Last year it was guys like Brian Thomas Jr., Saquon Barkley, and Ashton Jeanty. Players drafted at peak hype who couldn't live up to the price tag. The same thing is happening right now with these six names.
Here are the players I'm fading at their current ADP in 2026.
Christian McCaffrey: 1.05 ADP
The history is damning, and it doesn't care how talented Christian McCaffrey is.
Only two of the last thirteen RB touch leaders have finished top 12 the following season. One of them was McCaffrey himself in 2025. The other is the exception that proves the rule. Eleven of thirteen times, the RB touch leader regresses. That's not a small sample. That's a pattern.
And here's the stat that should stop every McCaffrey drafter cold: no running back has ever repeated as PPR RB1 overall in back to back years. Not once. In the entire history of the format. You're being asked to pay 1.05 for a player attempting something that has literally never been done.
The talent is real. The situation is real. The price is not.
At 1.05, I'd rather have Amon-Ra St. Brown or Justin Jefferson. Receivers with more consistent week to week floors and no historical gravity working against them.
Would Prefer:
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Justin Jefferson
De'Von Achane: 1.12 ADP
The situation around De'Von Achane has completely collapsed, and the ADP hasn't adjusted.
The Dolphins are projected for 4.5 wins in 2026. They are the current worst offense in the NFL. Arguably the worst overall team, too. That is the environment Achane is playing in. Volume gets harder to come by when your team is trailing by three scores every week and the game script forces you into the air.