running backs this year, ranking sixth with just 16.9 PPR points allowed to the position. To make matters worse, the Ravens are projected 23rd in team implied total this week. Henry has had to do most of the heavy lifting for his rushing production, as his offensive line isn’t helping. He's averaged 1.01 yards before contact, and Atlanta’s defense allows only 48.3 rushing yards per game.
He’s the consensus RB8 this week, but I think that is very optimistic given the situation. He should be regarded much more as a volume-based RB2, not a locked-in RB1. This game could get ugly fast, and while Henry can catch passes, it’s not his calling card, so the floor is fairly low this week.
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