Last year it was guys like Brian Thomas Jr., Saquon Barkley, and Ashton Jeanty. Players drafted at peak hype who couldn't live up to the price tag. The same thing is happening right now with these six names.
Here are the players I'm fading at their current ADP in 2026.
Christian McCaffrey: 1.05 ADP
The history is damning, and it doesn't care how talented Christian McCaffrey is.
Only two of the last thirteen RB touch leaders have finished top 12 the following season. One of them was McCaffrey himself in 2025. The other is the exception that proves the rule. Eleven of thirteen times, the RB touch leader regresses. That's not a small sample. That's a pattern.
And here's the stat that should stop every McCaffrey drafter cold: no running back has ever repeated as PPR RB1 overall in back to back years. Not once. In the entire history of the format. You're being asked to pay 1.05 for a player attempting something that has literally never been done.
The talent is real. The situation is real. The price is not.
At 1.05, I'd rather have Amon-Ra St. Brown or Justin Jefferson. Receivers with more consistent week to week floors and no historical gravity working against them.
Would Prefer:
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Justin Jefferson
De'Von Achane: 1.12 ADP
The situation around De'Von Achane has completely collapsed, and the ADP hasn't adjusted.
The Dolphins are projected for 4.5 wins in 2026. They are the current worst offense in the NFL. Arguably the worst overall team, too. That is the environment Achane is playing in. Volume gets harder to come by when your team is trailing by three scores every week and the game script forces you into the air.
His best fantasy season finish is RB5. At 1.12, you are paying for his ceiling. Not his floor, not his median outcome. His absolute best-case scenario. That's not how you build a championship roster.
There are legitimate RB1s available at lower prices. Saquon Barkley, Ashton Jeanty, Chase Brown. All of them offer comparable or better upside in far more stable situations. The market is giving you options. Take them.
Would Prefer:
• Saquon Barkley
• Ashton Jeanty
• Chase Brown
Drake London: 2.08 ADP
Four years in the league. One top 18 WR season finish.
That's the Drake London resume. In 62 career games, he has produced just 14 total top 12 WR weeks. That's fewer than four per season on average, and that's being generous. The argument for London has always been about upside, about what he could become. But at 2.08, you're paying for a player who has never actually gotten there.
The quarterback situation makes it worse. London is working with Michael Penix, who is unproven as a full season starter, and the specter of Tua Tagovailoa still hanging over the franchise. Neither option inspires confidence as a fantasy-friendly passer. High weekly ceiling, sure. But ceilings don't pay for themselves when you're spending a second round pick.
George Pickens offers the same boom week potential with more physicality. Jeremiyah Love is a younger, cheaper play with a cleaner path to volume. Nico Collins is an established target hog at a more reasonable price. Any of them make more sense at 2.08.
Would Prefer:
• George Pickens
• Jeremiyah Love
• Nico Collins
Breece Hall: 3.08 ADP
The backfield situation in New York has changed, and Breece Hall's ADP hasn't caught up to it.
Look at the data. In 19 career games where Braelon Allen had 10% or more of snaps AND Isaiah Davis had 10% or more of snaps, Hall averaged just 13.8 fantasy points per game and posted an RB25 or worse finish rate of 42%. That's nearly half his games turning into near worthless fantasy outputs when both receivers are active. This isn't a projection. It's already happened, repeatedly, in his own career.
The Jets clearly believe in a committee. They've invested in Allen and kept Davis around for a reason. Hall can still be a high end RB when the game script is right, but the days of him commanding 20-plus touches in a clean featured-back role look increasingly unlikely. Paying 3.08 for a player with a 42% bust rate in shared-backfield games is a losing proposition.
Javonte Williams gave you RB11 production on a three-year commitment last season. Cam Skattebo is a true workhorse when healthy. Emeka Egbuka offers receiver upside without the backfield crowding concerns. All three represent better value at this range.
Would Prefer:
• Javonte Williams
• Emeka Egbuka
• Cam Skattebo
DJ Moore: 4.08 ADP
This one is genuinely hard to understand.
DJ Moore is 29 years old and on his third team in five years. He just finished as WR35 across 17 games played. A full season of underwhelming production. And now he's heading to Buffalo, a franchise that has historically been unable to produce a fantasy relevant WR1. The Bills' offensive identity is built around the run game and Josh Allen's legs. Wide receivers don't eat in Buffalo the way they do everywhere else.
There is no angle here that makes 4.08 defensible. Age, team history, and last year's results all point in the same direction. You are paying a mid-fourth for a declining 29 year old going to the one destination in the NFL most likely to suppress his value further.
Quinshon Judkins is a workhorse back with RB1 upside at a comparable price. Ladd McConkey is younger, cheaper, and in a better situation. Tyler Warren is one of the most exciting tight end prospects in recent memory. Any of these picks ages better than DJ Moore to Buffalo.
Would Prefer:
• Quinshon Judkins
• Ladd McConkey
• Tyler Warren
Jameson Williams: 5.08 ADP
The ceiling is real. The floor is the problem.
Last season, Jameson Williams posted zero fantasy points in Week 7 on 85% snap share. Then he did it again in Week 12 on 97% snap share. A player who can be on the field for nearly every offensive snap and still produce nothing is the definition of a low floor asset. That's not bad luck. That's a usage pattern built into who he is and how Detroit deploys him.
The explosive plays are coming. The nuclear ceiling weeks are real. But at 5.08, you're paying for consistency he hasn't shown yet. The variance is too high and the floor too dangerous for this price point.
Bhayshul Tuten is a more efficient, more reliable play with a cleaner path to volume. Terry McLaurin has proven top 24 production you can count on. Rome Odunze is younger with a higher trajectory and a better supporting cast. All three give you more certainty for the price.
Would Prefer:
• Bhayshul Tuten
• Terry McLaurin
• Rome Odunze
The Bottom Line
The draft board looks obvious right now. It never is.
McCaffrey. Achane. London. Hall. Moore. Williams. These six names are being priced on reputation and upside rather than realistic 2026 outcomes. The history, the situations, and the backfield competition all say the same thing. There are better values available at every single spot.
Fade the hype. Build with players the market is undervaluing. That's how you win.
I'm posting fantasy football content every day to help you win. Follow @JoeOrrico and @NoExpertFS